Tipps Botafogo Penarol Copa Libertadores 24/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Botafogo RJ wins the match.”

1. Botafogo RJ has the highest probability of success at 75.15%, according to the data, indicating that they are the favorites for this match.
2. Despite a variable performance at home, Botafogo RJ maintains a strong defensive advantage, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match compared to an average of 2 goals conceded per match for Penarol away. This could allow Botafogo RJ to prevent Penarol from scoring.
3. Botafogo RJ’s recent home matches show a trend of not losing: two wins and three draws in their last five matches, demonstrating their resilience at home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. At home, Botafogo RJ has an average offensive potential (29%) and has scored a total of 5 goals in their last 5 matches. They only score an average of 0.8 goals per match and concede an average of 0.4 goals per match.

2. Away from home, Penarol has a high offensive potential (86%), but they have also conceded more goals than Botafogo RJ, with a total of 10 goals in their last 5 matches. They score an average of 2.4 goals per match and concede an average of 0.2 goals per match.

3. Looking at the betting odds, there is a high probability that the match will produce less than 3.5 goals (92.12%), indicating that the bookmakers also anticipate a low-scoring match. This reinforces the prediction of less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Recent statistics from Botafogo RJ show an average of only 0.8 goals per home match, representing a low offensive contribution that could decrease the chances of both teams scoring.
2. Penarol displays a fairly low average of only 0.2 goals conceded per away match, demonstrating their strong defensive performance on the road and a reduced likelihood of Botafogo RJ scoring against them.
3. The probabilities indicate a 58.18% success rate for both teams not scoring. This high percentage supports the hypothesis that one or both teams may fail to score during the match, further reinforcing the logic behind this prediction.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Penarol wins the match

Bet on the exact result

“Botafogo RJ 1-2 Penarol”

1. Penarol has a better performance away from home compared to Botafogo RJ at home: With a win percentage of 60% as opposed to Botafogo RJ’s 40% at home, Penarol is capable of securing a victory in this match. Additionally, Penarol averages 2.4 goals per game away from home, which is higher than Botafogo RJ’s home average of 0.8 goals per game.

2. Offensive and defensive statistics: The numbers suggest that Penarol has a stronger attack and a more solid defense than Botafogo RJ, making them capable of scoring at least two goals in this match. Penarol has an offensive potential of 86% compared to Botafogo RJ’s 29% at home.

3. Match history: Looking at Penarol’s away match scores, we see that the club has managed to score more than one goal on multiple occasions. Additionally, Botafogo RJ has faced defensive difficulties in their home matches, which could benefit Penarol in scoring goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Botafogo RJ shows a mixed form at home, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 5 goals and conceding 5. Their offensive and defensive potential is not very high: 29% and 14% respectively.

Penarol, on the other hand, has been more convincing away from home, winning 3 games with 1 draw and 1 loss. The team has scored 9 goals and conceded 10. Penarol stands out with an offensive rate of 86% and defensive rate of 7%.

On paper, Botafogo RJ seems to have the advantage with a 75.15% probability of winning the match. The numbers also suggest a high probability of less than 3.5 goals in the match (92.12% probability). However, both teams are more likely not to score (58.18% probability).

Analyzing their recent matches, Botafogo RJ has been less productive at home while Penarol has shown some superiority away from home.

Overall, considering Botafogo RJ’s weak offensive potential and Penarol’s strong form on the road, a match with less than 2.5 goals could be considered. Despite this, Botafogo RJ’s victory is statistically more likely.

The potential number of goals

Botafogo RJ has shown an average performance at home, winning 40% of their matches, but has struggled to maintain their defense with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per game. However, their defensive potential is at 14%, indicating some ability to contain opposing attacks.

On the other hand, Penarol has proven they can be dangerous away from home, winning 60% of their matches and scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game. Their offensive potential is at 86%, highlighting their strength in attack.

The predicted probability suggests that Botafogo RJ has a 75.15% chance of winning the match, while Penarol only has a 6.67% chance of winning. There is also a high probability of over 1.5 goals (69.7%) during the match, and a slightly lower but still significant probability of over 2.5 goals (47.88%).

Considering Penarol’s offensive potential and Botafogo RJ’s defensive potential, it is likely that both teams will score during the match (41.82%).

In conclusion, the safest bet appears to be a match with over 1.5 goals and both teams scoring. In terms of the result, Botafogo RJ seems to have the edge, although the match could end in a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

After a thorough analysis of the statistics and recent performances of both teams, we can conclude that Botafogo RJ appears to have the advantage in this match with a 75.15% probability of winning. However, the fascinating aspect of this match is Penarol’s strong offensive potential when playing away, although they are considered the underdogs.

According to the numbers, it is likely that this matchup will produce less than 2.5 goals, given Botafogo RJ’s relatively weak offensive potential and Penarol’s solid defense away from home. Furthermore, statistics suggest that there is a significant chance that both teams will not score.

Despite Penarol offering attractive betting value, it’s important to consider Botafogo RJ’s home performance, which has shown resilience. Bettors may also want to consider betting on a specific score of 1-2 in favor of Penarol, which is undoubtedly bold but supported by past performances.

Despite Botafogo RJ’s apparent dominance on paper, the match remains open to potentially surprising outcomes. As always in sports betting, it’s important to be analytical, exercise restraint, and consider the associated risks. Every match is a new story and can always bring its share of surprises.