Tipps A. Italiano Nublense Primera Division 04/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or A. Italiano wins the match.

1. By analyzing recent statistics, A. Italiano has more often drawn at home in their last 5 matches (80%) and Nublense also has a draw rate of 40% in their last 5 away matches. This indicates a tendency for both teams to struggle to secure a clear victory, reinforcing the idea of a draw or a win for A. Italiano.

2. Nublense has a low 20% away win rate, which is quite inferior compared to A. Italiano’s home record. This suggests that A. Italiano has a better chance of winning the match, especially as they are playing at home, or at least holding a draw.

3. In terms of probability, “Draw or A. Italiano wins the match” has a success probability of 71.57%, which is higher compared to “Nublense wins the match” with only 28.43% success probability. This indicates that statistically, the odds favor a draw or a win for A. Italiano.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Average goals per match: Both teams have an average of goals scored and conceded higher than 1.2 goals per match (A. Italiano at home scores 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1.6 goals per match; Nublense away scores 2.2 goals per match and concedes 1.2 goals per match), indicating a potentially offensive match and increasing the probability of seeing at least 3 goals in this match.

2. Offensive potential: Nublense has an offensive potential of 79% in their away games, indicating a high probability that they will score during the match, contributing to reaching the total of 2.5 goals.

3. Recent statistics: In A. Italiano’s last 5 home matches, 3 have had more than 2.5 goals. For Nublense away, 2 of the last 5 matches have had more than 2.5 goals. These statistics highlight a trend towards high-scoring matches.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics clearly show that both teams have a decent record in terms of goals scored in their recent matches. On average, A. Italiano scores 1.2 goals per match at home, while Nublense scores 2.2 goals per match away.

2. Similarly, both teams tend to concede goals, with A. Italiano conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match at home and Nublense conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match away. This situation indicates that they both have defenses that can be breached.

3. Finally, the probability of “Both teams to score” is quite high, at 56.35%, making this a tempting bet based on statistical probabilities.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

A. Italiano 1-2 Nublense

1. Recent statistics demonstrate a poor performance from A. Italiano at home, not winning any of their last 5 matches and conceding more goals than they have scored. The score of 1 for A. Italiano therefore seems justified, reflecting their lack of offensive power and defensive problems.

2. On the other hand, Nublense has shown an ability to score goals away from home, even though they have only won one of their last 5 matches. They average 2.2 goals per match, which justifies the score of 2 for Nublense.

3. The odds indicate a higher probability of a draw or a win for A. Italiano (71.57%) and a lower probability of a win for Nublense (28.43%). However, the exact score of 1-2 is consistent with past statistics and the offensive and defensive potential of each team, suggesting that this result could be a likely outcome despite the overall probabilities.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

A. Italiano is struggling at home, with no wins in the last 5 matches. They are a team that scores few goals (1.2 goals per match) and concedes more (1.6 goals per match).

On the other hand, Nublense shows a better offensive performance away from home (2.2 goals per match), although they have only won one match in the last 5.

The recent home matches of A. Italiano and away matches of Nublense suggest a trend towards low-scoring games.

Regarding the predictions, the probability of the match ending with less than 4.5 goals is higher (91.88%). Additionally, there is a 77.16% chance of the match ending with more than 1.5 goals, indicating that despite past poor performances, both teams are expected to do better this time.

The probability of both teams scoring is 56.35%, so the odds slightly favor this bet.

Overall, a draw or a win for A. Italiano seems to be the most likely bet (71.57%), despite their poor home form. This is a match that could see few goals, with a 50% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored.

Therefore, based on these statistics, a realistic bet would be a draw or a win for A. Italiano with less than 4.5 total goals.

The potential number of goals

A. Italiano, at home, has not won any of their last 5 matches, with 80% ending in draws. They have conceded 6 goals. Nublense, on the road, wins 20% of the time and has scored 6 goals.

A. Italiano has an offensive potential of 43% and defensive potential of 57%. Nublense has an offensive potential of 79% and defensive potential of 43%. The match could therefore have a dominant offensive aspect for Nublense.

The probability of A. Italiano winning is 37.06%, while a draw is at 34.52%. A Nublense victory has a probability of 28.43%. The most likely outcome would be a win for A. Italiano or a draw.

In terms of goals, the probability of over 1.5 goals in the match is 77.16%. Both teams scoring is at 56.35%. Caution is advised in betting, as recent matches have shown a weak offensive capacity.

In summary, this match could be tight, with a possible Nublense offensive dominance, but a win for A. Italiano or a draw remains the most probable outcome.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between A. Italiano and Nublense promises to be tightly contested. Given the recent performances and results of both teams, there is a significant likelihood of a draw or a home win for A. Italiano. The anticipation of a lower number of goals, likely less than 4.5, is supported by the latest match statistics of both teams. The “Both teams to score” prediction also aligns with this forecast, indicating that each team is likely to score at least one goal. However, it is crucial for bettors to understand the associated risks, and that despite the statistics and probabilities, the final outcome remains unpredictable. Therefore, it is recommended to bet with caution.