Tipps Bolivia Venezuela Qualif. CDM - Amérique du Sud 05/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Bolivia wins the match.”

1. Bolivia’s home performance is better than Venezuela’s away performance: in its last 5 home matches, Bolivia won in 40% of cases, while Venezuela did not win a single match in its last 5 away outings.
2. Bolivia has a higher offensive potential at home (29%) than Venezuela away (14%), suggesting a greater likelihood of scoring goals.
3. According to the calculated probability, Bolivia has a 53.76% chance of winning the match against only 20.97% for Venezuela.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Mediocre offensive performance: The average performance of both teams in terms of goals per match is quite low, with Bolivia scoring an average of 0.8 goals per home match and Venezuela only scoring 0.4 goals per away match.

2. Solid defense: Venezuela has a strong defensive performance away from home, conceding on average only 0.8 goals per match. Similarly, even though Bolivia’s defense at home is slightly weaker (conceding 2 goals on average per match), their defensive potential is considered good at 71%.

3. Match score history: The recent matches of Bolivia at home and Venezuela away usually show low scores. For instance, Bolivia has scored less than 2.5 goals in all their recent home matches, and Venezuela has also scored less than 2.5 goals in all their recent away matches.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Low offensive potential: At home, Bolivia scores an average of 0.8 goals per match while Venezuela scores an average of 0.4 goals away. This represents respective offensive potentials of only 29% and 14%, indicating a low goal-scoring rate per match.

2. Strong defensive record: Away from home, Venezuela concedes an average of only 0.8 goals per match with a defensive potential of 29%. This, combined with Bolivia conceding an average of 2 goals per match at home, suggests a reduced likelihood of both teams conceding a goal.

3. Recent statistics: Recent statistics for both teams show a trend towards a low number of goals scored. For instance, among Bolivia’s last five home matches, three resulted in fewer than 2 total goals. Likewise, among Venezuela’s last five away matches, four had fewer than 2 total goals.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Venezuela wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Bolivia 1-0 Venezuela

1. Bolivia’s Home Performance: Taking into account its last 5 home matches, Bolivia has a tendency to score at least one goal and has a 40% probability of winning.
2. Venezuela’s Away Performance: In its last 5 away matches, Venezuela has never won and has a relatively low offensive potential of 14%, which reduces its chances of scoring against Bolivia.
3. Probability of Under 1.5 Goals in the Match: Given the past performances of both teams, there is a strong probability that the total number of goals in the match will be under 1.5. A 1-0 score for Bolivia aligns with this prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bolivia has shown solid form at home with 40% of wins and 60% of draws in their last 5 matches. With 5 goals scored and 7 conceded, their game remains defensive.
As for Venezuela, away from home, they are less impressive with 0% of wins and 60% of draws in their last 5 matches. With only 3 goals scored and 4 conceded, their offensive performance must be considered weak.
In terms of goals, Bolivia has an average of 0.8 goals scored per match against 2 conceded. This gives them an offensive potential of 29% against 71% defensive. For Venezuela, their numbers are even less impressive, with 0.4 goals scored per match to 0.8 conceded, resulting in an offensive potential of 14% against a defensive potential of 29%.
As for the chances of winning, Bolivia leads with a probability of 53.76% compared to 20.97% for Venezuela. However, a draw is still possible with a probability of 25.27%.
Regarding the number of goals, a match with less than 3.5 goals seems very likely with a probability of 84.95%. The least likely outcome is a match with over 4.5 goals.
Finally, it is slightly more likely that both teams will not score, with a probability of 54.3% compared to 45.7% for the opposite option.
Based on this information, a defensive match can be expected, with a possible victory for Bolivia.

The potential number of goals

Bolivia is strong at home, winning 40% of its matches. However, it scores few goals (0.8 goals/match) and concedes a lot (2 goals/match). With a win probability of 53.76%, it dominates Venezuela.

On the other hand, Venezuela doesn’t win any matches away, despite drawing 60% of the time. It does have a more solid defense, only conceding 0.8 goals/match, but its offense is weak (0.4 goals/match). Its potential for victory is low at 20.97%.

The probability of seeing more than 1.5 goals in the match is 72.04%, while the probability of having more than 2.5 goals is at 46.77%. It’s also likely that both teams won’t score (54.3%).

Based on the teams’ recent matches, Bolivia seems to have the advantage playing at home, and the match result could be around a score of 1-0 or 2-0.

Therefore, the statistics indicate an advantage for Bolivia at home with a higher probability of winning. However, the match may be low-scoring. A bet on Bolivia to win with fewer than 2.5 goals in the match could be wise.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, while Venezuela has shown some resistance, Bolivia has the advantage primarily due to their strong performance at home. Based on our analysis, the match is likely to favor Bolivia with a 53.76% chance of winning. Additionally, the low average goals scored by both Bolivia and Venezuela suggests a low-scoring match, possibly less than 2.5 goals.

Another point to consider is the reduced offensive potential of both teams, indicating that they may struggle to score. However, as football is an unpredictable sport, the outcome of the match can still be surprising. Statistics and trends do not guarantee the result, they only serve to inform bettors to facilitate their decisions. Therefore, it is crucial to bet responsibly by taking all these factors into account.