Tipps Brescia Cremonese Serie B 30/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Cremonese wins the match

1. Cremonese has a higher away win percentage than Brescia at home in the last 5 matches (60% wins for Cremonese vs 60% wins for Brescia), showing some superiority of Cremonese when playing away.

2. Offensive and defensive statistics in the last 5 matches indicate that Cremonese has an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive potential of 29%, compared to 50% and 43% for Brescia respectively. This suggests that Cremonese is likely to score more and concede less, pointing to potential superior performances.

3. Probabilities suggest a greater likelihood of Cremonese winning the match with a probability of 43.98%, compared to 25.13% for Brescia.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Translated in English:
1. In their last 5 respective matches at home for Brescia and away for Cremonese, an average of 2.4 goals per match is observed (1.4 for Brescia and 1 for Cremonese). This indicates a trend towards less than 2.5 goals in their encounters.
2. The defensive statistics of both teams are quite solid, with an average of 1 goal conceded per match for Brescia at home, and 0.8 for Cremonese away. These statistics suggest a high possibility of seeing less than 2.5 goals in this match.
3. The odds indicate a higher probability for less than 2.5 goals (1.68) than for more than 2.5 goals (2.1). This suggests that bookmakers also see less than 2.5 goals as the most likely scenario.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes.

1. Statistically, both Brescia and Cremonese have shown offensive capabilities in their recent matches. Brescia has scored 10 goals in their last 5 home matches, averaging 2 goals per game. Cremonese, on the other hand, has scored 8 goals in their last 5 away matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game.

2. In the last 5 matches, Brescia has displayed defensive weaknesses, conceding 12 goals at an average of 2.4 goals per game. Conversely, Cremonese concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game away from home. These defensive vulnerabilities could lead to a scenario where both teams score.

3. The odds for the “Both Teams to Score” option have a success probability of 49.74%. This indicates that bookmakers also consider this option very likely given the recent performance of both teams.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 3.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Brescia 1-2 Cremonese

1. The trend of both teams shows a high likelihood of scoring goals. Brescia, at home, scores an average of 1.4 goals per match and concedes an average of 1.2 goals, while Cremonese, away, scores an average of 1.6 goals per match and concedes only 0.8 goals. These numbers justify a forecast of at least one goal from each team.

2. The previous performance of both teams plays an important role. In their last 5 matches, Brescia has won 3 times (60%) and lost once at home (40%), scoring 10 goals and conceding 12. On the other hand, Cremonese has won 3 of their last 5 away matches (60%), scoring 8 goals and conceding 9, indicating some superiority away from home.

3. Based on the provided probabilities, Cremonese has a higher probability of winning the match (43.98%) compared to Brescia (25.13%). Furthermore, the exact score of 1-2 has a higher probability since there is a 71.73% chance of having more than 1.5 goals in the match and an 80.63% probability of having less than 3.5 goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Brescia has a decent home record with a 60% win rate and 20% draws. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 12.
Cremonese has similar away results with a 60% win rate. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 9.
On average, Brescia scores 1.4 goals per home game and concedes 1.2, giving them an offensive performance of 50% and a defensive performance of 43%. Cremonese, when playing away, scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 0.8 goals, with an offensive performance of 57% and defensive performance of 29%.
Cremonese is almost 44% likely to win the match, with odds of 2.55. A draw or a Brescia win has a 56% likelihood with odds of 1.50.
There is a high likelihood of over 1.5 goals in the match (71.73%), with odds of 1.36.
Both teams have around a 50% chance of scoring.
Analyzing Brescia’s recent home matches and Cremonese’s away matches, Brescia has conceded at least one goal in four out of five games, while three of Cremonese’s last five away matches have seen both teams score.
The trend suggests a close match with potential for over 1.5 goals. A Cremonese win or a draw could be a reasonable bet.

The potential number of goals

Brescia has won 60% of their last home matches, but has conceded more goals than they have scored. Their offensive capability stands at 50%, with an average of 1.4 goals per match.

Cremonese, playing away, also boasts a 60% win rate. Their offensive strength is at 57% and they score an average of 1.6 goals per match, while conceding few (0.8 goals per match).

The probability of Brescia winning is 25.13%, for a draw it’s 30.89%. Cremonese has a winning probability of 43.98%. There is a 56.02% chance for a draw or a Brescia win, and a 74.87% chance for a draw or a Cremonese win.

In this match, we can expect a total of goals between 1.5 and 2.5. There is a 71.73% chance of more than 1.5 goals in the match and a 44.5% chance of more than 2.5 goals.

Both teams have almost equal chances of scoring, with a success probability of 49.74%.

Reviewing recent results, Brescia has shown good form at home, notably with a 4-0 win over Frosinone. Cremonese has seen success away from home, like the 4-1 victory against Sassuolo.

In conclusion, the match should be competitive, with a slight edge for Cremonese. Opting for a total of goals between 1.5 and 2.5 could be a wise betting choice.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Taking into account the recent performances of both teams and analyzed statistics, it seems that Cremonese has a slight advantage in this Serie B match against Brescia. However, as always in football, nothing is guaranteed. Statistics and probabilities can provide an indication, but the final outcome can be determined by many unpredictable factors, including current form, injuries, or coach decisions.

In terms of betting, focusing on a total of goals between 1.5 and 2.5 seems like a wise choice. Additionally, a victory for Cremonese or a draw could be useful for bettors. The concept of a ‘value bet’ in predicting “under 3.5 goals in the match” also offers an interesting avenue.

Lastly, remember that despite all the expertise and statistical analysis, nothing can replace a good understanding of the game, careful observation of the teams, and, of course, sensitivity to the inherent uncertainty in any sport. Ultimately, betting should remain enjoyable, so make sure to bet responsibly.