Tipps Amiens Rodez Ligue 2 27/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Amiens wins the match.”

1. Performance History: Over their last 5 matches, Amiens has a significantly higher success rate compared to Rodez AF, with 60% of wins for Amiens against only 20% for Rodez AF.

2. Home vs Away Efficiency: Amiens performs well at home with an average of goals scored higher than goals conceded (1 goal per match scored against 0.8 goals per match conceded), while Rodez AF struggles away, scoring only 1 goal per match and conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match.

3. Odds and Probabilities: The odds favor a victory for Amiens with an estimated win probability of 47.12% compared to Rodez AF’s 21.99% only.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics from previous matches for both teams indicate a low average of goals. In their respective last 5 matches, Amiens scored an average of 1 goal per match while Rodez AF also scored an average of 1 goal per match.

2. In Amiens’ recent home matches, it can be observed that there are generally no more than 2.5 goals per match. The matches often have a low number of goals (0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0, 1-0).

3. When Rodez AF plays away, they also tend to have low-scoring matches with an average of 1 goal scored and 1.4 goals conceded. The scores from their recent away matches confirm this (0-3, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0).

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent statistics show that both teams have a tendency to score goals. Indeed, in their last 5 home matches, Amiens has scored 6 goals, while Rodez AF has scored 4 goals in their last 5 away matches. This indicates a good offensive potential on both sides.
2. Looking at defensive statistics, it is noted that both teams have conceded a significant number of goals in their respective last 5 matches. Amiens has conceded 6 goals at home and Rodez AF has conceded 6 goals away. This suggests that their defenses may be vulnerable and provide opportunities for the opposing team to score.
3. The calculated probability for the “Both teams to score” option is 56.54%, which is higher than the average of 50%. This higher probability highlights the tendency for each team to score at least one goal in the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Rodez AF wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Amiens 1 – 0 Rodez AF

1. Amiens has proven its strength at home with a victory in 60% of their last 5 matches. This home performance, combined with their previous scores against Clermont Foot, Lorient, and RED Star FC 93, supports the prediction of a win against Rodez AF.

2. Rodez AF has shown weakness in their away matches, winning only in 20% of their last 5 games. Furthermore, they tend to concede more goals on average (1.4) than Amiens at home (0.8), which enhances the likelihood of a final score against Rodez.

3. The offensive potential of Rodez AF and Amiens is equal at 36%, however, Amiens outshines Rodez AF in terms of defense with a potential of 29% compared to Rodez’s 50%. This could lead to a situation where Amiens may score a goal while keeping their own net untouched.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Amiens dominates at home with 60% recent victories. They have scored as many goals as they have conceded, which is 6. Rodez AF struggles away from home with only 20% victories and a negative goal difference of two.

Amiens’ offensive potential is at 36%, and their defense at 29%. By comparison, Rodez AF has the same offensive potential but suffers defensively with a potential of 50%.

The success probabilities favor Amiens with 47.12%, against 21.99% for Rodez AF. The draw has a 30.89% chance of happening.

Regarding the number of goals, there is a 70.68% chance for more than 1.5 goals. The most likely scenario is a match with less than 3.5 goals (81.15% probability).

An interesting fact: there is a 56.54% chance that each team scores at least one goal. This aligns with their recent performances, where Amiens has found the back of the net in the majority of their matches, and Rodez AF has shown they can score away from home, despite their defeats.

The trend leans towards an Amiens victory or a draw, with less than 3.5 goals and both teams scoring.

The potential number of goals

Amiens has a good home performance. In its last 5 matches, it wins 60% of the time and has a perfect balance of goals with 6 goals scored and conceded.

Rodez AF, away from home, has fewer victories. It only wins 20% of the time and has a negative goal difference of -2 goals in its last 5 matches.

Amiens has a better defense at home with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per match, unlike Rodez AF with an average of 1.4 goals conceded.

Both teams have a similar offensive potential. Both Amiens and Rodez AF score an average of 1 goal per match.

Regarding the prediction, the most likely outcome is a victory for Amiens with a probability of 47.12%, followed by a draw at 30.89%.

The probability of the match ending with less than 3.5 goals is very high at 81.15%. The probability of both teams scoring is slightly higher at 56.54%.

So, a victory for Amiens with fewer than 3.5 goals in the match seems to be a reasonable prediction.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, we are in favor of seeing Amiens win at home against Rodez AF. Amiens has shown strong performances at home and seems the most likely team to score first. Recent performances between Amiens and Rodez indicate that Amiens has a significant advantage, especially on their home turf. Additionally, it is less likely that the match will have more than 3.5 goals, as historical performances of both teams tend to result in low-scoring matches. However, it is likely that both teams will score, considering their offensive potential and defensive weaknesses. Finally, despite the analysis above, a win for Rodez could also represent an interesting ‘value bet’, given the difference between actual probabilities and those estimated by the bookmaker. In any case, a bet is never guaranteed and it is recommended to gamble responsibly.