Tipps Cherno More Varna Septemvri Sofia Parva Liga 29/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Cherno More Varna wins the match

1. Cherno More Varna has a better home record compared to Septemvri Sofia, who has a weaker away record. They have a win rate of 40% compared to Septemvri Sofia’s 20%.
2. Cherno More Varna has superior defensive and offensive performance. Their offensive potential at home is 43% and defensive potential is 7% compared to Septemvri Sofia, who has an offensive potential of 14% and defensive potential of 71% when playing away.
3. The statistical prediction gives Cherno More Varna a 61.02% probability of winning, compared to only 10.73% for Septemvri Sofia.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Analysis on previous performance: Cherno More Varna averages 1.2 goals per match at home, while Septemvri Sofia averages 0.4 goals per match away. With these figures, it is unlikely that a total of 2.5 goals will be exceeded in the match.
2. Defensive potential: Septemvri Sofia has a defensive potential of 71% away, meaning they are less likely to concede goals, making the under 2.5 goals bet more plausible.
3. Goal statistics: In the last 5 home matches of Cherno More Varna, three saw no goals scored. Similarly, in two of the last five away matches of Septemvri Sofia, no goals were scored. These statistics reinforce the probability of the total goals being under 2.5.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Cherno More Varna’s defensive statistics at home are very strong, with an average of only 0.2 goals conceded per match in their last 5 home matches. Additionally, they have only conceded goals in 40% of these matches.

2. The low offensive potential of Septemvri Sofia when playing away is another significant factor. They have an average of only 0.4 goals scored per match in their last 5 away matches, and they have only scored in 20% of these matches.

3. The odds prediction suggests that both teams will not score, with a success probability of 55.93%, which aligns with the offensive and defensive performances of both teams. Furthermore, Cherno More Varna’s strong defensive potential (7%) combined with Septemvri Sofia’s weak offensive potential (14%) makes the scenario of both teams not scoring more likely.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – 28.25% probability of success: 4.20

Bet on the exact result

Cherno More Varna 1-0 Septemvri Sofia

1. Home Performance of Cherno More Varna: Statistics show that Cherno More Varna has a rather positive record at home, with a 40% win rate and a 20% draw rate. They also have an average of 1.2 goals scored per home match and a low average of goals conceded (0.2 goals per match).

2. Away Performances of Septemvri Sofia: Septemvri Sofia seems to struggle more on the road. They have only won 20% of their matches, drawn 40% of the time, and have a relatively low average of goals scored (0.4 goals per match). Their defense also appears more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2 goals per match.

3. Match Outcome Probabilities: According to the probabilities, Cherno More Varna are more likely to win the match (61.02%). There is also a 74.01% chance of the match ending with over 1.5 goals. However, Septemvri Sofia only has a 10.73% chance of winning, and the match has a 55.93% chance of ending without both teams scoring. Considering these factors along with the teams’ performances, a score of 1-0 in favor of Cherno More Varna seems plausible.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Cherno More Varna is in good form at home, with a 40% win rate and 20% draws. They have scored 6 goals and conceded the same. Their offensive potential is at 43%, and defensive at 7%.
Sevenmri Sofia, on the other hand, struggles more away from home. They only have a 20% win rate and 40% draws. They have scored 4 goals and conceded 5. Their offensive potential is low at 14%, and defensive is higher at 71%.
The probability of Cherno More Varna winning is 61.02%, with odds of 1.45. The probability of a draw is 28.25% (odds of 4.20), and only 10.73% (odds of 6.50) for Sevenmri Sofia to win.
The option of a draw or a Cherno More Varna win has a high probability of 89.27%, with odds of 1.06. The option of a draw or a Sevenmri Sofia win is riskier at 38.98% (odds of 2.65).
There is a high chance of seeing over 1.5 goals in the match (74.01% probability), while the odds go up to 1.95 for over 2.5 goals, with a 40.11% probability.
Regarding both teams scoring, the probability is 44.07%. If neither team manages to score, the probability is 55.93%.
Cherno More Varna has kept a clean sheet in their last two home matches. Sevenmri Sofia, however, has suffered heavy defeats in their last two away games.
In conclusion, Cherno More Varna appears to be the favorite for this match. An interesting option could be over 1.5 goals, given their offensive potential.

The potential number of goals

Cherno More Varna presents a home offensive potential of 43% with an average of 1.2 goals per match. Moreover, their defense looks solid with only 0.2 goals conceded per match. This corresponds to their recent results, with only one loss at home.

On the other hand, Septemvri Sofia faces difficulties away from home. They have a low offensive potential of 14% and a vulnerable defense. Their recent away matches have been tough with several losses and few goals scored.

The forecast leans in favor of Cherno More with a probability of 61.02%. However, there is a 28.25% chance of a draw. The match could be tight. Therefore, it seems wise to consider a bet on “Under 2.5 goals in the match.”

As for the option “Both teams do not score,” it has the highest success probability at 55.93%.

Finally, the bet “draw or Cherno More Varna wins the match” seems to be a safe option with an impressive probability of 89.27%.

Nevertheless, Septemvri Sofia could pull off a surprise, although it seems unlikely with a success probability of 10.73%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the detailed analysis of the balance sheet of the two teams, their past performances, and the statistical predictions clearly indicate that Cherno More Varna would be the favorite team to win this match. An exact score of 1-0 for Cherno More Varna is also estimated as the most probable, given the offensive and defensive capabilities of both teams.

Regarding the total goals, a bet on “under 2.5 goals in the match” is strongly recommended due to the recent trends of both teams and their efficiency in terms of defense and attack. Similarly, it is presumed that both teams will not score in this match.

Finally, a bet on a “draw” could offer good value, taking into account both teams’ tendency to draw matches, combined with favorable odds. However, it is important to remember that sports betting always involves a degree of risk and it is important to bet responsibly.