Tipps Criciuma Bahia Serie A 16/06/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Bahia BA wins the match”

1. Bahia BA’s away performance is better than Criciuma’s home performance: Bahia BA has won 40% of its away matches while Criciuma has not won any of its home matches in the last 5 games.

2. Bahia BA’s defensive potential is much better: Bahia BA concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match away, which is significantly lower than Criciuma’s average of 2 goals conceded per match at home.

3. Based on probabilities, Bahia BA is more likely to win the match with a success probability of 43.46%, compared to only 26.18% for Criciuma.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent statistics show that Criciuma is not very strong at home, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per match. Additionally, they struggle defensively, as evidenced by the average of 2 goals conceded per match. This suggests that there will likely be fewer goals scored in this match.
2. Away from home, Bahia BA has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 14%, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per match. Their offensive performance away from home is not very high, indicating that the total number of goals in this match could also be low.
3. By analyzing the recent matches of these two teams, it is observed that most matches have had less than 2.5 goals. For example, in the last five home matches of Criciuma, three had less than 2.5 goals. Similarly, in the last five away matches of Bahia BA, three also had less than 2.5 goals. These past trends could continue in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. In its last 5 home matches, Criciuma has not won any game and has even finished without scoring on several occasions, indicating a poor offensive performance at home.

2. Away from home, Bahia BA has a solid defense, conceding on average only 0.4 goals per match, thereby limiting the chances for the opposing team to score.

3. Statistics show a slightly higher probability of 51.83% that both teams will not score in this match according to the odds offered by bookmakers.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Criciuma 1-2 Bahia BA

1. Past Performances: Recent statistics show a dominance of Bahia BA with a win against Criciuma away from home and an overall away win rate of 40% compared to Criciuma’s 0% home win rate.

2. Defensive and Offensive Performances: Bahia BA has a better defensive performance away from home, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match compared to Criciuma’s average of 2 goals conceded per match at home. Additionally, Bahia BA’s offensive potential is slightly lower than Criciuma’s (43% vs. 50%), which could result in a closely contested match.

3. Betting Probabilities: The betting probabilities favor Bahia BA to win with a probability of 43.46%. Furthermore, the probability of there being over 1.5 goals in the match is 70.68%, aligning with the exact prediction of 1-2.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Criciuma is showing poor form at home: 0% wins and 60% draws in their last 5 matches. They have scored only 5 goals and conceded 6. Bahia BA wins 40% of their away matches. Their attack is strong with 8 goals in 5 matches, but their defense is lacking, conceding 10 goals.
On average, Criciuma scores 1.4 goals and concedes 2 per match at home. Their offense is at 50% and defense at 71%. Bahia BA, away from home, scores 1.2 goals and concedes 0.4 goals per match. Their attack is at 43% and defense at 14%.
The probabilities favor Bahia BA: 43.46% chance of winning the match against 26.18% for Criciuma. The draw is evaluated at 30.37%.
Furthermore, the probability of less than 1.5 goals in the match is very low. It is expected to have over 1.5 goals in the match with a 70.68% probability.
The recent encounters favor Bahia BA with a 2-0 win against Criciuma. However, Bahia BA lost their last away match 2-1 against Internacional RS.
Ultimately, with a solid defense and effective attack, Bahia BA can achieve a good result. The probability of over 1.5 goals is very high, indicating a potentially goal-rich match.

The potential number of goals

Criciuma struggles at home, without a win and a 60% draw rate. With 5 goals scored and 6 conceded, their defense seems vulnerable. Bahia BA, on the other hand, is more confident away from home with a 40% win rate and 40% draw rate, scoring 8 goals and conceding 10.

On average, Criciuma scores 1.4 goals and concedes 2 per home match. Bahia BA scores fewer, 1.2 goals, but concedes much less, 0.4. These numbers indicate a solid defense by Bahia BA with a defensive potential of 14% compared to 71% for Criciuma.

Looking at the probabilities, Bahia BA has a 43.46% chance of winning against 26.18% for Criciuma. A draw seems more likely, with a 30.37% chance.

In terms of goals, there is a 70.68% chance that the match will have more than 1.5 goals. However, with an 80.1% probability, the number of goals is likely to be under 3.5.

Finally, both teams have a respective 48.17% and 51.83% chance of scoring.

Based on this data, Bahia BA appears to be the favorite for this match. A bet on Bahia BA with a total goals under 3.5 could be a wise choice.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the statistics and recent performances of both teams, Bahia BA appears to have the advantage in this match. They have shown a strong performance away from home and a solid defense, which increases their chances of winning. However, Criciuma has had a relatively high draw rate, especially at home, which doesn’t completely rule them out of the competition. As for the number of goals, the forecast indicates less than 3.5 goals in this match. The most sensible bet would be to wager on a victory for Bahia BA with less than 3.5 goals scored in total. As always, while these predictions are based on statistics and past performances, the outcome of a football match is uncertain and depends on many unpredictable factors. It is therefore advisable to think carefully before placing a bet.