Tipps Club Queretaro Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX 17/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Guadalajara wins the match

1. Guadalajara has a higher likelihood of winning the match with 45.92% compared to Queretaro, which has a probability of 23.47%.
2. Guadalajara has a better away record compared to Queretaro at home, having won in 40% of cases in their last 5 matches, while Queretaro has won 20% of the time in their last 5 home matches.
3. Analysis of recent performances shows a positive trend for Guadalajara, who have managed to win away matches against Atlas and Pachuca, while Queretaro has lost three of their last five home matches.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Queretaro and Guadalajara have respective average goals scored of 0.8 and 0.4 per match, totaling an average of 1.2 goals per match. This is well below the 2.5 goals threshold set for the bet.

2. Defensive statistics show respective average goals conceded of 1.8 and 1 per match for Queretaro and Guadalajara. This indicates that both teams are quite solid defensively, reducing the likelihood of seeing over 2.5 goals during the match.

3. Recent results show that in the majority of both teams’ matches, the total number of goals is under 2.5. Specifically, 4 out of Queretaro’s last 5 home matches have produced less than 2.5 goals, as have 4 out of Guadalajara’s last 5 away matches.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Low offensive potential: By studying the recent performances of both teams, it can be observed that they have a low offensive potential. Queretaro scores an average of 0.8 goals per match at home and Guadalajara scores an average of 0.4 goals away. This makes the probability of ‘both teams to score: no’ more likely.
2. Previous match statistics: The statistics from Queretaro’s last home matches and Guadalajara’s away matches show that both teams have struggled to score. Queretaro has only scored in two of their last five home matches, while Guadalajara has only scored in two of their last five away matches.
3. Projected probability: The projected probability for ‘both teams to not score’ is 52.55%, which is higher than ‘both teams to score’ at 47.45%. Therefore, based on the projected probabilities, it is more likely that both teams will not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Queretaro 1-1 Guadalajara

1. The match between Queretaro and Guadalajara appears to be extremely balanced in statistical terms. For example, in their recent matches as seen above, Queretaro tends to draw at home (60% of the time) and Guadalajara scores few goals when playing away (averaging 0.4 goals per match).

2. Looking at defensive statistics, both teams tend to concede goals. Queretaro concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match at home, while Guadalajara concedes an average of 1 goal per match away. A score prediction of 1-1 seems realistic in this regard.

3. The indicated probabilities suggest that the most likely scenario for this match is under 3.5 goals (77.55% probability), which aligns with a final score of 1-1. Additionally, the probability of a draw (30.61%) is also higher than that of a Queretaro win (23.47%).

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Queretaro has won only once in their last 5 home matches, giving them a win rate of 20%. They have seen more draws, at 60%. Looking deeper into the numbers, they have struggled to score significantly with only 3 goals while conceding 4.

On the other hand, Guadalajara has won twice in their last 5 away games, resulting in a win rate of 40%. The lack of goal scoring could be a concern, as they have only scored 4 goals. However, they have also only conceded 4 goals.

In terms of defensive and offensive performances, Queretaro has a home offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 64%. Guadalajara is not far behind with an away offensive potential of 14% and defensive potential of 36%.

The probabilities favor Guadalajara with a 45.92% chance of winning the match, nearly twice that of Queretaro at 23.47%. A draw is also a possibility with a probability of 30.61%.

In terms of goals, the match is likely to have less than 4.5 goals with a probability of 90.82%. There is a 64.8% probability that there will be more than 1.5 goals in the match.

Lastly, the stats show an almost equal chance of both teams scoring or not. It is therefore an uncertain factor in this match.

Based on these statistics, a favorable outcome for Guadalajara with less than 4.5 goals seems to be the most probable scenario.

The potential number of goals

Queretaro struggles at home, with just a 20% win rate and 60% draws. Only 3 goals scored. Challenging offensively.

Guadalajara is stronger away with a 40% success rate. They have scored 4 goals, but also conceded 4. The balance is unstable.

Queretaro’s home attack is weak: 0.8 goals/match. Defense is more solid with 1.8 goals/match conceded. Defensive potential of 64%.

Guadalajara scores few goals away: 0.4 goals/match. They concede only 1 goal/match. Defensive potential of 36%.

Predictions favor Guadalajara with a 45.92% chance of winning. Queretaro has only a 23.47% chance.

Under 2.5 goals/match is likely: odds at 1.68. Over 2.5 goals have a 40.82% chance with odds at 2.15. Few goals expected.

Both teams to score is at 47.45%. Both teams not to score have a probability of 52.55%. Tight match expected.

Based on these statistics, the match should be close with few goals and a slight edge for Guadalajara.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the statistics and analysis conducted, the most reasonable prediction would be to bet on a win for Guadalajara with less than 2.5 goals scored in the match. The recent performances of both teams suggest a tight and low-scoring game. Their limited attacking potential, combined with solid defensive displays, indicate a match with few goals. As for the BTTS (both teams to score) bet, the statistics do not favor one option over the other, reflecting uncertainty about both teams’ ability to score. Nevertheless, it appears that the most valuable bet option is for less than 2.5 goals in the match. In conclusion, all signs point to Guadalajara emerging victorious from this match, but without a flurry of goals expected.