Tipps AS Roma Genoa Serie A 19/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

AS Rome wins the match.

1. Statistically, AS Roma has a 67.2% probability of winning the match, which represents a significant majority compared to the probabilities of a draw (23.81%) and Genoa’s victory (8.99%).

2. AS Roma has shown better performance at home, winning 40% of its last 5 matches, while Genoa has only won 20% of its last 5 away matches. This indicates that AS Roma is a stronger team on their home turf.

3. Despite a lower average goals scored per match (1.2 compared to Genoa’s 1.8), this is not a definitive indicator because AS Roma has shown a solid defense conceding only 1.8 goals on average, giving them a defensive potential of 64%, higher than Genoa’s (43%). Combined with their higher probability of winning, this proves that AS Roma is capable of defending well while scoring the necessary goals to win.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. The goal statistics for each team in their last 5 matches show a strong offensive potential. AS Roma scores an average of 1.2 goals per match while Genoa scores 1.8. Additionally, AS Roma concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match and Genoa concedes 1.2. Therefore, by adding up these averages, the total exceeds 2.5 goals per match, supporting the hypothesis that there could be over 2.5 goals in this match.

2. By examining the results of the recent matches, it can be seen that in a large portion of these matches, the total number of goals exceeded 2.5. For example, AS Roma against Bologna (4 goals in total), AS Roma against AC Milan (3 goals in total), AC Milan against Genoa (6 goals in total), Hellas Verona against Genoa (3 goals in total), and Inter Milan against Genoa (3 goals in total).

3. The odds also indicate a probability of 50.26% that the match in question will have over 2.5 goals, which is not a negligible probability in terms of sports betting. This indicates that bookmakers also believe that there is a significant chance of seeing over 2.5 goals in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Defensive performances: Statistics show that AS Roma has a defensive potential of 64% at home while Genoa has a defensive potential of 43% away. These statistics suggest a strong ability for both teams to prevent the opponent from scoring.

2. Goal statistics: In AS Roma’s last 5 home matches, they have only scored 5 goals, while Genoa scored 7 goals in their last 5 away outings. The low number of goals indicates that the teams have struggled to score, reinforcing the assumption that both teams might not score.

3. Recent head-to-head history: By looking at the teams’ recent encounters, several matches ended with one or both teams failing to score. This pattern of play could continue in their upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

AS Roma 2-1 Genoa

1. AS Roma has shown a strong performance at home against tough opponents such as Juventus, Bologna, and AC Milan, either drawing or winning in 80% of cases. This demonstrates AS Roma’s resilience in defending their home turf, potentially resulting in a 2-1 scoreline.
2. Genoa has displayed offensive capability away from home by scoring in every match played, but also shown defensive vulnerabilities by conceding goals in 80% of matches. Therefore, it’s likely that Genoa would score 1 goal and concede 2 goals.
3. The given statistics indicate that AS Roma has a 67.2% probability of winning the match, with a 79.89% success rate for more than 1.5 goals and a 78.31% success rate for less than 3.5 goals being scored in the match. These data support the idea that AS Roma could win 2-1 against Genoa.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

AS Roma have shown a mediocre performance at home, winning 2 times and conceding 3 draws in their last 5 matches. They have a balanced record of 5 goals scored and 5 goals conceded. Genoa only has one victory away from home, with 3 draws and one defeat, scoring 7 goals and conceding 9.

In terms of offense, AS Roma averages 1.2 goals per game at home, while Genoa performs better, averaging 1.8 goals per game away. However, AS Roma seems to have a more reliable defense, conceding an average of 1.8 goals compared to 1.2 for Genoa.

The probabilities favor AS Roma, with a 67.2% chance of winning, while Genoa has only 8.99%. However, a draw is also possible with a probability of 23.81%.

Statistics also suggest a high probability of more than 1.5 goals (79.89% probability) and less than 3.5 goals (78.31% probability) in the match. The likelihood of both teams scoring is nearly 50%.

Looking at each team’s recent performances, AS Roma has struggled to secure wins, while Genoa has put up a fight against Serie A giants during their away games.

In conclusion, the match is likely to be fairly balanced with a slight edge to AS Roma. A smart bet could be a draw or an AS Roma win, with odds of 1.11. Expecting a few goals but less than 3.5, with odds of 1.33, could be a good option.

The potential number of goals

The AS Roma and Genoa will face each other in a Serie A match. AS Roma shows steady form at home with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded in their last 5 matches. They have won 40% of their games and drawn 40% of the time.

Genoa, when playing away, scores on average more than AS Roma with 1.8 goals per match, but also concedes more with an average of 1.2 goals conceded. Their recent performances show a victory in only 20% of cases and a draw 60% of the time.

On paper, AS Roma seems to be the favorite with a 67.2% probability of winning the match, while Genoa has only 8.99%. This translates to odds of 1.52 for an AS Roma win, and 6.50 for a surprise by Genoa.

The probabilities also predict that over 1.5 goals will be scored during the match with a success probability of 79.89%. There is also a 50.26% chance that there will be over 2.5 goals in the match.

Finally, both teams have almost equal chances of scoring, with a 48.68% probability.

Using all this data, one can predict a match with some goals, with a slight preference for an AS Roma victory.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Taking into account the statistics presented, several key points can be noted to guide betting decisions. AS Roma, playing at home, holds a significantly higher probability of winning against Genoa. Additionally, the strength of their defense coupled with their recent performances reinforces this possibility. The likelihood of a match with over 2.5 goals is also notable, in line with the recent offensive performances of both teams and the trends seen in their recent matches.

However, the numbers also suggest a strong possibility that both teams may fail to score. This contradiction could be explained by AS Roma’s solid defense and Genoa’s occasional struggles in attack.

Ultimately, a bet on a draw seems to offer an interesting value bet. Although this outcome is less likely than an AS Roma victory, based on statistics and bookmakers’ odds, this bet could provide a rewarding return for bettors willing to take a risk.

A bet on the exact score of 2-1 in favor of AS Roma could also be an intriguing option, although it would require a more in-depth analysis of the available data.

In conclusion, this match between AS Roma and Genoa promises to be a competitive and strategic encounter, offering several attractive opportunities for bettors. Bookmakers are offering appealing odds that, with proper analysis, could lead to profitable bets.