Tipps Bahia Fortaleza EC Serie A 14/06/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Bahia BA wins the match.

1. Statistically, Bahia BA has a fairly strong home performance with a 40% win rate and a 40% draw rate, which favors the prediction of a draw or Bahia BA winning.
2. Fortaleza EC has a relatively low 40% away win rate and only a 20% draw rate, which enhances the likelihood of Bahia BA not losing this match.
3. In terms of probabilities, there is a higher probability of 77.66% for the match to end in a draw or for Bahia BA to win compared to Fortaleza EC winning (22.34% probability).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Taking into account the number of goals scored and conceded by Bahia BA in their last 5 home matches, Bahia BA has an average of less than 2.5 goals per match. Furthermore, Fortaleza EC has an average of 2.0 goals in their away matches, suggesting that this match could see fewer than 2.5 goals.

2. Analyzing the offensive and defensive potential of both teams, Bahia BA and Fortaleza EC both have offensive percentages below 90% and defensive percentages over 40%, indicating a possibly low-scoring match.

3. In terms of probabilities, there is a 79.26% chance of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match and a 96.28% chance of fewer than 4.5 goals. These numbers show a strong tendency towards a low-scoring match, so less than 2.5 goals in the match is a reasonable assumption.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. The previous home matches of Bahia BA and away matches of Fortaleza EC have shown a trend for both teams to score goals. For Bahia BA, although there have been some matches where they failed to score, there are recent examples where they have shown their attacking potential. Fortaleza EC, on the other hand, have scored in all their away matches, illustrating their offensive consistency.

2. The betting odds confirm this analysis. Considering that both teams to score has a success probability of 51.06%, it narrowly exceeds the probability of both teams not scoring (48.94%). This suggests that the match is likely to be competitive and that both teams have a good chance of scoring.

3. Finally, by examining the offensive and defensive potential of each team, it can be seen that both teams have a tendency to score, as well as concede goals. Bahia BA and Fortaleza EC both have offensive potential of over 50% at home and away respectively. Moreover, they have defensive potentials of less than 50%, indicating that they are likely to concede goals in their matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Fortaleza EC wins the match.”

Bet on the exact result

“**Bahia BA 2-1 Fortaleza EC**”

1. Bahia BA has shown great attacking potential of 86% and defensive solidity of 50% in their home matches, indicating a strong ability to score goals and maintain a solid defense. Furthermore, with an average of 2.4 goals scored per home match, this supports the prediction of a 2-goal performance from Bahia BA.

2. Fortaleza EC has a slightly weaker defense away from home, with a defensive potential of 43% and an average of conceding 1.2 goals per match, aligning with the prediction of conceding a goal. Additionally, the fact that Fortaleza EC has conceded 10 goals in their last 5 away matches further supports this argument.

3. The probability of a draw or a win for Bahia BA stands at 77.66%, a fairly strong indication that Bahia BA will not lose this match. Moreover, the probability of Bahia BA winning the match is highest at 44.15%. Adjusting for the fact that not all matches necessarily result in victory, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Bahia BA seems like a reasonable prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bahia BA is stable at home, winning or drawing 80% of their last 5 matches. They have scored and conceded 6 goals, demonstrating a balance between defense and attack. Their offensive potential is 86% and their defensive potential is 50%.

Fortaleza EC shows a mediocre performance away, winning 40% and drawing 20% of their last 5 matches. Their defense seems weaker, conceding 10 goals against 7 scored. Their offensive potential is 64% and defensive potential is 43%.

The odds suggest that Bahia BA has a higher chance of winning (44.15%), while the chances of a draw are 33.51%. Fortaleza EC has only a 22.34% chance of winning.

The expected number of goals is another important factor. Less than 3.5 goals are expected with a probability of 79.26%. This is reflected in the past results of both teams, where fewer than 3.5 goals were scored most of the time.

According to the probabilities (51.06%), it is expected that both teams will score, which could make the match interesting.

In summary, Bahia BA seems to be the favorite in this match, but the opportunities for a draw and both teams scoring cannot be ignored. Bets should be balanced by taking these data into account.

The potential number of goals

Bahia BA, at home, has an offensive strength of 86% with an average of 2.4 goals per match. They have shown a defensive potential of 50%, conceding 1.4 goals per match. On the other hand, Fortaleza EC, away from home, has an offensive potential of 64% with 1.8 goals per match and a 43% defense, letting in 1.2 goals per match.
Bahia BA has had two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last 5 home matches, while Fortaleza EC has achieved two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last 5 away matches.
The probability of a draw or a Bahia BA win is 77.66%, while the same outcome for Fortaleza EC is 55.85%.
The match could see many goals, with a 69.68% probability for over 1.5 goals. However, under 2.5 goals is also likely at 45.74%.
In terms of both teams scoring, there is a 51.06% probability.
Given these figures, a favorable result for Bahia BA or a draw seem to be the most judicious bets.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the statistical analysis suggests a draw or a win for Bahia BA due to their strong home performance and Fortaleza EC’s struggles away from home. The match is likely to have under 2.5 goals given both teams’ lackluster offensive performances. However, it is reasonable to bet on both teams scoring based on their respective histories.

The interesting value bet lies with Fortaleza EC. Despite lower chances of winning, the odds for this team are appealing, providing an opportunity for bettors. In terms of exact score, a 2-1 result in favor of Bahia BA seems like a good bet.

Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that the realm of sports betting always involves uncertainty and risk, and these predictions are based on past statistics that do not guarantee future results. It is advised for everyone to bet responsibly.