Tipps Sao Paulo Flamengo Serie A 04/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Sao Paulo SP wins the match

1. Recent performances of Sao Paulo SP at home are better than Flamengo’s away performances, with Sao Paulo SP winning 80% of their last home matches compared to Flamengo’s 60% away.
2. Even though Flamengo has a higher average of goals scored at 1.6 goals per match compared to Sao Paulo SP’s 0.8, they also tend to concede as many goals as they score in their away matches. This suggests Sao Paulo SP has a chance to score against Flamengo.
3. The odds also indicate that Sao Paulo SP either wins the match or at least a draw with a probability of 67.93%. This value is higher than the probability of Flamengo winning the match, which is 32.07%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match: 1.63

1. The statistics show that Sao Paulo SP’s offensive potential at home is only 29%, and its defensive potential is 36%, indicating a low tendency to score many goals. An average of 0.8 goals per match is also noted, confirming this trend.

2. On the other hand, Flamengo has an average of 1.6 goals scored per away match. However, the defense presented by this team seems solid with a 36% potential, reducing the chances of a high-scoring match.

3. Historical data also suggests a score lower than 2.5 goals. Previous matches of these two teams show that most of them ended with less than 3 goals. For example, in the last five home matches of Sao Paulo SP, four times the total goals were less than 2.5. The same goes for Flamengo in the last five away matches of the team.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics from the last 5 home matches of Sao Paulo SP and the last 5 away matches of Flamengo show that both teams have a solid record of scoring goals, with a total of 10 goals for Sao Paulo SP and 9 goals for Flamengo. This demonstrates the offensive potential of both teams.

2. Taking into account the goals conceded by both teams in their respective last 5 matches (11 for Sao Paulo SP and 10 for Flamengo), it indicates that they also have defensive weaknesses. A combination of a strong attack and a fragile defense sets the stage for a match where both teams score.

3. The offensive and defensive potential for both teams suggests betting on both teams to score in the match. Specifically, Sao Paulo SP has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 36%; Flamengo has an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive potential of 36%. These offensive and defensive percentages lead to the conclusion that both teams have chances to score in the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Flamengo wins the match – 32.07% chance of success: 2.70

Bet on the exact result

Sao Paulo SP 1-2 Flamengo

1. Flamengo has a higher average of goals scored per match (1.6) away compared to Sao Paulo SP at home (0.8), indicating a superior offensive potential. In terms of their defensive statistics, both teams have an average of 1 goal conceded per match, which could favor a Flamengo victory.
2. Looking at the win percentages, Flamengo has a 60% chance of winning away, while Sao Paulo SP has an 80% chance of winning at home. However, Flamengo also has a 20% draw rate, which could reduce Sao Paulo SP’s chances of winning, further strengthening the prediction of a Flamengo victory.
3. Flamengo’s recent away matches show a trend towards higher scores, with an average of 2.8 goals scored by Flamengo in those matches. Whereas Sao Paulo SP’s recent home matches show an average of 2 goals. This suggests that it is likely that more than 2.5 goals will be scored in the match, reinforcing the prediction of an exact score of 1-2 in favor of Flamengo.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Sao Paulo is strong at home, winning 80% of their recent matches. However, their defense is shaky, having conceded 11 goals. On the other hand, Flamengo has a 60% win rate away from home, with a solid defense as well.

Sao Paulo doesn’t have a remarkable attacking prowess: 0.8 goals per match compared to Flamengo’s 1.6. Defensively, both teams seem similar, conceding an average of 1 goal per match.

According to the odds, there is a slightly higher chance of a Sao Paulo win or a draw, with respective probabilities of 34.24% and 33.7%.

In terms of goals, there is a strong likelihood (90.76%) of seeing fewer than 3.5 goals during the match. There is also a 65.76% probability of more than 1.5 goals.

In their recent matchups, Sao Paulo seems to score against average teams, while Flamengo can find the back of the net even against stronger opponents.

In conclusion, this match appears to be heading towards a balanced contest with few goals. A draw or a Sao Paulo win seems to be the most probable outcome.

The potential number of goals

Sao Paulo SP shows a strong home performance with an 80% win rate, scoring 10 goals in their last 5 matches. Their defensive capability seems weak, conceding 11 goals.

On the other hand, Flamengo has won 60% of their away matches, scoring 9 goals but also conceding 10 goals, highlighting a concerning defense.

Sao Paulo SP averages 0.8 goals per home match, while Flamengo averages 1.6 goals per away match. The offensive potentials are 29% and 57% respectively.

The probabilities of the results are very close: Sao Paulo SP has a 34.24% chance of winning while Flamengo has 32.07%. A draw has the highest probability at 33.7%.

There is a 65.76% chance for over 1.5 goals during the match and 90.76% for under 3.5 goals. There is a 100% chance for under 4.5 goals. Considering these data and the teams’ performances, a bet on under 3.5 goals could be a wise option.

Looking at the best scores of Sao Paulo SP at home and Flamengo away, there is a trend towards both teams scoring. However, the probabilities indicate that only one team will score (54.89%).

In summary, this match promises a close battle with almost equal probabilities for all outcomes. A safe bet could be under 3.5 goals with a probability of 90.76%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the forecast presented in this article recommends a bet on a draw or a victory for Sao Paulo SP. This is based on the recent performances of Sao Paulo SP compared to Flamengo, as well as probabilities indicating a higher likelihood of victory or a draw for Sao Paulo SP.

Regarding the number of goals, statistics and probabilities suggest a match with less than 2.5 goals. The offensive and defensive potentials of each team, the average number of goals per match, and the number of goals scored and conceded in their recent matches all point towards this outcome.

The bet that both teams will score is supported by their recent offensive and defensive histories, combining their offensive potential, goal-scoring records, and propensity to concede goals.

An interesting bet could be on Flamengo’s victory, despite a lower probability of success, as this could be an interesting value bet considering the associated odds.

Finally, a specific score of 1-2 in favor of Flamengo is considered, based on the average goals per match of each team and their recent scoring trends.

However, it is important to remember that sports betting always involves a certain degree of uncertainty and that these predictions do not guarantee a specific outcome. It is therefore recommended to bet responsibly.