Tipps Auxerre Estac Troyes Ligue 2 08/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Auxerre wins the match.

1. Historical performance: In their last 5 home matches, Auxerre won in 40% of the cases while Troyes did not win any of their last 5 away matches. Considering the recent performance history, a victory for Auxerre is more likely.

2. Offensive power: Auxerre scored a total of 5 goals in their last 5 home matches while Troyes only scored one goal in their last 5 away matches. This shows an offensive superiority of Auxerre compared to Troyes.

3. Probability of success: Based on the provided data, Auxerre has a 66.67% probability of winning the match, which is significantly higher than Troyes who only has a 9.74% chance of winning.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Recent statistics show that both teams score few goals, with an average of less than 1 goal per match for Troyes away from home and an average of 0.8 goals per match for Auxerre at home.

2. Their previous matches demonstrate a trend of low-scoring games. Out of Auxerre’s last five home matches, four had fewer than 2.5 goals. Furthermore, four out of Troyes’ last five away matches also had fewer than 2.5 goals.

3. The odds offered for under 2.5 goals in the match are 2.20, which is quite high compared to other bets. This indicates that bookmakers also believe there is a high probability that the match will have fewer than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The lack of offensive efficiency of Troyes: indeed, in their last 5 away matches, Troyes has only scored one goal, highlighting a weakness in their offensive play.
2. Auxerre’s defensive ability at home: in their last 5 matches, Auxerre has conceded only 6 goals, averaging 1.2 goals per match. This demonstrates a certain defensive solidity.
3. The recent history of encounters between the two teams shows a tendency towards low-scoring games. Troyes has managed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 away games.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

Auxerre 1-1 Troyes.

1. The high percentage of draws for Troyes away matches: in their last 5 games, Troyes has drawn in 80% of cases. This indicates a strong tendency towards low and tight scores when they are playing away.

2. The offensive and defensive potential of both teams is quite balanced: Auxerre has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 21%, while Troyes has an offensive potential of 36% and defensive potential of 29%. This suggests that the two teams are quite close in terms of performance, which could lead to a draw.

3. Both teams tend to have low scores: in their last 5 matches respectively, Auxerre scored an average of 0.8 goals per match and Troyes 1 goal per match. Furthermore, there is a 64.1% probability that the match will have less than 3.5 goals in total. This reinforces the idea of a low-scoring and balanced match.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Auxerre has a moderate performance at home. In their last 5 matches, they have won 2 times, scored 5 goals, and conceded 6 goals. This indicates that Auxerre has a better defense than attack.
Troyes struggles away from home. They have not won any of their last 5 matches, with 4 draws. However, they have only conceded one goal, showing a solid defense.
Statistics suggest that Auxerre has a 66.67% chance of winning this match. The odds are set at 1.44 for an Auxerre victory.
There is an 81.03% probability of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match, with odds of 1.20. Therefore, at least 2 goals can be expected in the match.
There is also a 52.31% chance that both teams will score, which could make the match exciting to watch.
In conclusion, the analysis recommends betting on an Auxerre win with more than 1.5 goals in the match. This prediction takes into account the recent performances of both teams, but in sports betting, there is never a 100% certainty.

The potential number of goals

Auxerre at home is not doing well. Only 40% win rate with a total of 5 goals in 5 matches. The defense is slightly better, having conceded 6 goals. Weak offensive potential at 29%, slightly better defensive at 21%.

Troyes away from home is also struggling. No wins, with 80% draws, scoring only one goal and conceding one as well. They have a 36% offensive potential and 29% defensive.

The match seems to favor Auxerre. Probability of a home win is 66.67%.

A draw? Unlikely, with only a 23.59% chance.

Troyes winning is unlikely, at 9.74%.

According to the stats, the “Draw or Auxerre win” option has value, with a 90.26% success probability.

Expect few goals. “Under 1.5 goals in the match” is at 4.33 odds, while “over 1.5 goals” has an 81.03% probability despite timid attacks.

The match seems to be leaning towards “Auxerre or draw” with “under 1.5 goals”. It can be concluded that defenses will dominate, especially Auxerre’s at home. Troyes might struggle to score, as seen in their recent away matches.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

To conclude, this analysis suggests that the match between Auxerre and Troyes is expected to be intense but low-scoring based on their recent performances. While anticipating a low-scoring game, Auxerre seems to have the edge over Troyes due to their home performance and superior offensive capability. Based on probability calculations, recent performance, and historical data, the safest bet appears to be a win for Auxerre, or at the very least a draw, with less than 1.5 goals.

However, sports betting involves uncertainty and randomness, so it is important to consider other non-quantifiable factors such as players’ current form, game environment, and teams’ morale. Additionally, although Auxerre’s victory seems likely, Troyes has in the past shown its ability to challenge its opponent on their home turf.

To maximize your chances of success, it is recommended to closely monitor information about both teams leading up to kickoff.