Tipps Caen Lorient Ligue 2 05/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Lorient wins the match

1. Lorient’s defensive potential: In their last 5 matches, Lorient has conceded only 0.8 goals per game on average, while Caen has conceded 1.6 goals on average. This means that Lorient’s defense is stronger.

2. Success probability: The probability of Lorient winning the match is 44.83%, which is higher than the probability of Caen winning at 20.69%. Statistically, it is therefore more likely that Lorient will emerge victorious.

3. Caen’s weak offensive potential: Despite playing at home, Caen’s past performances show an average of only 1.2 goals per game compared to Lorient’s 1.2 goals while playing away. Caen’s offensive output appears to be low against Lorient’s defense.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Less than 2.5 goals in the match: 1.93

1. Both Caen at home and Lorient away have a rather weak offensive potential, scoring only an average of 1.2 goals per match.
2. The recent away match history of Lorient shows that they rarely score more than one goal per game.
3. The recent home match history of Caen shows that they tend to concede goals but the majority of their matches have less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The offensive potential of each team is relatively high. In their respective last 5 matches, Caen and Lorient have scored an average of 1.2 goals per game, demonstrating a certain ability to score goals.

2. The recent matches of each team show some defensive weaknesses. Caen has conceded a total of 11 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Lorient has conceded 4 goals in their last 5 away matches.

3. Considering the probabilities, there is a 60.92% chance that both teams will score in the match. Taking into account the fact that both teams have shown some vulnerability in defense, this makes this possibility even more likely.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Lorient win – 79.31% chance of success: 1.33

Bet on the exact result

Caen 1-1 Lorient

1. The history of both teams in their recent matches shows a trend towards close-score games. In their last 5 matches, Lorient drew in 40% of cases, while Caen drew in 40% of cases at home, suggesting a high likelihood of a draw.

2. The average goals per match for both teams also align with the prediction. Caen scored an average of 1.2 goals at home, while Lorient scored an average of 1.2 goals in their away matches. Furthermore, the defensive statistics also support this score, with an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match for Caen and 0.8 for Lorient.

3. By analyzing the odds, a draw appears as a likely scenario with a success probability of 34.48%. Moreover, the likelihood of having over 1.5 goals in the match is relatively high at 75.29%, which is in line with a 1-1 score. Similarly, the probability of both teams scoring is 60.92%.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

At home, Caen seems solid, having won 40% of its last 5 matches, and drawn 40% as well. However, a defensive issue is apparent with 11 goals conceded.

Lorient away is less fruitful: 20% wins, 40% draws. Nevertheless, they are solid in defense, having only conceded 4 goals.

Both Caen and Lorient have a similar offensive potential at 43%, but Lorient is stronger in defense.

In terms of predictions, considering Lorient to win seems like a good option, with a 44.83% chance of winning at odds of 2.05. Both teams to score is plausible given their recent results, with a probability of 60.92%.

The match seems quite tight, with a total goals likelihood probably less than 4.5, at 88.51% probability. Be cautious and consider all statistics when making your prediction.

The potential number of goals

Analysis of the Caen vs Lorient match:

Caen has won 40% of its home matches, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per match. They have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 games, indicating a lack of defensive solidity.

On the other hand, Lorient has a win rate of only 20% away from home. Their attack is not very potent, with only 1.2 goals scored per match. However, their defense seems more solid, having conceded only 4 goals in 5 matches.

According to the odds, Lorient is more likely to win the match with odds of 2.05 compared to 3.25 for Caen. There is also a higher probability of a draw or a Lorient win (79.31% versus 55.17% for Caen).

Given the average number of goals scored and conceded by both teams, it is likely that the match will have fewer than 3.5 goals (74.14% chance), and there is also a high probability that both teams will score (60.92%).

Looking at their recent matches, Caen has shown inconsistency at home (wins against Amiens and Ajaccio, draw against Annecy, losses against Paris FC and Guingamp). Lorient, on the other hand, has had draws against Metz and Guingamp, a win against Martigues, and losses against PAU and Amiens away from home.

In conclusion, Lorient seems to have a slight advantage, but the outcome of the match remains uncertain. The prediction is a close match with fewer than 3.5 goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of statistics and past performances indicates that Lorient could have the advantage over Caen in this match, thanks to a stronger defense and a higher success rate. However, football being a sport full of surprises, the outcome of the match is far from certain. The relatively equivalent offensive potential of both teams could suggest a match with goals shared between the two sides and a final score of less than 3.5. Therefore, to maximize your profitability on bets, it would be wise to base your bets on a draw or a victory for Lorient, the under 2.5 goals total, and the likelihood of both teams scoring. For further optimization of gains, betting on an exact score of 1-1 could also be considered a viable option. Lastly, as always in the field of sports betting, it is essential to bet responsibly and wisely.