Tipps Alianza Petrolera Atletico Nacional Primera A 18/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Atletico Nacional wins the match.

1. Atletico Nacional has a better offensive and defensive potential: on average, they score and concede 1.2 goals per away match, compared to only 0.6 goals scored by Alianza Petrolera at home, who also concedes an average of 2.4 goals per match. This indicates a better overall performance by Atletico Nacional.

2. Recent win statistics favor Atletico Nacional: Although Atletico has won and drawn in similar proportions to Alianza in their last 5 matches (20% win rate, compared to 20% for Alianza), the probability data for this match give Atletico Nacional a winning chance of 40.74% against only 30.25% for Alianza Petrolera.

3. Atletico Nacional’s recent away matches show better defensive performance: In 3 out of their last 5 away matches, Atletico Nacional did not concede any goals (against Independiente Medellin, Santa Fe Bogota, and Junior Barranquilla). This demonstrates a strong defense that could contain Alianza Petrolera’s home attack, especially considering the latter has failed to score in three of their last five home matches.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Low offensive potential: The statistics of both teams show an average score of less than 1.5 goals per match. Alianza Petrolera scores an average of 0.6 goals per match at home, while Atletico Nacional scores an average of 1.2 goals per match away.

2. Strong defensive performance: Both teams have high defensive scores, with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match for Atletico Nacional and 2.4 for Alianza Petrolera. This suggests that both teams are well organized defensively, which could limit the total number of goals in the match.

3. Head-to-head history: The scores of previous matches between the two teams generally indicate low-scoring encounters. For example, most of Alianza Petrolera’s recent home matches have had less than 2.5 goals in total, while Atletico Nacional’s away matches also tend to be low-scoring.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Alianza Petrolera’s home goal statistics show a low average of 0.6 goals per match and they have scored in only two of their last five home matches. This indicates a weak offensive efficiency, further reinforcing the argument that both teams are unlikely to score.
2. Atletico Nacional also lacks significant offensive efficiency when playing away, with an average of 1.2 goals per match and scoring in only two of their last five away matches. This suggests they may also struggle to score in this match.
3. In the last ten home matches of Alianza Petrolera and away matches of Atletico Nacional combined, eight had less than 2.5 goals and six saw only one of the two teams score. This indicates a trend where the majority of these matches do not see both teams scoring, lending more weight to this prediction.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Atletico Nacional

1. Recent statistics from both teams show a tendency towards draw results, with Alianza Petrolera drawing in 80% of their last 5 home matches, and Atletico Nacional drawing in 60% of their last 5 away matches.

2. The average goals scored and conceded per match for both teams are indeed close to the predicted score of 1-1. Alianza Petrolera has an average of 0.6 goals per match at home, and Atletico Nacional has an average of 1.2 goals per match away.

3. Both teams have relatively high defensive potentials: 86% for Alianza Petrolera at home and 43% for Atletico Nacional away, suggesting that it is likely they will each only concede one goal.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Alianza Petrolera shows a moderate home performance with 20% of wins and 80% of draws. In five matches, they have scored 3 goals and conceded 5 goals. The average number of goals is 0.6 per match, indicating an offensive potential of 21% and defensive potential of 86%.

On the other hand, Atletico Nacional displays a similar trend away from home, with 20% wins and 60% draws. They have scored 4 goals, also conceding 4 in five matches. They present an offensive and defensive potential of 43%, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per match.

The probability of winning the match is higher for Atletico Nacional, with 40.74% compared to 30.25% for Alianza Petrolera. The draw has a low probability of 29.01%.

Based on the results and number of goals, there is a 66.67% chance of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match, but only a 41.98% chance for more than 2.5 goals.

The recent home matches of Alianza Petrolera have shown a tendency towards defeat, while the away matches of Atletico Nacional have mainly resulted in draws.

In conclusion, the match seems to favor Atletico Nacional, although it is likely that both teams will score few goals. Caution is advised when making a prediction.

The potential number of goals

Alianza Petrolera, at home, shows a weak performance with only 20% of wins. This is confirmed by a low number of goals scored (3 goals) and a high concession rate (5 goals). This translates to an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 86%.

Atletico Nacional, away, shares similar statistics. With 20% of wins and a draw rate reaching 60%. The club has scored 4 goals, conceded 4 goals, showing a balanced offensive and defensive ratio of 43%.

When focusing on the likelihood of success, Atletico Nacional has a 40.74% chance of winning the match, compared to 30.25% for Alianza Petrolera. The option of a draw or an Atletico Nacional victory is more likely with 69.75%.

The match is expected to be low-scoring according to forecasts. There is a 66.67% probability for over 1.5 goals, 87.65% for under 3.5 goals, and 98.77% for under 4.5 goals.

In summary, Atletico Nacional appears more likely to win, but a low-scoring match is also predictable. The recommended bets would be “Atletico Nacional to win the match” and “Under 3.5 goals in the match”.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on the statistics and recent performances of both teams, the betting odds seem to favor Atletico Nacional to win the match. However, a low-scoring game can be expected, with fewer than 2.5 goals, which could be a good betting opportunity. The limited offensive potential of Alianza Petrolera and the strong defense of Atletico Nacional suggest that both teams may not score, therefore the bet Both Teams to Score: No is also worth considering. A draw is also a plausible outcome given the past performances of both clubs. The exact score of 1-1 could be an alternative to explore for bettors seeking higher risks. So, while exercising necessary caution, there are several interesting betting options for this match, each offering different levels of risks and rewards.