Tipps Atletico Madrid Real Madrid La Liga 29/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Atlético Madrid wins the match.”

1. Atletico Madrid has a good home record recently with an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches, and has scored almost as many goals as they have conceded, showing a certain balance between their attack and defense. Furthermore, they have not drawn any of these matches, indicating a tendency to win games rather than drop points.

2. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has a less impressive away record with only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches, and has scored fewer and conceded more goals compared to Atletico Madrid. Their away performance is clearly inferior to Atletico Madrid’s home record.

3. Moreover, the success probability given for Atletico Madrid’s victory is 39.22%, which is slightly higher than that of Real Madrid (38.24%). This suggests that despite the close probabilities, the statistics slightly favor Atletico Madrid to win this particular match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Atletico Madrid has a strong defense at home, conceding on average only 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 games. The team’s defensive potential is estimated at 14%, which is quite low and indicates a robustness in defense.

2. On the other hand, Real Madrid, although having a significant offensive capability away from home with an average of 2.8 goals per match, has only scored 5 goals in their last 5 away games, with a win rate of only 20%.

3. Recent match statistics between the two teams show a relatively low number of goals. In Atletico Madrid’s last 5 home matches, 4 out of 5 had less than 2.5 goals. Similarly, among Real Madrid’s last 5 away matches, none had more than 3 goals scored.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. The offensive potential of both teams: Atletico Madrid has a 50% offensive potential at home, while Real Madrid has 100% away, indicating a high level of offensive performance. These statistics suggest that both teams are capable of scoring in the match.

2. Recent goal-scoring history of each team: In the last five home matches of Atletico Madrid, they have scored between 0 and 3 goals per match. Similarly, in Real Madrid’s last 5 away matches, they have scored between 0 and 2 goals per match. This trend shows that both teams are capable of scoring in their encounters.

3. Statistical success probabilities: With a 52.94% probability of both teams scoring, the provided statistics support this scenario. This probability is higher than the alternative (both teams not scoring, with a 47.06% probability), reinforcing the argument that both teams are likely to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Atletico Madrid wins the match – 39.22% chance of success: 2.80

Bet on the exact result

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid

1. Atletico Madrid has a strong home record with a 80% win rate in their last 5 home matches. However, their ability to score is almost equal to that of their opponents, having scored 10 goals and conceded 10. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has a rather poor away performance, with only a 20% win rate but a high draw rate of 40%. These factors may suggest a balance of power in this match, hence a possible draw.

2. Atletico Madrid has a weak offensive potential at home, averaging only 1.4 goals per match, while Real Madrid has a strong offensive potential away, averaging 2.8 goals per match. However, Real Madrid also has a rather weak defensive potential away, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per match. Considering these statistics, a 1-1 score seems plausible.

3. The odds for the various potential outcomes show that the match is very tight with a slight edge for Atletico Madrid. Furthermore, the probability of less than 3.5 goals in the match is quite high at 73.53%. This, combined with the fact that both teams tend to score and concede goals, leads to predicting a low score like 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Atletico Madrid is strong at home with an 80% win rate. They have scored 10 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2 goals per game. However, their defense seems leaky having also conceded 10 goals.

Real Madrid struggles away from home, winning only 20% of their matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 6 goals in their last 5 away matches.

Apparently, Atletico Madrid has a higher chance of winning with a probability of 39.22% compared to 38.24% for Real Madrid.

Nevertheless, when looking at the goal record, there is a 69.61% chance of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match, which could result in a high-scoring game.

Regarding head-to-head matchups, Atletico shows better performances at home, with wins against RB Leipzig, Valencia, Girona, and Juventus. Real Madrid has been less convincing away from home with only one win against Real Sociedad.

My prediction leans towards a win for Atletico Madrid or a draw, with more than 1.5 goals in the match.

The potential number of goals

Atletico Madrid at home is strong with an 80% win rate. They have scored 10 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2 goals per game. Their home offensive capability is at 50%, but they have also conceded an equal number of goals, raising doubts about their defense.

Real Madrid away is struggling, having won only 20% of their matches and drawn 40%. They have scored 5 goals, averaging 1 goal per game. Their away offensive capability is 100%, but they have also conceded 6 goals, just over 1 goal per game, putting pressure on their defense.

Atletico has a 39.22% chance of winning, while Real is close behind at 38.24%. A draw has a 22.55% chance. These predictions are very close, with a 61.76% probability of a result favoring Atletico or a draw, and for Real, with a draw, the probability is 60.78%.

In 69.61% of cases, more than 1.5 goals are expected in the match, with a 49.02% chance of over 2.5 goals. Less than 3.5 goals are anticipated in 73.53% of cases, and less than 4.5 goals in 87.25%. The chances of both teams scoring are balanced.

Prediction: the match could see more than 1.5 goals. Atletico is likely to score at least one goal at home, and Real, away, should also find the net. An undecided outcome between an Atletico win and a draw is conceivable.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on recent performances, key facts, and calculated statistics, Atletico Madrid seems to have a slight edge to win this La Liga match against Real Madrid. The match is expected to be close, likely ending around 1-1. Both teams could score in this match, supporting a bet on ‘Both teams to score: Yes’. Notably, the bet ‘Atletico Madrid to win the match’ at odds of 2.80 shows an interesting value bet. However, it should be noted that even the best sports predictions do not guarantee a successful bet. Football is unpredictable and anything can happen in a match. Also, always remember: only bet what you can afford to lose. Good luck with your sports betting!