Tipps Argentina Chile Qualif. CDM - Amérique du Sud 06/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Argentina wins the match

1. Argentina has a much stronger home performance by winning 80% of its last 5 matches compared to Chile, which has only won 20% of its last 5 away matches.
2. Argentina has significantly stronger defensive potential at home, conceding on average only 0.2 goals per match, compared to Chile conceding 0.8 goals per match in their away matches.
3. The calculated probabilities based on previous performances give a clear advantage to Argentina with a win probability of 80.41% against a low probability of 4.64% for Chile.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

More than 2.5 goals in the match

1. The home statistics of Argentina and away statistics of Chile suggest a combined average of 3 goals per match (1.4 goals per match for Argentina + 1.6 goals per match for Chile), increasing the likelihood of a total of over 2.5 goals.

2. The offensive potentials of Argentina (50%) at home and Chile (57%) away are relatively high, indicating that both teams have a strong ability to score goals, which could result in a match with over 2.5 goals.

3. The provided odds indicate a 54.12% probability for a match with over 2.5 goals, which is higher than the odds for under 2.5 goals. This suggests that bookmakers believe the match is more likely to see over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Argentina has a better performance at home with a tendency to win 80% of its matches and also has a better defense, conceding an average of only 0.2 goals per match.
2. Chile performs less well away from home with a win rate of only 20%, and its attack is less effective, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match.
3. The statistics of both teams indicate a higher probability, namely 59.79%, that both teams will not score, in line with Argentina’s defensive performance and Chile’s offensive performance in recent matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Chile wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Argentina 2-1 Chile

1. The home statistics show a strong performance from Argentina with an 80.41% probability of winning the match. Argentina has also averaged 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 home games, increasing the likelihood of a 2-goal scoreline for the match.

2. In terms of defense, Argentina has conceded only 0.2 goals per match on average in their last 5 home games. However, Chile’s offensive potential away from home is at 57% with an average of 1.6 goals per match in previous games. These factors make it possible for Chile to score a goal in this match.

3. Based on the expected total number of goals for this match, there is a 54.12% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match. This aligns with a final score of 2-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Argentina is in good form at home with a win rate of 80%. They have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches but have also conceded 8 goals. On the other hand, Chile has struggled more away from home, winning only 20% of their matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9.

Argentina’s offensive strength at home is 50% with an average of 1.4 goals per match. Their defense is solid, conceding only 0.2 goals per match. In comparison, Chile shows an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive strength of 29% away from home, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.8 goals per match.

Statistics predict a victory for Argentina with a probability of 80.41% and odds of 1.38. A draw is unlikely with odds of 4.75. Chile’s victory is even less probable with odds of 9.50.

The chances of fewer than 1.5 goals in the match are low (odds of 3.60). The scenario of more than 1.5 goals is favored with a success rate of 76.8% and odds of 1.30.

Analyzing the teams’ recent matches, Argentina appears stronger, with a winning streak at home. Chile has struggled away, suffering several losses.

Overall, Argentina seems to be the favorite for this match, and more than 1.5 goals appear to be the most likely scenario.

The potential number of goals

Argentina seems to be in good shape at home, with an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches. However, their offensive and defensive performances are quite different, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game but a total of 8 goals conceded.

Chile, on the other hand, is struggling to impose their game away from home, with only a 20% win rate and a more prominent defensive weakness, having conceded 9 goals.

The predictions heavily favor Argentina with an 80.41% chance of winning, while Chile has only a 4.64% chance of victory.

In terms of goals, the match is expected to be relatively close, with a 76.8% probability of more than 1.5 goals being scored. This aligns with Argentina’s current trend of scoring few but efficiently.

It’s less likely that both teams will score, with a probability of 40.21%.

In conclusion, Argentina seems well-positioned to win at home against Chile, probably with a close scoreline.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the statistics and analysis presented in this article, Argentina seems to be the safest choice for a victory in this World Cup qualification match. However, the offensive potential of Chile should not be ignored, and it is suggested that more than 2.5 goals could be scored in this match. Despite this analysis, and despite the low probabilities, a bet on Chile to win offers an interesting value bet for bettors looking for high returns, considering that football remains an unpredictable sport and anything can happen in the match. In summary, each bet should be placed taking these factors into account, but also sticking to a strict bankroll management strategy.