Tipps Atletico-MG Sao Paulo Serie A 12/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Atletico MG wins the match.

1. Recent history: Atletico MG has drawn in 40% of its last home matches, while Sao Paulo SP has also ended 40% of its recent away matches in a draw. These statistics suggest that the chances of a draw are quite high. Additionally, Atletico MG has won 42.49% of its matches, indicating they are competitive at home.

2. Offensive and defensive potential: Atletico MG has a defensive potential of 71%, higher than Sao Paulo SP’s 50%. This means they are less likely to concede goals. However, they have a lower offensive potential than Sao Paulo SP (43% compared to 71%), which could limit their ability to score goals. A draw or a win for Atletico MG seems likely given the balance of strengths.

3. Betting probabilities: According to the betting odds, there is a 70.98% chance that the result will be a draw or a win for Atletico MG. This high probability indicates that this scenario is the most likely according to bettors and bookmakers, reinforcing the idea that it is a reasonable bet.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The home performance statistics of Atletico MG show a low offensive capacity with an average of 1.2 goals per match, significantly limiting the total number of potential goals in the match.
2. Despite their decent away performance, Sao Paulo SP has not been exceptionally offensive, scoring an average of 2 goals per match. Considering Atletico MG’s defensive performance of conceding an average of 2 goals per home match, this suggests a low number of goals in the match.
3. Betting statistics and probabilities indicate a trend towards fewer goals, with a success probability of 80.31% for under 3.5 goals and 93.78% for under 4.5 goals. These high percentages suggest a strong likelihood of a match with under 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Offensive potential of the teams: Both Atletico MG and Sao Paulo SP have shown a decent offensive potential in their previous matches, scoring an average of 1.2 and 2 goals per match respectively. This could suggest that there is a chance for both teams to score.

2. Inconsistent defense: Both teams have shown some defensive weaknesses in their previous matches, with Atletico MG conceding an average of 2 goals per match and Sao Paulo SP conceding 1.4. These defensive shortcomings could help both teams to score.

3. Historical statistics: In previous encounters between these two teams, they have often managed to score in the same match. Furthermore, the same trend can be observed in their respective previous matches, which would strengthen the prediction that both teams will score in the upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Sao Paulo SP wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Atletico MG 1-2 Sao Paulo SP

1. Recent statistics: Atletico MG has had poor performances at home with zero wins and an average of 2 goals conceded per match in their last 5 games. On the other hand, Sao Paulo SP has shown a decent performance away from home and averages 2 goals scored per match.

2. Historical performances: In recent matches, Atletico MG has scored at least one goal at home while São Paulo has managed to score at least two goals in their away matches.

3. Betting probabilities: The odds suggest a low probability for Atletico MG to win (42.49%) whereas Sao Paulo SP has a relatively high probability of winning the away match (29.02%), thus pushing back the possibility of a draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Atletico MG is struggling at home, with no wins in 5 matches. They have a 0% win rate and have scored 5 goals in these matches. Their defense is lacking, conceding an average of 2 goals per game.

Sao Paulo SP shows a balanced performance away from home. They have won 40% of their matches and scored 8 goals. They have an offensive potential of 71% with an average of 2 goals per game.

The probability of Atletico MG winning is 42.49%. However, the probability of a draw or Atletico MG winning is higher at 70.98%.

There is a 64.77% probability of more than 1.5 goals being scored in this match. This, combined with Sao Paulo SP’s offensive performance, could indicate a potentially attacking result.

Finally, in terms of goals, the statistics suggest a match with less than 3.5 goals. The probability for this prediction is evaluated at 80.31%.

In conclusion, it is recommended to expect a rather defensive match with less than 3.5 goals, despite some offensive potential from Sao Paulo SP.

The potential number of goals

Atletico MG struggles to win at home with 0% victories in their last 5 matches. Conceding an average of 2 goals per game, the defense is in trouble.

On the other hand, Sao Paulo SP has shown a rather balanced form away from home with 40% wins and the same amount of draws in their last 5 outings.

In the last 5 home matches for Atletico MG, a total of 11 goals were scored, averaging 1.2 goals per match.

Meanwhile, Sao Paulo SP has scored 8 goals in 5 away matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game.

Atletico MG is more defensive with a defensive potential of 71%, while Sao Paulo SP has a strong offensive potential with 71% effectiveness on the road.

The odds suggest a low probability of victory for Atletico MG (42.49%). On the other hand, a draw seems more likely with odds of 3.10. Sao Paulo SP has slightly lower chances of winning, with odds of 29.02%.

Looking at the goals, there is a high probability of less than 3.5 goals in the match (80.31%) with appealing odds of 1.18.

Moreover, the chances of both teams scoring in this match are 48.7%, while the chances of both teams not scoring are slightly higher at 51.3%.

Analyzing all these data, a low-scoring match, potentially a draw, seems like a possible outcome.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Considering the past performances of both teams, recent statistics of their games, betting probabilities, and key factors such as offensive and defensive potential, several conclusions can be drawn.

There seems to be a good chance of a draw or a victory for Atletico MG. However, given Sao Paulo SP’s recent form and the odds offered, a bet on Sao Paulo SP to win could be a “value bet.” It is also likely that the match will see fewer than 2.5 goals, but both teams are expected to score.

Ultimately, despite Sao Paulo SP’s offensive potential suggesting a game with some goals, the betting probabilities and defensive performances of Atletico MG suggest we will see a rather defensive match with fewer than 3.5 goals. All these details make this match a complex yet exciting encounter, open to several possible outcomes.

It is important to bet wisely, taking into account all these analyses and adapting them to your own betting strategy. And of course, always consult your betting advisor before making a decision.