Tipps Cerro Porteno Fluminense Copa Libertadores 26/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Fluminense wins the match

1. Victory Statistics: Fluminense has a 40.96% probability of winning the match, which is higher than Cerro Porteno’s home win rate of 28.19%. This probability differential clearly indicates that Fluminense has better chances of winning the match.

2. Defensive Potential: Fluminense has shown a stronger defense in their recent away matches, with a defensive potential of 57%. While they have only scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches, they have also conceded just 2 goals, demonstrating a solid defense capable of containing Cerro Porteno’s team.

3. Fluminense’s Recent Away Matches: Although Fluminense has only won 20% of their last five away matches, a closer analysis reveals that they have managed to secure draws on multiple occasions, even against strong teams like Alianza Lima and Flamengo. This ability to challenge opponents on their home turf could translate into a victory against Cerro Porteno.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent statistics show that both teams have a low goal-scoring rate per match. Cerro Porteno has averaged 1.8 goals per match at home, while Fluminense has averaged 1 goal per match away. This indicates that they struggle to break through the opposing defensive line.

2. In Cerro Porteno’s last 5 home matches, 4 had less than 2.5 goals. Similarly, in Fluminense’s last 5 away matches, 4 also had less than 2.5 goals. This confirms a trend for these two teams to be involved in low-scoring matches.

3. The defensive potential of each team is relatively high, with 14% for Cerro Porteno and 57% for Fluminense. A strong defensive potential can often result in a low number of goals conceded, which favors a total of less than 2.5 goals overall.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Fluminense’s low offensive potential: With only 1 goal scored on average away from home in the last 5 matches and an offensive percentage of 36%, Fluminense struggles to score goals, increasing the chances of both teams not scoring.

2. Cerro Porteno’s strong defense: Cerro Porteno has shown strong defensive solidity at home, conceding on average only 0.4 goals per match with a defensive potential of 14%. Additionally, in their last 5 home matches, Cerro conceded goals in only one of them.

3. Fluminense’s recent away match trend: In 4 of Fluminense’s last 5 away matches, only one goal or no goals were scored. This demonstrates a trend of low goal production in Fluminense’s recent away fixtures.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Cerro Porteno 1-1 Fluminense

1. The performance of both teams in their last 5 respective matches indicates a tendency for a draw. Cerro Porteno has a 20% draw rate at home, while Fluminense has a 40% draw rate away.
2. Cerro Porteno has a 64% offensive potential at home with an average of 1.8 goals scored per match, whereas Fluminense has a 57% defensive potential away with an average of 1.6 goals conceded. This could lead to a score of one goal each for both teams.
3. The probability of both teams scoring is relatively balanced (48.94%), and the probability of a match with under 2.5 goals is relatively high (79.26%). These two statistical indicators support the scenario of a 1-1 exact score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Cerro Porteno, at home, has won 60% of its last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals, conceded the same amount but the numbers show a strong attack (64%) and a solid defense (14%).

Fluminense, playing away, has fewer victories (20%) but more draws (40%). They have scored and conceded 2 goals, with a moderate offensive potential (36%) and defensive stability (57%).

The prediction gives Cerro Porteno a 28.19% chance of winning, a draw at 30.85%, and Fluminense as the winner at 40.96%. A draw or a Cerro Porteno win has a probability of 59.04% while a draw or a Fluminense win is estimated at 71.81%.

Regarding the number of goals, there is a 72.87% probability of having more than 1.5 goals. Less than 3.5 goals is also very likely at 79.26%. However, the score could remain low: Less than 2.5 goals at 1.65.

Both teams scoring has a 48.94% chance, while the probability of both teams not scoring is slightly higher at 51.06%.

The recent matches show Cerro Porteno strong at home, with two 1-0 victories. Fluminense has struggled away, with two draws and a 2-0 loss against Flamengo.

Based on these figures, a match likely to have few goals is to be expected, and the victory could lean towards Fluminense, despite Cerro Porteno having the home advantage.

The potential number of goals

Cerro Porteno is in good form at home with a victory in 60% of cases. They have an average of 1.8 goals per match and a solid defense conceding 0.4 goals. However, they have also ended in a draw in 20% of cases.

Fluminense, on the other hand, is less efficient away from home. They have a victory in only 20% of cases. They score an average of 1 goal per match, but concede 1.6 goals, showing a fragile defense.

The probability of Cerro Porteno winning is 28.19%, with a draw at 30.85%. Fluminense has a higher probability of winning at 40.96%.

Considering the number of goals, it is likely that there will be less than 3.5 goals with a probability of 79.26%. Both teams have almost equal chances of scoring, with a slight advantage for those who do not score (51.06%).

In the last matches, Cerro Porteno has shown defensive strength, especially against Sportivo Ameliano (3-0). Fluminense has struggled to score away from home, as seen against Flamengo (2-0).

Based on this data, a valid prediction could be a match with less than 3.5 goals. However, Fluminense could still spring a surprise despite their current form.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, for this CONMEBOL Libertadores match between Cerro Porteno and Fluminense, everything indicates that there could be a low number of goals and a probable outcome in favor of Fluminense. The statistics show a trend towards low-scoring matches for both teams, making the bet of “under 2.5 goals in the match” particularly interesting.

However, predicting the winner of this match is proving to be more complex, given that it is an away game for Fluminense. It is worth noting that Fluminense has a slightly higher chance of winning despite the match being held on Cerro Porteno’s turf – statistically, they are the favorites with a win probability of 40.96%, compared to 28.19% for Cerro Porteno.

That being said, in the world of sports betting, there is always a degree of uncertainty and unforeseeable elements. Therefore, it is essential to assess the risk, analyze the full context, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.