Tipps Cardiff Millwall Championship 01/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Cardiff City wins the match.

1. Cardiff City has a strong home performance record with a 20% win rate and an impressive 80% draw rate in their last 5 matches. This highlights the solidity of their defense and their ability to withstand opposing attacks, thus increasing the likelihood of a draw or a Cardiff City win.

2. Millwall appears to have a weaker defensive potential compared to away matches, with a 40% win rate and 40% draw rate. This defensive weakness could be exploited by the Cardiff City team, especially since Millwall has an offensive potential similar to Cardiff City’s but concedes more goals per match.

3. The success odds support these perspectives, with a 69.15% chance of a Cardiff City win or draw compared to 63.83% for Millwall. This difference may indicate greater confidence in Cardiff City’s ability to perform in this match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The offensive potential of both teams is quite low, with a 29% potential for Cardiff City and Millwall. On average, Cardiff City and Millwall score 0.8 goals per match respectively, which is below the overall average and suggests a low-scoring match.
2. Cardiff City’s defense is fairly strong at home, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Millwall is even better away, only conceding an average of 0.6 goals per match. These defensive statistics also point towards a low-scoring match.
3. Recent results from both teams show a limited number of goals. In Cardiff City’s last 5 home matches, there have been more than 2.5 goals in only one match. Additionally, in Millwall’s last 5 away matches, only two exceeded 2.5 goals. This indicates a trend towards low-scoring matches between these two teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Cardiff City has a low offensive output at home with an average of just 0.8 goals scored per match in their last 5 games. This means they could struggle to score against Millwall.
2. Millwall also has a poor offensive performance away from home, with a similar average of 0.8 goals scored per match in their last 5 games. This suggests they could also struggle to score against Cardiff City.
3. The data indicates that matches involving these two teams tend to be low-scoring. For instance, the probability of under 3.5 goals in the match is 93.09% and under 4.5 goals is 98.94%. This supports the prediction that both teams will not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Cardiff City 1-1 Millwall.

1. The recent history of both teams indicates a relative advantage for draws. Cardiff City has had 80% draws at home in their last 5 matches, and Millwall has had a draw in 40% of their last 5 away matches.

2. The offensive and defensive performance of both teams is quite similar: at home, Cardiff City scores an average of 0.8 goals per match and concedes 2.2 goals, while Millwall away also scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes 0.6 goals. This suggests that both teams could score 1 goal each in this match.

3. The probability of less than 2.5 goals in the match is very high (93.09%), indicating a match with a likely low score. Therefore, a 1-1 scoreline seems very plausible.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Form of Cardiff at home: Struggling to win with only a 20% win rate and 80% draws in the last 5 matches. The defense is leaky, conceding 7 goals while only scoring 5.

Form of Millwall away: Not bad, with a 40% win rate and 40% draws in the last 5 outings. The offensive/defensive balance is interesting with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded.

Teams’ potential: Cardiff struggles to score with an average of 0.8 goals per match at home. On the other hand, Millwall shines away by conceding only 0.6 goals per match.

Result probabilities: 36.17% chance of Cardiff winning, 30.85% for Millwall, and 32.98% for a draw. Cardiff or draw has a success rate of 69.15%, while Millwall or draw is at 63.83%.

Goals in the match: A tight match is expected with less than 1.5 goals at odds of 2.65 or less than 2.5 goals at 1.53. Only an offensive feat would lead to more than 2.5 goals with a probability of 32.45%.

Both teams to score: Less likely with odds of 2.05 for yes and 1.75 for no.

In the recent matches: Cardiff lost 3 times in 5 home matches. Millwall held strong away with 3 matches unbeaten in the last 5.

The prediction suggests: a draw or Cardiff win at odds of 1.50, less than 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53, and no for both teams to score at odds of 1.75.

The potential number of goals

Translate directly into English:

Analysis Cardiff City at home: 20% win, 80% draw. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7.
Cardiff City’s offensive potential at home: 29%. Defensive potential: 79%.

Analysis Millwall away: 40% win, 40% draw. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 8.
Millwall’s offensive potential away: 29%. Defensive potential: 21%.

Possible outcomes: Cardiff Win 36.17%, Draw 32.98%, Millwall Win 30.85%.

Goal probabilities: Under 1.5 goals 2.65, Over 1.5 goals 67.55%, under 2.5 goals 1.53, over 2.5 goals 32.45%.

Both teams to score: probability 45.21%. Both teams not to score: probability 54.79%.

Last Cardiff home matches: mainly defeats.

Last Millwall away matches: mixed results, some wins.

Prediction based on this data: a close match, under 2.5 goals, possibility of a draw.

Reminder: Predictions remain uncertain, they are based on statistics, but football can be unpredictable.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering the recent performance of Cardiff City and Millwall, the statistics of Cardiff City’s home matches and Millwall’s away matches, as well as their offensive and defensive performances, it is anticipated that the match will end with a low score, likely a draw or a victory for Cardiff City. It is in this context that we recommended the match to end with under 2.5 goals. Regarding the BTTS bet, it is advised to bet on “no” due to the low offensive potential of both teams. For the betting value, a draw should be considered due to the difference in probabilities and odds. Finally, an exact score between Cardiff City and Millwall could be 1-1, considering both teams’ score history and defensive attacks.

However, it should be noted that these predictions are based on statistical analysis and do not guarantee the exact outcome of the match, as unforeseen factors can influence the final result. Therefore, while considering these recommendations, every bettor is encouraged to only wager what they can afford to lose.