Tipps Atletico-MG Flamengo Serie A 04/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Atletico MG wins the match.

1. Atletico MG’s ability to achieve positive results at home: Despite Atletico MG’s home win percentage being only 20%, they have also managed to secure a draw in 20% of cases, showcasing an ability to avoid defeat.

2. Flamengo’s defensive inconsistency: Flamengo has conceded as many goals as they have scored in their recent away matches, demonstrating some defensive inconsistency that could be exploited by Atletico MG.

3. Head-to-head history: Atletico MG’s recent home matches show that they have managed to score in every game, which could indicate Atletico MG’s ability to score against Flamengo and potentially pick up points.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Atletico MG, despite being weak in terms of home wins, has an average of 1.2 goals scored per match. This is a positive indicator for the over 2.5 goals hypothesis, especially considering they have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches.

2. Flamengo has a stronger record with an average of 1.4 goals scored in their away matches. Furthermore, they have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, which adds weight to the prediction of surpassing the 2.5 goals threshold.

3. By combining the defense and offense of both teams, the total average of goals regularly exceeds 2.5 goals (2.6 goals on average combined). The match also carries a 42.25% probability for over 2.5 goals, according to the provided forecast.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics show that in their last 5 matches, Atletico MG has an average of 1.2 goals scored per match and Flamengo scores 1.4. This trend in scoring indicates that it is likely that both teams will score during the match.
2. The past performances of both teams in their respective matches show that they have both conceded goals. Atletico MG has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match and Flamengo has conceded an average of 1 goal per match. This indicates that their defenses can be penetrated.
3. The recent matches of Atletico MG and Flamengo show a mix of high and low scores, indicating both teams’ ability to score and concede goals. For example, in the Atletico MG vs Caracas FC match, Atletico MG scored 4 goals, and in the Flamengo vs Vasco Da Gama RJ match, Flamengo conceded 6 goals.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Less than 3.5 goals in the match.”

Bet on the exact result

Atletico MG 1-1 Flamengo

1. The performance of both teams in their recent matches suggests a draw. Atletico MG has drawn in 40% of its last 5 home matches, while Flamengo has recorded a draw in 20% of its last 5 away matches.

2. The offensive and defensive potential of both teams is quite similar, with Atletico MG scoring an average of 1.2 goals per home match and Flamengo scoring an average of 1.4 goals per away match, which could lead to a balanced score.

3. The betting odds indicate that the match could be tight, with a draw having a success probability of 32.09%, slightly lower than the probability of Atletico MG winning the match (36.9%) and slightly higher than the probability of Flamengo winning the match (31.02%). This suggests that bookmakers also consider the match to be potentially close and difficult to predict.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Atletico MG, at home, has only won 20% of their last 5 matches with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Flamengo has won 60% of their last 5 away games, scoring 10 goals and conceding the same amount. Atletico MG, at home, shows an offensive capability of 43% and a defensive capability of 79%. Flamengo has demonstrated an offensive potential of 50% and a defensive potential of 36% in their away matches. The probabilities indicate an advantage for Atletico MG with a 36.9% chance of winning compared to 31.02% for Flamengo. The match seems to be rather defensive with an 86.1% probability of having less than 3.5 goals. Furthermore, with a probability of 52.41%, it is possible that both teams score.

The potential number of goals

Atletico MG showed a mixed performance at home, with 20% of wins and draws each. On the other hand, Flamengo has been more successful away with 60% wins.

Atletico MG scored and conceded 7 goals in their recent home matches, while Flamengo scored 10 and conceded the same number in their recent outings.

In terms of offensive performance, Atletico MG averages 1.2 goals scored compared to Flamengo’s 1.4. Defensively, Atletico MG concedes more than Flamengo (2.2 vs 1), giving them a defensive potential of 79% compared to Flamengo’s 36%.

The probability of Atletico MG winning is 36.9%, a draw is at 32.09%, and Flamengo has a 31.02% chance of winning. But if considering either a draw or a win for either team, the probabilities increase to 68.98% for Atletico MG and 63.1% for Flamengo.

Regarding the number of goals, the probability of scoring 1.5 goals or more is 72.19%, while scoring more than 2.5 goals is at 42.25%.

Lastly, the probability of both teams scoring is 52.41%, worth considering for an interesting bet. It’s worth noting that Atletico MG scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches, while Flamengo scored in all their recent away matches.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In sum, the match between Atletico MG and Flamengo appears to be very promising with a high probability of both teams scoring. Despite a mixed performance at home from Atletico MG, the fact that Flamengo has shown some defensive vulnerabilities in away matches suggests a game with several goals. Regarding the outcome of the match, while Atletico MG seems to have a slight edge, a draw remains a non-negligible possibility. Furthermore, the probability of having a total of goals less than 3.5 is also a bet worth considering. Despite the inherent uncertainties in any sports competition, the goal remains to make informed bets in order to maximize one’s chances of success.