Tipps Club Nacional Sao Paulo Copa Libertadores 16/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Sao Paulo SP wins the match

1. São Paulo SP has a solid defensive characteristic away from home, conceding on average only 0.2 goals per match in their last 5 matches. This suggests they could withstand Club Nacional’s attacks and minimize their opponent’s chances of scoring goals.

2. Although São Paulo SP has a slightly higher probability of winning compared to Club Nacional (36.46% vs. 32.04%), this probability is still higher than that of their opponents, reinforcing the idea that they could win the match.

3. São Paulo SP’s recent performance away from home has shown some consistency, with several draws and a victory. This could indicate an ability to maintain pressure and avoid losing even in unfavorable situations, which could help them secure a win against Club Nacional.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Statistics from the last 5 matches show that these two teams generally have a low average goals per game (Club Nacional with 1.2 goals per home match and Sao Paulo SP with 0.8 goals per away match). The offensive and defensive potential of both teams is also low, indicating a potentially low scoring match.

2. Looking at the specific results of the last 5 matches, it can be seen that in most of Sao Paulo SP’s away matches, fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored. Additionally, at Club Nacional, although a few matches have exceeded the 2.5 goals threshold, it is worth noting that these higher scores were against potentially weaker teams.

3. The odds for betting on “Under 2.5 goals in the match” are lower (1.55) than the corresponding bet for “Over 2.5 goals in the match” (2.40). This suggests that the market also believes it is more likely that there will be fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The statistics from both teams’ previous matches indicate a low offensive output: Club Nacional averages only 1.2 goals per home match, while Sao Paulo SP scores just 0.8 goals per away match. This suggests that in this match, it is likely that one of the teams may struggle to score.

2. Sao Paulo SP’s past away matches show a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals on average per match. This demonstrates the team’s defensive solidity, which may make it difficult for the opposing team to score.

3. The probability of both teams not scoring is 51.93%. This figure, above 50%, indicates that according to the probabilities, it is more likely that both teams will fail to score in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 1.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Club Nacional 1-1 Sao Paulo SP

1. Match history: According to the recent match history, Club Nacional has shown a tendency to score at least one goal at home, just like Sao Paulo SP, who has also managed to score at least once in most of their recent away games.

2. Defensive and offensive performances: The recent defensive and offensive statistics of both clubs support the prediction of a 1-1 draw. Club Nacional has an average of 1.2 goals scored and conceded per home match, while Sao Paulo SP has an average of 0.8 goals scored and only 0.2 goals conceded per away match.

3. Likelihood of results: The odds evaluation suggests that the most likely outcome is either a win for Sao Paulo SP or a draw. However, both teams have similar performances, indicating that a 1-1 draw is a plausible scenario.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

The Club Nacional has a solid home performance, winning 60% of its last 5 matches. They have scored 10 goals but conceded 11, showing a balance between offense and defense.

Sao Paulo SP does not have a good away performance, with only 20% wins in their last 5 matches. They have scored 3 goals and conceded only 4, indicating a more defensive approach.

On average, Club Nacional scores and concedes 1.2 goals at home, with an offensive and defensive potential of 43%.

As for Sao Paulo SP, they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded. Their offensive potential is 29% and defensive potential is 7%.

Although Club Nacional has a 32.04% chance of winning, Sao Paulo SP has a slightly higher probability of 36.46%. A draw is also a possibility with a 31.49% chance.

Overall, a score under 1.5 goals is possible given the average goals scored by both teams, but there is a higher probability of over 1.5 goals (69.61%).

It is very likely that there will be less than 3.5 goals in the match (95.03%), possibly even less than 4.5 goals (104.42%).

Both teams also have a chance of scoring (48.07%).

In summary, the match appears to lean towards a low number of goals, a potential away win for Sao Paulo SP, but the draw option cannot be ruled out.

The potential number of goals

Club Nacional shows strength at home, with 60% recent wins. Their attack is noteworthy, scoring 10 goals in 5 matches. However, their defense is not as solid, conceding 11 goals over the same period.

Sao Paulo SP struggles more away from home, with only 20% wins. Their offensive power has been lacking, with only 3 goals scored in 5 matches, but their defense is strong, conceding only 4 goals.

On average, Club Nacional scores and concedes 1.2 goals per match at home. Sao Paulo SP, in their away matches, averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded.

This sets the stage for a closely contested match. However, probability calculations slightly favor a Sao Paulo SP victory at 36.46%. A draw is also possible at 31.49%.

Regarding the number of goals, the most likely scenario is a match with less than 3.5 goals, with a 95.03% chance.

In conclusion, considering the recent offensive and defensive performances of both teams, a tight game with few goals is expected. Statistics suggest a slight edge in favor of Sao Paulo SP.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the upcoming match between Club Nacional and Sao Paulo SP appears to be quite evenly matched, with a slight preference for a Sao Paulo SP victory, due to their stronger defensive performance. While Club Nacional boasts a significant attacking force at home, Sao Paulo SP’s defense is quite solid, which could limit the number of goals scored by Club Nacional. However, the match could also end in a draw, given the teams’ fairly similar performances.

Regarding the number of goals, statistics and recent performances of both teams suggest a low-scoring match, with less than 3.5 goals. Although Club Nacional has a strong home offense, Sao Paulo SP’s solid defense could hamper their ability to score.

Ultimately, while sports betting is always unpredictable and nothing is guaranteed, probability seems to indicate a slight Sao Paulo SP victory in a low-scoring match. Nevertheless, betting on the exact score may be a riskier but potentially more lucrative option. In any case, it is essential to bet responsibly.