Tipps Caen Ajaccio Ligue 2 20/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Caen wins the match.

1. Caen’s home statistics show that the team has not lost the majority of its matches but has drawn in 80% of cases. This indicates a strong resilience of the team when playing on their home turf, increasing the likelihood of a draw or a Caen win.
2. Ajaccio has shown a weakness in away matches, having not won any of their last 5 games. Additionally, they have scored fewer goals than Caen in these matches, signaling attacking problems that could cost them the match.
3. Finally, the calculated probabilities for this match give Caen the advantage or a draw with a success probability of 68.11%. This is a high probability showing that the most likely scenario is a draw or a Caen victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. The recent performances of both teams show a low level of goals scored. At home, Caen has only scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Ajaccio has scored 3 goals in their last 5 away matches.
2. Both teams have relatively weak offensive potentials. Caen has an offensive potential of 21% while Ajaccio has an offensive potential of 36%, indicating a low probability of scoring a high number of goals.
3. Goal statistics from recent matches show a high probability of less than 2.5 goals in the match with odds of 1.57. Compared to other odds, this is one of the lowest, reflecting the low attacking level of both teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: No

1. At home, Caen has a very weak offensive potential, with a scoring rate of only 21%. In other words, they struggle to score goals when playing at home, making it less likely for both teams to score.
2. Ajaccio has a poor away record, scoring an average of 1 goal per match. Combined with Caen’s low home score, this suggests that the match could be low-scoring and that it is possible that one of the teams may not score.
3. In recent matches involving both Caen and Ajaccio, the scores have been relatively low. For example, in Caen’s last 5 matches, they only managed to score in two games, never more than one goal, while Ajaccio scored in three of their last five away matches but never scored more than one goal. These recent precedents indicate that both teams struggle to score, further supporting the argument that both teams may not score during the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Caen 1-1 Ajaccio

1. Draw statistics: Both teams have a high percentage of draws in their last 5 respective matches (80% for Caen and 60% for Ajaccio). This common trend suggests that the match could end in a draw.

2. Offensive and defensive statistics of both teams: Caen has scored an average of 0.6 goals per match and conceded 2.6 goals, while Ajaccio has scored an average of 1 goal per match and conceded 0.8 goals per match. These numbers indicate a similar ability to score goals but a stronger defense on Ajaccio’s side. A 1-1 draw seems plausible.

3. Low number of goals: Taking into account the probabilities related to the number of goals in the match, it is evident that the probability of scoring less than 2.5 goals is significant. Furthermore, the previous statistics show that both teams tend to score few goals. A 1-1 scoreline would align with this trend.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Here is the analysis of the Caen vs Ajaccio match:

Caen has not shined recently at home. In 5 matches, zero wins and four draws. Only 2 goals scored, with a limited offensive potential of 21%. The defense is not much better, with 3 goals conceded, making their efficiency 93%.

Ajaccio has also not secured a win away, with three draws in five games. However, they have scored more, with 3 goals, giving them an offensive potential of 36%. Their defense is more solid with only 5 goals conceded, resulting in a defensive potential of 29%.

The probability of Caen winning is 38.38%. The chances of a draw are 29.73%, and the possibility of Ajaccio winning stands at 31.89%.

Taking these factors into account, and considering the recent performances of both teams, a close scoreline is highly likely. Bookmakers are offering attractive odds for a low-scoring match, such as “under 1.5 goals in the match” at 2.70, or “over 1.5 goals in the match” at 1.45.

Another viable option would be “draw or Caen wins” with a probability of 68.11%.

Based on these numerical elements, a match without much offensive spectacle is to be expected. Now, it’s up to the bettors to decide!

The potential number of goals

Let’s start with Caen. Their home performance is not brilliant, with no wins in the last 5 matches, which is not in their favor. However, they haven’t lost every time, managing to secure a draw in 80% of cases.

Ajaccio, on the other hand, is not more impressive away from home, with zero wins as well. 60% of their matches have ended in draws.

In terms of goals, Caen has scored only 2 goals and conceded 3 goals in their last 5 home matches. Ajaccio, on the other hand, has scored slightly better with 3 goals, but has let in 5 goals.

In potential terms, Caen has a weak offensive side at 21%, but a solid defense at 93%. Ajaccio, on the other hand, seems more balanced with an offensive potential of 36% and defensive potential of 29%.

The success probabilities indicate a close match between the two teams. The most likely option remains the draw or Caen’s victory at 68.11%.

In terms of goals, the match is more likely to have less than 1.5 goals. But if there are more goals, over 2.5 goals have a success probability of 37.3%.

Finally, concerning both teams to score, the probability is almost 50/50.

In conclusion, I would say that this match looks tight and probably low-scoring. The best prediction would probably be a draw or Caen’s victory with less than 2.5 goals in the match. Betting on both teams to score could also be interesting as the odds are almost equal.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Caen and Ajaccio may not provide a very offensive spectacle, given the relatively weak attacking potential of these two teams and their past performance. The most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a victory for Caen, with fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

While there is a chance that both teams will score, statistics show that this is not very likely, at least based on past team performances. Furthermore, with a 68.11% probability for a draw or a Caen victory, bettors may look to capitalize on these statistics to maximize their potential winnings.

It is important to note that while statistics can provide valuable insights, the outcome of football matches is often unpredictable and bets should always be placed responsibly. Ultimately, bettors should make their own decision after conducting research and considering the various factors that could impact the match result.