Tipps Bahia Cruzeiro Serie A 23/06/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Bahia BA wins the match”

1. Bahia BA shows a very strong performance at home with a victory in 80% of cases in their last 5 matches and an average of 1.2 goals scored per match.
2. On the other hand, Cruzeiro MG shows a lower performance away from home with only 40% of victories in their last 5 matches and an average of 0.8 goals scored per match.
3. Bahia BA has a higher probability of winning the match according to the provided data with a success probability of 46.56% compared to 21.69% for Cruzeiro MG.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Past performances show that Bahia BA averages 1.2 goals per home match and that Cruzeiro MG averages 0.8 goals away from home. This goal average from each team suggests a low-scoring match.
2. Defensive statistics are also a good indicator. Bahia BA concedes an average of 0.6 goals at home while Cruzeiro MG concedes an average of 0.6 goals away, indicating very good defensive performances.
3. The provided probabilities also suggest a low number of goals. There is a 77.78% chance of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match, which aligns with the prediction of fewer than 2.5 goals. Additionally, the probabilities of “over 2.5 goals” and “over 3.5 goals” are 46.03% and 95.24% respectively, further suggesting a defensive game from both teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Recent History: Bahia BA has shown a strong defense by conceding only 4 goals in their last 5 home matches. Additionally, Cruzeiro MG has scored only 4 goals in their last 5 away matches, indicating a low offensive potential.

2. General Statistics: Bahia BA has a defensive potential of 21% at home, while Cruzeiro MG has an offensive potential of only 29% in their away games. These low percentages suggest that the chances for each team to score are relatively low.

3. Previous Results: The recent performances of Bahia BA at home and Cruzeiro MG away also suggest a low probability of both teams scoring. Bahia BA tends to win without conceding goals, while Cruzeiro MG has had matches where they failed to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Bahia BA wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Bahia BA 1-1 Cruzeiro MG Translation: Bahia BA 1-1 Cruzeiro MG

1. The respective offensive and defensive potential of Bahia BA and Cruzeiro MG: Bahia has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 21%. Similarly, Cruzeiro has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 21%. This indicates that both teams are more likely to score (and potentially concede) a goal.

2. The high percentage of draws conceded by Cruzeiro MG away from home: According to statistics, Cruzeiro MG draws in 40% of cases during its last 5 away matches. Hence, there is an increased possibility for this match to end in a draw.

3. Statistical forecasts for the number of goals in the match: The statistical forecast indicates that the match will have less than 3.5 goals, with a probability of 77.78%. Event congruent with a 1-1 scoreline.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bahia BA has shown strong form at home, winning 80% of their last 5 matches. With an average of 1.2 goals per match, their offensive potential stands at 43%.

On the other hand, Cruzeiro MG is more lukewarm, with a 40% away win rate. Their offensive potential is lower, at 29% with an average of 0.8 goals per match.

The odds indicate a Bahia BA victory at 2.00 with a success probability of 46.56%. A draw is also possible with odds of 3.40 and a probability of 31.75%.

Regarding goals, fewer than 1.5 goals in the match have odds of 3.00. More than 1.5 goals have a probability of 69.31% with odds of 1.38.

Based on the numbers, the match might not be high-scoring. Indeed, fewer than 4.5 goals in the match show a very high probability of 95.24% with odds of 1.07.

Lastly, both teams have nearly equal probabilities of scoring, with 51.32% for “yes” and 48.68% for “no”.

Based solely on the numbers, the trend would be to bet on a Bahia BA victory.

The potential number of goals

Bahia BA has shown a strong performance at home, with an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches. Cruzeiro MG, on the other hand, has a 40% win rate and a 40% draw rate in away games. In terms of goals, Bahia BA averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match, while Cruzeiro MG averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded when playing away.

The probability of Bahia BA winning the match is 46.56%, compared to 21.69% for Cruzeiro MG. The draw has a probability of 31.75%. According to the odds, the safest bet seems to be “Draw or Bahia BA to win the match”, with a success probability of 78.31% and odds of 1.25.

As for goals in the match, the bet “Under 4.5 goals in the match” has the highest success probability at 95.24% with odds of 1.07. The bet “Both teams to score” has a probability of 51.32% and odds of 1.95.

In summary, Bahia BA has a better home record and higher offensive potential. While Cruzeiro MG is less strong away from home, their defensive capabilities are similar to Bahia BA. Therefore, a low-scoring game could be expected.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on the data provided and analyzing the past and present performances of both teams, the prediction recommends betting on a victory for Bahia BA or a draw, with a tendency to anticipate a low total score due to the strong defensive records and modest offensive performances on both sides. The suggestion of a value bet on the match ending in a draw or a victory for Bahia BA seems to offer an attractive opportunity based on the mentioned probabilities. However, it is important to remember that despite all the analysis and expertise, sports betting involves an element of uncertainty and every bettor should always gamble responsibly.