Tipps Atletico Nacional Deportivo Pereira Primera A 18/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Atletico Nacional wins the match”

1. Atletico Nacional has a higher offensive potential (36%) compared to Deportivo Pereira (29%). Additionally, its defensive potential is much better (14% versus 43%). This demonstrates a team stronger in both defense and attack.

2. Deportivo Pereira tends to concede more goals away from home (1.2 goals per game) than Atletico Nacional does at home (0.4 goals per game). This defensive imbalance could prove to be an advantage for Atletico Nacional.

3. The established probabilities are in favor of Atletico Nacional. Indeed, the probability of Atletico Nacional winning the match is estimated at 50.92% compared to 18.4% for Deportivo Pereira. The difference is significant and favors Atletico Nacional.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. The offensive potential of Atletico Nacional at home and Deportivo Pereira away is relatively low, with 36% and 29% respectively. This suggests that both teams may struggle to score.
2. The recent history of both teams shows they are not prone to high-scoring matches. Atletico Nacional has scored 4 goals in 5 home matches, and Deportivo Pereira has scored 6 goals in 5 away matches.
3. The betting trend also suggests a low-scoring match. Under 2.5 goals in the match has odds of 1.62, indicating it is a likely outcome based on betting trends.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Atletico Nacional’s recent defensive performances at home have been exceptional, conceding only 0.4 goals per match on average in their last 5 home games. This indicates a higher likelihood that Deportivo Pereira may not score in this match.
2. Deportivo Pereira has a relatively weak offensive potential away from home, with an average of 0.8 goals scored per match in their last 5 games. This, combined with Atletico Nacional’s solid defense, reinforces the likelihood that they may not score.
3. When analyzing the provided probabilities, “both teams to score” has a success probability of 52.15%. This probability is higher than that of “both teams to not score,” which is 47.85%. Therefore, based on the data, it is more likely that one of the teams will fail to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Atletico Nacional wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Pereira

1. The offensive and defensive potential of both teams: Atletico Nacional scores an average of 1 goal per home match and concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match, while Deportivo Pereira scores an average of 0.8 goals per away match and concedes an average of 1.2 goals per match. These statistics suggest that a 1-1 scoreline is quite plausible.

2. The history of confrontations between the two teams: Looking at the recent matches of Atletico Nacional at home and Deportivo Pereira away, both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede goals. This further supports the possibility of a 1-1 scoreline.

3. The probabilities of successful bets: The probabilities indicate a closely contested match with a slight edge for Atletico Nacional (50.92% probability of success) but a significant chance of a draw (30.67%). Additionally, the “Both teams to score” option has a success probability of 47.85%, which is relatively high. These factors, combined with other considerations, make a 1-1 prediction seem reasonable.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Atletico Nacional, in their last 5 home matches, have a mixed performance with 40% wins and 40% draws. Their defense seems fragile with 7 goals conceded.

Deportivo Pereira, in their last 5 away matches, show a similar performance, with 40% wins and 40% draws, but with a better attack having scored 6 goals.

Let’s look at the goal averages. Atletico Nacional score 1 goal per home match but only concede an average of 0.4.

Deportivo Pereira concedes more goals away from home, with an average of 1.2 conceded and 0.8 scored. Their offensive and defensive potential is weaker than that of Atletico.

The probabilities indicate a 50.92% chance of Atletico Nacional winning. A draw has a 30.67% probability and a 18.4% chance for Deportivo Pereira to win.

For goals in the match, the most likely scenario, at 71.17%, is over 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals have a probability of 43.56%. Even less likely, under 3.5 goals is at 102.45%.

Analyzing recent matches, it appears that both teams have had ups and downs. Atletico Nacional notably lost 3-0 at home to Nacional Asuncion. Deportivo Pereira managed to beat Once Caldas 2-1 away.

In conclusion, the match seems balanced but Atletico Nacional has the advantage at home. Considering a match with over 1.5 goals seems to be the safest bet.

The potential number of goals

Atletico Nacional has found the net 4 times at home in their last 5 matches. Defensively, they have conceded 7 goals. Pereira, on the other hand, has scored 6 times and conceded 7 goals away from home.

Atletico shows an offensive potential at home of 36% and a defensive potential of 14%. Pereira, when playing away, scores 29% of the time and has a defense that falters 43% of the time.

The probability of Atletico Nacional winning is 50.92%, with odds of 1.80. A draw has a probability of 30.67% with odds of 3.40. Pereira has an 18.4% chance of winning with potential earnings of 4.75.

Over 1.5 goals occur in 71.17% of matches with attractive odds of 1.42. If you believe both teams will score, the probability is 47.85% with odds of 2.05.

In conclusion, this match looks balanced offensively. A match with more than one goal is likely. The safest choice would be a draw or a win for Atletico Nacional with a probability of 81.6%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering all these statistical analyses, it appears that Atletico Nacional holds a slight advantage over Deportivo Pereira. Indeed, with superior offensive and defensive potential, as well as a better home performance, Atletico Nacional is well positioned to win this match. However, it is also true that the offensive potential of each team is relatively low, suggesting a low-scoring match.

In terms of betting, a 1-1 scoreline could be an interesting option to consider based on the statistics and recent form of both teams. Furthermore, the bet “Draw or Atletico Nacional wins the match” seems to offer a safe value with a high success probability of 81.6%.

Lastly, it is always important to remember that no bet is ever 100% certain, and that every bettor should always wager based on their own means and convictions.