Tipps Albirex Niigata Shonan Bellmare J1 League 14/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Albirex Niigata wins the match.

1. Recent history: In Albirex Niigata’s last 5 home matches, they have managed to avoid defeat in 60% of cases (20% wins and 40% draws), indicating a strong resistance on their home ground.

2. Defensive performances: At home, Albirex Niigata has a defensive potential of 21%, which is lower than Shonan Bellmare’s offensive potential away from home (43%). This could lead to fewer goals scored by Shonan Bellmare, increasing the chances of a draw or a win for Albirex Niigata.

3. Betting probabilities: The betting odds suggest that the probability of Albirex Niigata winning or a draw is 73.44%. This is the highest probability among all other possible match outcomes, implying that it is the most likely scenario according to bookmakers.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. The analysis of the last 5 home matches of Albirex Niigata and the last 5 away matches of Shonan Bellmare show an average of over 2.5 goals per match. Indeed, Albirex Niigata has an average of 3 goals per match (15 goals in 5 matches) and Shonan Bellmare has an average of 2.8 goals per match (14 goals in 5 matches).

2. The distribution of probabilities for the final score indicates a higher probability for over 2.5 goals in the match (53.13%) compared to under 2.5 goals in the match.

3. Both teams have shown significant offensive potential in their respective last 5 matches. Albirex Niigata has scored an average of 1.4 goals per match at home, while Shonan Bellmare has scored an average of 1.2 goals per match away. Additionally, both teams have strong defensive potential, thereby increasing the probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics from the last matches show that both teams have a good offensive potential, with an average of 1.4 goals per game for Albirex Niigata and 1.2 goals per game for Shonan Bellmare. This increases the likelihood of both teams scoring in the match.

2. Additionally, both teams have relatively weak defensive levels, with a defensive potential of 21% for Albirex Niigata and 50% for Shonan Bellmare. This means that the chances of conceding a goal are quite high for both teams.

3. In their recent matches, there have been several instances where both teams have scored, for example, in the match Albirex Niigata 3 – 4 Sagan Tosu and Sagan Tosu 1 – 2 Shonan Bellmare. This trend could repeat itself in their upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Shonan Bellmare wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Albirex Niigata 1-2 Shonan Bellmare

1. Recent Performance: Shonan Bellmare has shown strong recent performance by winning 80% of their last 5 away matches, compared to only 20% for Albirex Niigata at home.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Shonan Bellmare has a higher average goals scored than Albirex Niigata (1.2 vs 1.4) and concedes fewer goals (1.4 vs 0.6). This gives Shonan Bellmare an offensive and defensive advantage.

3. Head-to-Head History: Recent match results indicate that Shonan Bellmare has been successful away from home, with several victories (2-1 against Sagan Tosu, 1-0 against Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka, and 3-2 against Urawa Red Diamonds). Furthermore, Albirex Niigata has had home matches where they have conceded multiple goals (1-6 against V-varen Nagasaki and 3-4 against Sagan Tosu).

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Albirex Niigata, at home, has not been shining, winning only 20% of their last 5 matches. They also struggle in defense, conceding 12 goals. Their offensive potential stands at 50%, a significantly higher average than that of Shonan Bellmare, which is only 43%.

Shonan Bellmare, on the other hand, is in better form away from home, with 4 wins in their last 5 outings. However, their defense leaves something to be desired, having conceded 11 goals.

The probability of the match ending in a draw or an Albirex Niigata win is 73.44%, with odds of 1.36. The probability of the match ending in a draw or a Shonan Bellmare win is lower, at 50.52%.

The odds analysis also indicates that a low-scoring match is expected. More than 1.5 goals in the match have a success probability of 76.04% with odds of 1.28, while fewer than 3.5 goals in the match have a success probability of 76.56% with odds of 1.33.

Both teams are likely to score, with a probability of 54.69% and odds of 1.68.

Based on the analysis, a valid prediction could be a match with over 1.5 goals and both teams scoring.

The potential number of goals

The Albirex Niigata struggles to gather points at home with only 20% of victories and 40% of draws in their last 5 matches. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 12.

On the other hand, Shonan Bellmare excels away from home with 80% of victories and has scored 9 goals against 11 conceded in their last 5 outings.

In terms of offensive and defensive performances, Albirex Niigata shows an offensive strength of 50% with 1.4 goals per home match, but a weak defense (21%) conceding an average of 0.6 goals. Shonan Bellmare demonstrates an offensive potential of 43% (1.2 goals per match) and a solid defense of 50% (conceding an average of 1.4 goals) when playing away.

Regarding the likelihood of results, Albirex Niigata is favored with an expected win probability of 49.48% compared to 26.56% for Shonan Bellmare. The draw is predicted at 23.96%.

When considering the number of goals, the option of more than 1.5 goals has a success probability of 76.04%. Notably, less than 4.5 goals in the match has a high probability of 90.1%.

In conclusion, this match is relatively uncertain, but one can likely expect more than 1.5 goals and less than 4.5 goals. In this context, the most probable scenario would be a victory for Albirex Niigata or a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the match between Albirex Niigata and Shonan Bellmare seems to promise an intense and unpredictable encounter. The analysis of historical data, recent performances of both teams, and betting probabilities indicate that the match will likely have more than 1.5 goals and less than 4.5 goals. Albirex Niigata, despite performing less well at home, presents with a greater offensive potential, while Shonan Bellmare shows good form away from home. Therefore, the most probable outcome would be a draw or a win for Albirex Niigata. However, the dynamics of football can always bring surprises, and it is the unpredictability of the sport that makes it exciting. It is advisable to approach these predictions with caution. In any case, we hope you will have a good time watching the match.