Tipps Bordeaux Ajaccio Ligue 2 03/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Bordeaux wins the match”

1. Bordeaux’s home performance in their last 5 matches is better than Ajaccio’s away performance, with a win percentage of 40% compared to 0% for Ajaccio.

2. The success probability displayed by bookmakers also gives Bordeaux an edge, with Bordeaux having a win probability of 57.51% compared to only 15.54% for Ajaccio.

3. The statistics for goals scored and conceded in the last 5 matches show a slightly favorable trend for Bordeaux, who have managed to score 8 goals compared to the 3 goals scored by Ajaccio.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Ajaccio’s weak offensive performance away from home: Ajaccio has only scored 3 goals in their last 5 away matches, averaging 0.6 goals per game. This indicates a low offensive potential when the team plays away from their stadium.

2. Bordeaux’s goal statistics at home: Bordeaux has scored and conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their last 5 home matches. This suggests a balanced record in terms of offense and defense, which could limit the total number of goals in the match.

3. Preference for low-scoring matches: The fact that bookmakers give a success probability of 74.61% for less than 3.5 goals and 88.6% for less than 4.5 goals suggests that matches involving these two teams tend to have a low number of goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. The statistics show that in their recent respective matches, Bordeaux and Ajaccio have scored a certain number of goals, with Bordeaux scoring 8 goals in their last 5 home matches and Ajaccio scoring 3 goals in their last 5 away matches. These numbers suggest a certain level of offensive play from both teams, thus increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring.

2. Bordeaux has shown a tendency to concede goals, having conceded 8 goals in their last 5 home matches. This defensive potential of 43% indicates that Bordeaux is likely to concede a goal.

3. The probability of both teams scoring is quite high at 52.33%, higher than the probability of both teams not scoring (47.67%). This indicates that it is more likely for both teams to score according to the odds.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

“Bordeaux 1-1 Ajaccio”

1. Based on the last five matches, the average number of goals scored by Bordeaux at home is the same as Ajaccio’s away from home (1.2), which could lead to a draw in terms of goals scored.
2. Ajaccio tends to draw in their recent away matches (40% of the time). Combined with a relatively strong defense (conceding only 0.8 goals per match on average), this could mean that Bordeaux may struggle to score more than one goal.
3. Lastly, the probability of both teams scoring is 52.33%. Taking this into account, and considering that the most common exact scores in football are often low-scoring, such as 1-1, this reinforces the hypothesis of a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Bordeaux appears to be in better form at home, emerging victorious in 40% of recent matches. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 8. The Girondins have an average of 1.2 goals scored and conceded per match, suggesting a 43% offensive and defensive stability.

On the other hand, Ajaccio struggles away from home. No recent victories and only 2 draws in the last 5 matches played. With 3 goals scored and 4 conceded, their offensive and defensive potential remains weaker, at 43% and 29% respectively.

The odds reflect these statistics. Bordeaux is the favorite with a 57.51% probability at odds of 2.05. The draw is at 3.10 (26.94% probability), while an Ajaccio win at 3.75 seems unlikely (15.54% probability).

Observing the goal count, there is a strong tendency towards under 3.5 goals per match (74.61% probability). More than 1.5 goals in the match is also likely at 73.58%. Both teams to score is priced at 2.05 – 52.33% probability.

Recent home performances for Bordeaux: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. Away performances for Ajaccio: no wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.

In conclusion, a Bordeaux win seems probable. Considering the offensive and defensive performances, a match with under 3.5 goals is also worth considering.

The potential number of goals

Bordeaux, at home, tends to win quite often, with a 40% win rate in their last 5 matches. Their defense and attack are balanced, scoring and conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match.

Ajaccio, away from home, struggles to win. They have had no victories in their last 5 away matches, with a low goal average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.

The probabilities favor Bordeaux for this match, with a 57.51% chance of winning. There is a higher likelihood that the match will end in a Bordeaux win or a draw, at 84.46%.

Regarding goals, the safest bet based on statistics is for there to be under 3.5 goals in the match, with a success rate of 74.61%. This aligns with the past performances of both teams.

Finally, there is a 52.33% chance that both teams will score in this match.

In conclusion, this match could very well end in a Bordeaux victory, with probably fewer than 3.5 goals in total.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of past performances, statistical data, and odds suggests that Bordeaux has a better chance of winning the match against Ajaccio. The potential exact score could be around 1-1, given the relatively balanced offensive and defensive capabilities of both teams. However, with the relatively high success rate for less than 3.5 goals, and Ajaccio’s limited offensive potential away from home, a match with less than 2.5 goals also seems likely. Despite both teams showing a tendency to concede goals, a scenario where both teams score is possible, given the odds being less than 50%. Ultimately, a Bordeaux victory with probably less than 3.5 goals in total seems like a realistic prediction.