Tipps Club America Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX 15/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

According to the analysis of the data provided, my prediction is: Draw or America wins the match.

1. America’s Home Performance: In their last 5 home matches, America have a strong likelihood of winning or drawing with a 60% win rate and 20% draw rate. Additionally, they have shown a good offensive performance by scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match.

2. Guadalajara’s Away Performance: Guadalajara, despite having a higher offensive potential away from home (79%) with an average of 2.2 goals scored per match, have only won 20% of their matches and drawn 40% of the time in their last 5 matches.

3. Statistical Probabilities: According to the provided probabilities, the “Draw or America wins” scenario has a success probability of 81.58%, which is significantly higher than the other scenarios.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. America’s offensive potential at home is 50% with an average of 1.4 goals per match, indicating they do not have a strong attacking presence.
2. Guadalajara has a low offensive potential away from home at 79% with an average of 2.2 goals per match, which is relatively low, suggesting difficulty in scoring on the road.
3. The defensive statistics of America and Guadalajara show they concede an average of 1.6 and 0.8 goals per match respectively, implying their defenses are generally solid, which could limit the total number of goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No.

1. America’s defensive performance: In their last 5 home matches, America has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating a solid defense that suggests the opposing team may struggle to score.

2. Guadalajara’s recent draws: Guadalajara has drawn in 40% of their last 5 away matches, suggesting they might find it difficult to score in this match.

3. Both teams have relatively weak offensive performances: Neither America nor Guadalajara have shown great offensive efficiency in their recent matches, with an average of 1.4 goals per game for America and 2.2 goals per game for Guadalajara. This makes a low-scoring game more likely, increasing the possibility of both teams not scoring.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

America 1-1 Guadalajara

1. Recent statistics show some symmetry between the two teams. In fact, America has scored 7 goals and conceded 7 in their last 5 home matches, while Guadalajara has also scored and conceded 5 goals in their last 5 away matches. This suggests that both teams are quite capable of scoring and conceding at least one goal each in their encounter.

2. The average number of goals scored and conceded by both teams in their last 5 outings also suggests a balanced match. America, on average, scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.6 goals in home matches, while Guadalajara averages 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded in away matches. This, combined with Guadalajara’s low away win rate (20%) and America’s home draw rate (20%), strengthens the idea of a 1-1 draw.

3. Although the probabilities slightly favor an America win (54.74%), there is also a significant chance of a draw (26.84%), which aligns with the prediction. Furthermore, the probability of both teams scoring is 48.95%, close to 50%, suggesting that each team has a strong chance of scoring at least one goal.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

America has a balanced home record, with a 60% win rate and a goals scored/conceded ratio of 1. Their defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match.

Guadalajara, when playing away, has a low win rate (20%) but often draws (40%). They score an average of 2.2 goals and concede 0.8 goals.

Based on probabilities, America is more likely to win (54.74%). Also, the match is potentially with fewer than 3.5 goals (82.63%).

With offensive potentials of 50% (America) and 79% (Guadalajara), the match has a 72.11% chance of having more than 1.5 goals.

In their last 5 matches, America has only lost one home game, against Puebla. Guadalajara, on the other hand, has been defeated twice away.

In conclusion, this match seems to favor America, with a likely score of fewer than 3.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

America has a good home form, winning in 60% of cases. However, its attack and defense are balanced, with a total of 7 goals scored and conceded. On the other hand, Guadalajara’s performance away from home is weaker, with only 20% of wins and a record of 5 goals scored and conceded.

On average, America scores 1.4 goals per game at home but concedes 1.6 goals, revealing a weaker defense than attack. Conversely, Guadalajara is efficient away from home, scoring 2.2 goals and conceding only 0.8 goals per game.

The chances for America to win the match are estimated at 54.74%, with odds of 1.90. A draw is less likely, with a probability of 26.84% and odds of 3.50. Guadalajara has only a 18.42% chance of winning, with odds of 4.00.

The total goals are expected to be low, probably less than 3.5 goals in the match, with a high probability of 82.63% and odds of 1.28. Additionally, there is a 48.95% chance that both teams will score, indicating that the match could be tight.

Analyzing these data, I would recommend a bet on a tight match with probably less than 3.5 goals in the match and America as a possible winning team.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between America and Guadalajara promises to be intense and competitive. Historical data and the probabilities favor America as the home team, but Guadalajara should not be underestimated, considering that their matches against America often end in a draw.

Given the number of goals scored and conceded by both teams, we should expect fewer than 3.5 goals. There is a high likelihood of America winning or the match ending in a draw, although it is not 100% certain. A draw could offer good value betting, with probabilities of at least 26.84%.

It is also important to note that for the bet “Both teams to score?”, we recommend betting “No”, as both America and Guadalajara have shown strong defensive performances.

Ultimately, all predictions should be approached with caution and bets should be placed responsibly. Observing the current form of the teams and having knowledge of statistics are essential tools for making an informed prediction, but football is unpredictable and nothing is guaranteed.