Tipps Alianza Petrolera Fortaleza FC Primera A 09/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Alianza Petrolera wins the match.

1. The tactical scheme and statistics of Alianza Petrolera at home show a strong offensive potential of 64% and allow the team to win or draw in 80% of cases.
2. Fortaleza FC shows significantly less convincing performances away from home, with a lower offensive efficiency (50%) and a general tendency to concede more goals (1.2 goals per match on average).
3. The calculated probabilities strongly favor Alianza Petrolera’s victory or draw, with a success probability of 74.61%, confirming the details of these first two arguments.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

My prediction for this match is: Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The home goal statistics for Alianza Petrolera and the away goal statistics for Fortaleza FC in their respective last 5 matches are relatively low. Alianza Petrolera has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match and Fortaleza FC 1.4, which does not indicate a particularly offensive game that could lead to a total of over 2.5 goals.

2. The respective offensive potential of Alianza Petrolera and Fortaleza FC is considered to be moderate to low, at 64% and 50% respectively. Despite also having moderate to low defensive potential, at 36% and 43% respectively, this could lead to a match with fewer scoring opportunities and therefore fewer goals scored.

3. The recent match history confirms this trend with only 2 matches out of the last 10 played at home by Alianza Petrolera and away by Fortaleza FC where more than 2.5 goals were scored. Combined with the mentioned offensive and defensive statistics, this provides a strong argument in favor of a total of under 2.5 goals in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes.

1. The statistics on the last 5 matches of each team show that both have a strong tendency to score goals. Alianza Petrolera has scored in 80% of their last home matches, and Fortaleza FC has scored in 80% of their last away matches.

2. The “offensive potential” of each team is higher than their “defensive potential.” Alianza Petrolera has an offensive potential of 64% compared to a defensive potential of 36%. Similarly, Fortaleza FC has an offensive potential of 50% compared to a defensive potential of 43%. This suggests that both teams are more likely to score goals than to not concede.

3. The odds also indicate that the match is more likely to have goals. For example, there is a success probability of 67.36% for “Over 1.5 goals in the match.”

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Alianza Petrolera wins the match – 1.33

Bet on the exact result

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Fortaleza FC

1. The match history shows that Alianza Petrolera has a tendency not to lose at home, with 80% of games won or drawn in their last 5 home matches.
2. Fortaleza FC, in its away games, has also shown a high likelihood of not losing the match with 80% of games won or drawn in its last 5 away matches.
3. The analysis of average goals scored and conceded by both teams in their last matches shows a significant probability for a 1-1 score. Alianza Petrolera scores and concedes an average of 1 to 1.8 goals per match, and Fortaleza FC scores and concedes an average of 1 to 1.4 goals per match, suggesting a probability of a draw with at least one goal scored by each side.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Analysis Alianza Petrolera: At home, wins 40% of the time. Draws 40% of the time as well. Average of 1.8 goals scored per match. 7 goals scored, 10 conceded in the last 5 matches.

Analysis Fortaleza FC: Away, wins 60% of the time. Draws 20% of the time. Average of 1.4 goals scored per match. 7 goals scored and conceded in the last 5 matches.

Forecast probabilities: Alianza Petrolera win – 41.97%. Draw – 32.64%. Fortaleza FC win – 25.39%.

More and less goals: Less than 1.5 goals at 2.62 odds. More than 1.5 goals with 67.36% probability. More than 2.5 goals with 36.79% probability.

Both teams to score at 49.74% probability. Both teams not to score at 50.26% probability.

Recent performances: Alianza Petrolera comfortably winning against Boyaca Chico, but struggling losses against Atletico Nacional and Cruzeiro MG. Fortaleza FC performing well against Envigado FC and Deportivo Pereira, but drawing against Boyaca Chico.

Conclusion: Potentially close match. Fortaleza FC has a slight edge away from home.

The potential number of goals

Alianza Petrolera plays at home. Recently, they have won 40% of the time and scored 7 goals while conceding 10. They have an average of 1.8 goals per match.

Fortaleza FC is playing away. In the last 5 matches, they have seen a 60% win rate with 7 goals scored and 7 goals conceded. Their average is 1.4 goals per match.

The probability of Alianza Petrolera winning is 41.97%. For a draw, it is 32.64%.

A win by Fortaleza FC has a probability of 25.39%.

More than 1.5 goals in the match are likely at 67.36%.

Both teams have a 49.74% probability of scoring.

In conclusion, the match could be close, with goals from both sides. Alianza Petrolera’s home advantage could be decisive.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, this football match between Alianza Petrolera and Fortaleza FC appears to be filled with rivalry and potential. Past statistics and recent performances indicate an advantage for Alianza Petrolera, especially considering their strong offensive and defensive capabilities at home. However, Fortaleza FC has also shown a strong ability to resist away from home. It is likely that fewer than 2.5 goals will be scored in this match, with both teams possibly finding the back of the net. The most interesting bet seems to be a draw or a win for Alianza Petrolera, offering good value. However, football is unpredictable, which is part of its charm, so it is advisable to proceed with caution and bet responsibly. In any case, this match is sure to provide entertainment and excitement for football fans.