Tipps Bolivia Colombia Qualif. CDM - Amérique du Sud 10/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Colombia wins the match”

1. Colombia has a better defensive performance away from home than Bolivia does at home, as Colombia, in their last 5 away matches, concedes an average of only 0.6 goals per match compared to Bolivia’s 2.2 goals conceded per match at home. This demonstrates Colombia’s stronger defensive solidity.
2. The trend of victories favors Colombia. Although Bolivia has won 60% of their home matches and Colombia 40% of their away matches, the probability of success gives Colombia the edge with 42.55% compared to 26.06% for Bolivia.
3. Colombia has a higher offensive potential away from home than Bolivia does at home. In their last 5 matches, Colombia has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match in their away games, while Bolivia has scored an average of only 1.4 goals per match at home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

More than 2.5 goals in the match

1. Bolivia has a 50% offensive potential at home, while Colombia has a 64% offensive potential away. These figures indicate that both teams are capable of scoring during the match.

2. Bolivia’s defensive potential at home is weak, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match. There is a high chance that Colombia will score at least one goal during the match.

3. Previous matches involving Bolivia at home and Colombia away have often been high-scoring. For instance, in Bolivia’s last home match against Ecuador, 3 goals were scored, and in Colombia’s last away match against the United States, 6 goals were scored.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Colombia’s strong defensive performances: Looking at the statistics, it can be seen that Colombia has a solid defense away from home, conceding on average only 0.6 goals per match. This is a key indicator that suggests Bolivia may struggle to score in this match.

2. Bolivia’s lack of offensive efficiency: Based on Bolivia’s recent matches, their offensive efficiency is rather low with an average of 1.4 goals scored per home match. Furthermore, Bolivia has scored fewer than 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches.

3. Statistical probability: According to the odds given, there is a 52.13% probability that both teams will not score. The statistics also show a high probability that the total number of goals in the match will be under 3.5 (83.51% success rate), further supporting the argument that this match could end with a low number of goals.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Bolivia wins the match.”

Bet on the exact result

Bolivia 1-2 Colombia

1. Colombia has a higher probability of winning the match compared to Bolivia (42.55% against 26.06%). Additionally, Colombia’s offensive potential is higher (64% compared to 50% for Bolivia).
2. On average, Bolivia scores 1.4 goals per match at home, while Colombia scores 1.8 goals per match away. A prediction of 2 goals for Colombia and 1 goal for Bolivia would therefore be in line with these statistics.
3. Although Bolivia has a strong tendency to draw matches at home (40% of their last 5 matches), Colombia’s previous performances away, including a 5-1 win against the USA, indicate its potential to score more goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bolivia has a good home record, with 60% of victories and no matches lost. Colombia, on the other hand, has a decent away record, including 40% of victories.

In terms of offense, Bolivia averages 1.8 goals per home match, while Colombia averages 1.4 goals away. Defensively, Bolivia concedes an average of 2.2 goals per home match, while Colombia only concedes 0.6 away.

The probabilities indicate an advantage for Colombia, with a 42.55% chance of victory against 26.06% for Bolivia. A draw is also possible, at 31.38%.

Betting on under 3.5 goals can be safe, with an 83.51% probability. Both teams are close in terms of scoring, with a slight inclination of 52.13% towards a match where both teams do not score.

Recently, Bolivia has secured impressive home victories, notably 4-0 against Venezuela and 2-0 against Peru. Colombia, on the other hand, achieved a dominant 5-1 victory against the USA in their last away match.

Therefore, even though Colombia has an advantage, a surprise from Bolivia could be possible. A tight match that could end with under 3.5 goals seems to be the most probable prediction.

The potential number of goals

Here are the key points:

– Bolivia has won 60% of its last 5 home matches.
– Colombia has won 40% of its last 5 away matches.
– Bolivia has scored 9 goals and conceded 11 goals in its last 5 home matches.
– Colombia has scored 8 goals and conceded 9 goals in its last 5 away matches.
– Bolivia has an offensive potential of 50% and defensive potential of 79% at home.
– Colombia has an offensive potential of 64% and defensive potential of 21% away.
– Colombia has a probability of winning of 42.55% with odds of 2.46.
– A draw or Bolivia winning has a success probability of 57.45% with odds of 1.50.
– Over 1.5 goals in the match have a probability of 69.15% with odds of 1.40.
– Under 3.5 goals in the match have a probability of 83.51% with odds of 1.22.
– Both teams to score have a probability of 47.87% with odds of 1.85.

The prediction would then be based on these statistics. One possibility would be to bet on under 3.5 goals in the match with a probability of 83.51%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on this detailed analysis and recent statistics, we have several indications for this World Cup qualifying match between Bolivia and Colombia. Colombia seems to have an advantage, not only in terms of the likelihood of victory but also in terms of defensive solidity away from home. However, Bolivia’s impressive performance at home should not be underestimated. In this context, the safest bet appears to be to bet on fewer than 3.5 goals in this match, with a very high probability of 83.51%. The offensive potential of both teams, while significant, will likely be countered by skillful defensive tactics, especially those of Colombia. Therefore, this match promises to be intense and contested, and bettors would do well to take these valuable insights into account for an informed decision.