Tipps Benfica Marseille UEFA Europa League 11/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Benfica wins the match.

1. Benfica has won 60% of their last 5 home games, while OM has only won 20% of their last 5 away games. This shows a recent superiority from Benfica, especially when playing at home.

2. Benfica’s offensive performance is also superior to that of OM. Benfica has scored an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last 5 home matches, while OM has only scored 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 away matches, which could favor Benfica to win the match or draw.

3. According to the provided probabilities, there is a 76.92% chance that the match will end in a win for Benfica or a draw. This probability is higher than all other result options (OM win, etc.), reinforcing the idea that betting on a Benfica win or draw is the most logical choice.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Past performances indicate an average of less than 2.5 goals per match: Benfica has scored an average of 1.2 goals per match at home and conceded 0.8 goals, while Marseille has scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded 2 goals away. Combined, these averages do not exceed 2.5 goals.

2. Marseille’s defensive statistics are particularly strong, with a defensive potential of 71%. This suggests that Marseille is capable of containing Benfica’s attack and may limit the number of goals scored in the match.

3. Previous matches between these two teams have often had less than 2.5 goals. Additionally, considering that both Benfica and Marseille have a lower probability of winning the match (40% and 23.08% respectively), this implies that both teams could adopt a more defensive approach.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Benfica and Marseille OM have respectable offensive statistics, with an average of 1.2 goals per match for Benfica at home and 0.8 goals for Marseille OM away in their last 5 matches. This shows that both teams have the ability to score.
2. The defensive statistics of Benfica and Marseille OM also indicate that both teams tend to concede goals. Benfica has conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match at home, while Marseille OM has conceded an average of 2 goals per match away in their last 5 matches.
3. The recent match history of both teams shows a trend where both teams score. For example, in Benfica’s last 5 home matches, both teams scored in all of them, while for Marseille OM away, this was the case in 3 out of the last 5 matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Benfica 2-1 Marseille OM

1. Benfica’s Home Performance: With a 43% offensive potential at home, having scored at least 2 goals in 60% of their last 5 home matches, Benfica has shown a strong offensive performance at home, increasing the likelihood that they will score 2 goals in this match.

2. Marseille’s Defensive Performance Away: With a 71% defensive potential away from home, Marseille has conceded more than 1 goal in 60% of their last 5 away matches, indicating a defensive performance that may not be strong enough to withstand Benfica’s attack, thus allowing Benfica to score 2 goals.

3. Marseille’s Ability to Score Goals Away: Compared to a Benfica team with a clean sheet rate of 29% at home, Marseille has shown limited offensive performance (29% offensive potential) away from home, but has managed to score at least one goal in 40% of their last 5 away matches, increasing the likelihood that Marseille will score 1 goal in this match.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Benfica is in good form at home. They have won 60% of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals. However, their defense is lacking, having also conceded 12 goals.
On the other hand, OM is struggling away from home. They have only won 20% of their last 5 away matches, scoring just 7 goals and conceding 8.
Benfica has an offensive potential of 43% and a defense at 29%. OM has an offensive potential of 29%, but a solid defense at 71%.
The odds favor Benfica with a 40% chance of winning and odds of 1.98. OM has only a 23.08% chance of winning with odds of 3.75.
There is a 76.92% chance that the match will end in a draw or a win for Benfica. If OM wins or there is a draw, the probability is 60%.
For goals, there is a 76.92% chance of having more than 1.5 goals. The probability of fewer than 3.5 goals is 68.21%.
Both teams have a 61.54% chance of scoring in this match.
I would conclude that there is a slight advantage for Benfica due to their home form and offensive performances. However, OM has a solid defense that could turn the tide. The match could be high-scoring.

The potential number of goals

Benfica, at home, is solid with a victory in 60% of the matches and a total of 12 goals scored. However, they have also conceded the same number of goals.
Marseille, away, has less success with a victory in only 20% of the matches and 7 goals scored, but 8 goals conceded.
Benfica’s offensive strength at home is 43%, with an average of 1.2 goals per match, and their defense is 29%, conceding an average of 0.8 goals.
Marseille has an offensive strength of 29% away, with only 0.8 goals scored on average per match, and they have a weak defense at 71%, conceding 2 goals on average.
There is a 40% chance that Benfica will win this match, which has odds of 1.98, while the draw has a probability of 36.92% and odds of 3.80. Marseille’s victory is less likely at 23.08%, with odds of 3.75.
Benfica’s recent home matches have seen many goals, while Marseille has struggled to score away.
There is a high probability (76.92%) of more than 1.5 goals in this match, an option to consider for a safe bet.
The bet that both teams will score has a success probability of 61.54%, perhaps another interesting bet to explore given their history.
Finally, based on the statistics, the match could see less than 3.5 goals with a success probability of 68.21%.
Based on this data, a victory for Benfica or a draw with more than 1.5 goals could be a good prediction.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the data and statistics strongly suggest a match in which Benfica would have the advantage, mainly due to their history of strong offensive performances at home. However, the strong defense of OM should not be underestimated, as it could lead to some surprises. As for the goals, it seems more likely that the match will have a total of less than 2.5 goals, given the current data on both teams’ performances. Additionally, the probability of both teams scoring is quite high, which could offer interesting betting opportunities. Lastly, the predicted exact score is 2-1 in favor of Benfica. Nevertheless, as always in sports betting, it is important to bet responsibly and take into account any possible last-minute changes.