Tipps Arouca Guimaraes Primeira Liga 12/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Guimaraes wins the match

1. Past statistics show that Guimaraes has a better performance: they have won 60% of their last 5 away matches, while Arouca has only won 40% of their home matches. Moreover, the last match between the two teams in Arouca ended in a 3-1 victory for Guimaraes.
2. Guimaraes has a higher offensive potential than Arouca, averaging 2.2 goals per match away compared to Arouca’s 0.8 goals at home. This, combined with weaker defensive potential for Arouca (79% against 7% for Guimaraes), suggests that Guimaraes has a better chance of scoring more goals.
3. Calculated probabilities give Guimaraes the highest chance of winning the match, with a success probability of 39.24% compared to only 32.91% for Arouca. The return rate on a bet for Guimaraes to win is also more favorable.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Arouca’s offensive capability is relatively weak, averaging 0.8 goals per match at home, so it’s unlikely they will contribute significantly to the total goals.
2. Guimaraes’ team has averaged 2.2 goals per match away, suggesting they may score a few goals. However, considering Arouca’s weak offensive performance and the fact that Guimaraes concedes only 0.2 goals per match away, it’s likely that the total goals of the match will remain under 2.5.
3. The past performances of both teams also indicate a trend towards low-scoring matches. For example, among Arouca’s recent home matches, two had fewer than 2.5 goals, while for Guimaraes away, two out of five had fewer than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The offensive statistics of both teams are quite strong: Arouca averages 0.8 goals per match at home, while Guimares scores 2.2 goals per match away. This suggests that both teams have the ability to score in this match.

2. The teams are also quite weak defensively: Arouca concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match at home, while Guimaraes concedes 0.2 goals per match away. This trend suggests that both teams could easily concede goals.

3. Taking into account their recent matches, you can see that both teams have a tendency to score goals. For example, in the last match between Arouca and Guimaraes, both teams scored.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

“Arouca 1-2 Guimaraes” translates to “Arouca 1-2 Guimaraes” in English.

1. Given the statistics, Guimaraes has a stronger offensive performance than Arouca, averaging 2.2 goals per away match, supporting a prediction of 2 goals for Guimaraes.

2. Despite a weak offensive performance, Arouca has shown some ability to score at home with a total of 5 goals in their last 5 home matches. This justifies a prediction of 1 goal for Arouca.

3. Previous matches between these two teams have seen similar scores, with the most recent match at Arouca ending in a 3-1 victory for Guimaraes. This suggests that Guimaraes is capable of overcoming Arouca away from home.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Arouca has had a mixed performance in their last 5 home matches, with 40% of wins and draws. The defense needs to tighten up as they have conceded 8 goals.

Guimaraes has been successful in 60% of their recent outings. However, their defense seems vulnerable with 11 goals conceded.

Arouca shows offensive weakness at home with an average of 0.8 goals scored per match. Their defense, on the other hand, lets in an average of 2.2 goals.

Guimaraes displays offensive strength away from home with 2.2 goals per match. Their defense is quite solid, conceding only 0.2 goals on average.

Predictions suggest a slight advantage for Guimaraes with a likelihood of 39.24%.

Overall, a more defensive game seems probable, with a success probability of 105.7% for under 3.5 goals.

Recent encounters between Arouca and Guimaraes suggest that both teams could score, with a success probability of 55.7%.

In conclusion, Guimaraes seems slightly favored, but a close match is expected with probably less than 3.5 goals. Both teams could also score.

The potential number of goals

Arouca wins 40% of their home matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 8. They have a low offensive potential of 29% but a strong defense at 79%.

Guimaraes, when playing away, win 60% of the time. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 11. Their impressive offensive potential of 79% contrasts with their weak defense at 7%.

In their last 5 matches, Arouca has an average of 0.8 goals scored per match and 2.2 goals conceded, while Guimaraes has an average of 2.2 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded.

For the match result, there is a 39.24% chance that Guimaraes wins and a 32.91% probability of Arouca winning. The draw has a probability of 27.85%. For added security, a bet “Draw or Guimaraes wins” has a success probability of 67.09%.

Regarding goals, the major trend is for over 1.5 goals in the match with a 79.11% probability. However, the bet “under 3.5 goals in the match” has a very high probability of 105.7%.

Finally, there is a 55.7% chance that both teams will score.

One thing to note: in their last encounter, Guimaraes defeated Arouca 3-1 away.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, through a detailed analysis of the statistics and past performances of both teams, it appears that Guimaraes holds a significant advantage in terms of offensive potential. Furthermore, Arouca’s home performances show some weaknesses, both defensively and offensively.

However, this does not mean the match will be one-sided. Arouca has shown the ability to score at home, and it is advisable to expect goals from both teams.

Overall, the most probable bets based on these analyses would be to bet on Guimaraes for the win, a total of under 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score. A more adventurous bet could be Guimaraes to win with over 2.5 goals in the match.

Finally, a realistic score prediction would be Arouca 1-2 Guimaraes. It is important to note that these predictions do not guarantee results and each bettor should conduct their own research and make their own decisions. Good luck!