Tipps Cerezo Osaka Jubilo Iwata J1 League 19/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Cerezo Osaka wins the match

1. Home domination: Although Cerezo Osaka’s performances at home have not been overwhelming, they have still managed to secure a 60% win or draw percentage. Additionally, they have a solid defense with only 0.6 goals conceded per match on average.

2. Jubilo Iwata’s weakness away from home: Despite some victories, Jubilo Iwata has a low win and draw percentage away from home in their last 5 matches. Moreover, they tend to concede more goals (1.4 goals on average per match) than they score.

3. Advantageous odds: The odds also indicate a significant advantage for Cerezo Osaka with a 51.28% probability of them winning the match, which is more substantial than Jubilo Iwata’s probability of winning at only 20.51%. The difference is quite apparent in tipping the balance in favor of Cerezo Osaka.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Recent statistics from Cerezo Osaka at home and Jubilo Iwata away show that they do not have a great offensive efficiency with an average of 1 and 1.2 goals per match respectively. This may indicate a low total number of goals during the match.
2. In their respective last 5 matches, Cerezo Osaka and Jubilo Iwata have shown a trend of conceding few goals on average (0.6 and 1.4 respectively). This reinforces the idea of a match with less than 2.5 total goals.
3. The sports betting probabilities indicate the most likely scenario of less than 2.5 goals in the match with odds of 1.80. This suggests that bookmakers also expect a low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Cerezo Osaka’s defensive statistics at home are impressive. They have conceded only 4 goals in their last 5 home matches. With a defensive potential of 21%, this indicates that their defense is quite solid, which could hinder Jubilo Iwata’s ability to score.

2. Jubilo Iwata struggles to score away from home. They have only scored 5 goals in their last 5 away matches, and have a relatively weak offensive potential of 43%. This does not bode well for their ability to score against Cerezo Osaka’s solid defense.

3. Both teams have a tendency to play low-scoring matches. The probability of there being fewer than 1.5 goals in the match is 3.30, while the probability for fewer than 2.5 goals is 1.80. This suggests that matches between these two teams tend to be low-scoring, further supporting the idea that one or both teams may not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Jubilo Iwata wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Jubilo Iwata

1. Recent Performance: Recent statistics from both teams show a trend towards draws and low scores for Cerezo Osaka at home, and a similar trend for Jubilo Iwata away matches. The home win rate for Cerezo Osaka (20%) and the away win rate for Jubilo Iwata (40%) also support the hypothesis of a draw.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: The offensive potential of Cerezo Osaka (36%) and Jubilo Iwata (43%) is relatively low, with an average of 1 and 1.2 goals scored per match respectively. Their defensive potential of 21% and 50% respectively also indicates they are not very likely to concede many goals. Therefore, a 1-1 scoreline is quite plausible given these statistics.

3. Bookmakers’ Probabilities: The bookmaker assigns a 28.21% probability for a draw and a 71.79% probability for over 1.5 goals in the match, suggesting a 1-1 score is likely. Furthermore, the probability of both teams scoring is 47.69%, which is fairly balanced and supports the prediction of a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Cerezo Osaka has had mixed performances at home, with a 20% win rate and 40% draws. With a total of 4 goals scored and 4 conceded, their offensive and defensive performance is balanced.

Jubilo Iwata has shown a better performance away, with a 40% win rate and 20% draws. However, they have conceded more goals (7) than they have scored (5).

Osaka has demonstrated a solid defense at home, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. Iwata, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.4 goals per away match, indicating a less stable defense.

In terms of odds, the match is more likely to favor Cerezo Osaka, with a 51.28% chance of winning for them compared to 20.51% for Jubilo Iwata.

There is also a high probability of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match (79.49% chance). The moderate offensive potential of both teams and Osaka’s solid defense support this prediction.

Considering Osaka’s last five home matches, they have only lost once. Likewise, Iwata has suffered only one defeat in their last five away matches. This shows that both teams are in good form.

Taken together, these indicators support a prediction that Cerezo Osaka has a better chance of winning this match.

The potential number of goals

Cerezo Osaka has had a mixed performance at home, with one win and two draws in their last 5 matches. They have scored an average of 1 goal per game, showing a balanced defense and attack, with 4 goals scored and 4 goals conceded. Their offensive and defensive potential stands at 36% and 21% respectively.

Jubilo Iwata, on the other hand, has a more positive record away from home, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. They have a slightly higher average of just over 1 goal per game, but they tend to concede more goals, with an average of 1.4 goals per game, indicating a less solid defense. Their offensive potential is at 43% and their defensive potential is at 50%.

The probability of Cerezo Osaka winning the match is 51.28%. The chance of a draw is at 28.21%, while Jubilo Iwata has a 20.51% probability of winning. Betting on a win for Cerezo Osaka or a draw would have a success probability of 79.49% with odds of 1.18.

In this match, there is a 71.79% chance of there being more than 1.5 goals. However, the probability of both teams scoring is 47.69%. Based on these data and recent matches, a moderate score seems most likely.

In conclusion, this match could be a close encounter with a slight advantage for Cerezo Osaka. Betting on fewer than 3.5 goals could be interesting given the recent form of both teams.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on our analysis, the match between Cerezo Osaka and Jubilo Iwata seems to slightly favor Cerezo Osaka, especially considering their home performance. However, Jubilo Iwata should not be easily dismissed, as they have shown decent performance in their away matches.

Based on recent scoring trends, the match is likely to have a moderate number of goals, probably less than 3.5. It is also probable that one or both teams may not score. This, combined with each team’s performance statistics, suggests that betting on less than 3.5 goals could provide an interesting value bet.

Regarding the exact score, it should be noted that the odds indicate a 28.21% probability for a draw, supporting the hypothesis of a 1-1 scoreline. However, as with any sports prediction, it is important to consider the inherent uncertainty in any football match.

Finally, while the predictions favor Cerezo Osaka to win the match, a value bet could be possible by betting on Jubilo Iwata, given their decent away performance and attractive odds of 4.00 for their victory.