Tipps Brescia Spezia Serie B 27/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Brescia wins the match.

1. Brescia has a better home performance with a 40% win rate, unlike Spezia who has not won any away matches in their last 5 outings.

2. Brescia’s offensive potential at home is higher (43%) than Spezia’s away from home (21%), which favors Brescia’s chances of scoring more goals.

3. Probability stats show a higher chance of success (69.59%) for the option of a draw or a Brescia win compared to other possible outcomes.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Spezia’s away performances suggest they struggle to score, with a low offensive potential success rate (21%) and an average of only 0.6 goals per game.
2. Although Brescia has a higher average of goals scored at home (1.2 per game), their offensive potential is not particularly high at 43% and their defensive potential of 36% indicates they tend to limit opponent goals.
3. Spezia’s last five away matches show a trend towards low-scoring games with the majority ending in draws and a low total number of goals scored and conceded.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Spezia’s weak offensive potential: With an average of only 0.6 goals scored per game in their last 5 away matches, Spezia struggles to find the back of the net, increasing the likelihood of the team not scoring during the match.

2. Brescia’s defensive record: Despite conceding an average of 1 goal per game at home, Brescia has managed to keep a clean sheet in 40% of their last 5 home matches. This demonstrates a certain defensive solidity that could prevent Spezia from scoring.

3. Recent trends of both teams: Looking at the teams’ recent matches, there is a trend towards low scoring games. In their respective last 5 matches, Brescia and Spezia have been involved in several games where both teams failed to score. This suggests a potentially close match in their upcoming encounter.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Brescia 1-1 Spezia

1. Draw match statistics: Away in their last 5 matches, Spezia drew in 80% of cases. Additionally, some of Brescia’s recent home matches and Spezia’s away matches ended in a 1-1 draw.

2. Goal statistics: Away, Spezia scores an average of 0.6 goals per match and concedes 0.8 goals, which is close to 1, and Brescia, at home, scores an average of 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1 goal. These data are relatively close to the predicted score of 1-1.

3. Probability data: The draw has a success probability of 36.08%, which is higher than the probability of each team winning individually. Furthermore, the success rate for a match with less than 2.5 goals is 88.66%, which aligns with a 1-1 score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

The Brescia team has been showing inconsistent form at home with only a 40% win rate in their last 5 matches. However, they have a strong offensive level with a total of 8 goals scored.

On the other hand, Spezia has a stronger defensive level in away matches, having conceded only 3 goals, but struggles to secure wins, not having won any of their last 5 matches.

On average, Brescia has the upper hand in attack with 1.2 goals per match, while Spezia scores few goals away, with only 0.6 goals per match.

There is a higher chance of a draw or a Brescia victory with a success probability of 69.59% according to the odds.

The score is more likely to end with less than 2.5 goals, meaning it is unlikely to be a high-scoring match.

Interestingly, there is a greater probability of both teams not scoring during the match, at 51.55% according to the odds.

The potential number of goals

Brescia has scored 8 goals at home in the last 5 matches, but has also conceded 8. Spezia, playing away, has scored 2 goals and conceded 3. Brescia has a home offensive potential of 43% compared to Spezia’s 21% away, showing an offensive superiority for Brescia. However, Spezia seems to have a better defense with a defensive potential of 29% compared to Brescia’s 36%.

Brescia’s victory has a probability of 33.51% with odds of 2.45, while the draw has a slightly higher probability of 36.08% with odds of 3.10. Picking Spezia as the winner has a probability of 30.41% with odds of 2.95.

Regarding the number of goals, there is a 66.49% chance of having more than 1.5 goals with odds of 1.40. Betting on less than 3.5 goals is the safest option with a chance of 88.66% and odds of 1.22.

The analysis of goals in the recent matches suggests a low-scoring game, as both teams are struggling to score.

In conclusion, the data suggests that a draw with less than 2.5 goals would be a possible prediction with respective probabilities of 66.49% and 36.08%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the Brescia vs Spezia match on April 27, 2024, suggests predictions that favor the Brescia team more, especially considering their home performances. According to the statistics, there is a good chance for a draw to be the final result and for less than 2.5 goals to be scored. Furthermore, our data suggests that both teams may struggle to score, further supporting the prediction of less than 2.5 goals. A final score of 1-1 thus seems like a reasonable bet to consider. However, as always in the field of sports betting, it is important to remember that statistics and past trends do not guarantee future results.