Tipps Bastia Estac Troyes Ligue 2 13/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Bastia wins the match”

1. Performance history: In their last 5 home matches, Bastia has a win rate of 60% compared to Troyes’ 20% in away matches. Additionally, Bastia has a higher draw rate at home (20%) than Troyes away (40%).

2. Offensive and defensive dominance: Overall, Bastia shows a better performance in terms of goals scored per match (1.6 against 0.8 for Troyes) and goals conceded per match (0.6 against 2.2 for Troyes). This indicates a superior offensive and defensive potential for Bastia compared to Troyes.

3. Betting probabilities: The odds given for the match outcome favor Bastia with a probability of 55.73%, compared to 15.63% for Troyes. This forecast is based on an analysis of recent performances, suggesting that Bastia has a better chance of winning the match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. The statistics show that Bastia scores an average of 1.6 goals per home match and Troyes scores an average of 0.8 goals per away match. This gives an approximate average of 2.4 goals per match, which is less than 2.5 goals.

2. Troyes’ recent performances away from home show a low offensive potential (29%) and a strong defense (79%). It is therefore likely that they will score few or no goals, but also concede few.

3. Based on the last 5 home matches for Bastia and away matches for Troyes, 7 out of 10 games had fewer than 2.5 goals. This confirms the trend that both teams score and concede few goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes.

1. According to the provided statistics, Bastia has a fairly good offensive capability when playing at home, averaging 1.6 goals per match in their last 5 home games. However, Bastia has also conceded goals, averaging 0.6 goals per match, showing some defensive weaknesses.

2. Despite Troyes’ mixed results away from home, they have managed to score goals in their last 5 matches: averaging 0.8 goals per match. Additionally, they have a weak defense, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match away, giving Bastia a chance to score.

3. Looking at the history of matches between the two teams, both teams have often scored in their respective encounters. Moreover, the probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 51.04%, which is higher than 50%, providing a slight advantage to this prediction.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Troyes wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

“Bastia 2-1 Troyes”

1. Bastia’s Home Performance: In their last 5 home matches, Bastia has shown a strong performance with a 60% win rate and an attacking potential of 57%. On average, Bastia scores 1.6 goals per home match, supporting the predicted score of 2 goals.

2. Troyes’ Away Performance: Troyes has a weak performance away from home with only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches. However, they have still managed to score an average of 0.8 goals per away match, supporting the predicted score of 1 goal.

3. Probability Predictions: Betting odds indicate a 55.73% probability of Bastia winning the match and a 51.04% probability of both teams scoring during the match, supporting the predicted score of 2-1 in favor of Bastia.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bastia is strong at home, with a 60% win rate and 20% draws. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 10.

Troyes struggles away from home, winning only 20% of matches and drawing 40%, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded.

With an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match, Bastia shows an offensive potential of 57% and defensive potential of 21%.

Troyes scores less with an average of 0.8 goals and concedes more, at 2.2 goals per match, making their offensive potential 29% and defensive potential 79%.

According to predictions, Bastia has a 55.73% chance of winning this match, and a draw or a victory for Bastia is highly probable, with an 84.38% chance.

The number of goals could be low, with a 72.4% chance of more than 1.5 goals but only 45.83% for more than 2.5 goals.

Both teams have almost equal chances of scoring or not, with a probability of 51.04% and 48.96%, respectively.

In their recent matches, Bastia has won three times at home against Amiens, Annecy, and Gallia Lucciana, drawn against Paris FC, and lost to Balagne.

Troyes has only one victory in their recent away matches, against Laval, with a draw at Amiens, and losses to Guingamp and Ajaccio, and a draw at Valenciennes.

Based on this data, Bastia seems to be the favorite. The probabilities favor Bastia, with higher chances of scoring and winning. Troyes will need to step up to turn the tide.

The potential number of goals

Bastia has a pretty strong home performance, winning 60% of their recent matches. They have been offensive with 9 goals scored. However, their defense is lacking, conceding 10 goals. Troyes, on the other hand, struggles away from home, with only 20% of victories. Their attacks are more reserved with 5 goals scored and they defend in a balanced manner with 5 goals conceded.

In terms of averages, Bastia is more dynamic offensively, scoring 1.6 goals per home match. Their defense remains alert with an average of 0.6 goals conceded. Troyes seems to have difficulties, scoring 0.8 goals but conceding 2.2 goals on average per away match.

The match prediction gives Bastia as the winner with a 55.73% probability. The draw has a chance of 29.65% while Troyes’ victory is only predicted at 15.63%. By combining the first two options, there is a success probability of 84.38% with an interesting odds of 1.15.

For goal-related bets, more than 1.5 goals seem the most likely at a 72.4% chance. Less than 3.5 goals is highly probable with an 84.38% probability. It seems unlikely that the match will exceed 4.5 goals.

In an evaluation of both teams scoring, the odds are almost equivalent, with a slight edge at 51.04% for both teams to do so.

Based on this information, a realistic prediction for the match would be a not too high-scoring match with Bastia as the favorite team, but not neglecting the possibility of a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the predictions point towards a likely victory for Bastia in this match against Troyes. Bastia’s recent home performances have been solid, with a 60% win rate. Furthermore, they have shown strong offensive potential with 1.6 goals per match, compared to Troyes who struggle away from home. However, Troyes shouldn’t be underestimated in their ability to score when playing away, as evidenced by their average of 0.8 goals per match. This is why an Over/Under 2.5 bet seems highly probable, and the chances of both teams scoring at least one goal during the match seem reasonable. Nevertheless, among the different betting strategies, backing a Troyes win appears to be an enticing option in terms of a value bet despite the relatively low odds. Based on our analysis, a likely exact score would be 2-1 in favor of Bastia. All these predictions should be approached with caution, as football matches are always subject to unforeseen circumstances.