Tipps Criciuma Fortaleza EC Serie A 25/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Criciuma wins the match.

1. Criciuma has a better home performance in their last 5 matches, winning in 40% of the cases, compared to Fortaleza EC’s away performance, who have only won in 20% of the cases. This favors the probability of a win or a draw for Criciuma.

2. The defensive potential of Criciuma at home is 50%, which is higher than Fortaleza EC’s offensive potential away, which is 36%. This factor gives Criciuma an advantage to prevent Fortaleza EC from scoring goals.

3. Based on the probabilities presented, there is a greater chance for the match to end in a draw or with a Criciuma win (68.11%) compared to a draw or a Fortaleza EC win (61.08%). This statistic reduces the risk factor in choosing the prediction “Draw or Criciuma to win the match”.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5 goals in the match”

1. The statistics of the last 5 matches for Criciuma at home and Fortaleza EC away show a lack of offensive strength: Criciuma has scored 7 goals while Fortaleza EC has scored 3, resulting in an average of less than 1.5 goals per match for each team.

2. By analyzing the average goals conceded by both teams, we can see they are 1.4 and 1 respectively, totaling 2.4 goals per match according to these statistics, which supports the prediction of under 2.5 goals.

3. Looking at the recent matches of both teams, it is evident that most games have resulted in a total of goals under 2.5 (e.g. Criciuma 2 – 1 Botafogo or Flamengo 1 – 2 Fortaleza EC). This further reinforces the prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. Goal Statistics: The goal statistics from the last 5 matches show that both Criciuma and Fortaleza EC have a tendency to score goals, with an average of over 1 goal per match (1 for Criciuma and 1.6 for Fortaleza EC). This suggests there is offensive potential in both teams.

2. Defense Statistics: Over the last 5 matches, Criciuma has conceded an average of 1.4 goals and Fortaleza EC has conceded an average of 1 goal. This indicates that the defense of both teams can be breached, giving opposing attackers opportunities to score.

3. Head-to-Head History: By examining Criciuma’s recent home matches and Fortaleza EC’s away matches, it can be observed that both teams have scored goals in the majority of games. This indicates a past trend for both teams to score in their encounters.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Criciuma 1-1 Fortaleza EC

1. The recent performances of Criciuma at home and Fortaleza EC away show an average of goals scored and conceded that corresponds to a final score of 1-1. Criciuma has scored an average of 1 goal per match and conceded 1.4 goals at home, while Fortaleza has scored 1.6 goals and conceded 1 goal on average away.

2. The offensive and defensive potential of both teams is quite balanced. Criciuma has an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 50%, while Fortaleza has an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive potential of 36%. These numbers suggest that both teams have chances to score, but also to concede goals, which could lead to a draw.

3. The betting odds indicate a fairly high probability for a draw (29.19%). Furthermore, “Both teams to score” has a success probability of 51.89%, which reinforces the idea of a match where both teams could score and thus end in a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Criciuma has an average home performance with a 40% win rate. However, Fortaleza EC is weaker away from home with only a 20% win rate.

Offensively, Criciuma scores an average of 1 goal per match but concedes around 1.4 goals, indicating defensive issues.

On the other hand, Fortaleza EC has a stronger offensive performance with an average of 1.6 goals scored away from home, and better defensive resilience with only 1 goal conceded.

In terms of probabilities, a draw or a victory for Criciuma is the most likely outcome with a 68.11% success rate and odds of 1.45.

For the number of goals, our data suggests fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

Regarding the relative performance of the two teams, an interesting point to observe is their recent matches. In particular, the match Criciuma 2 – 2 Bahia BA shows that Criciuma can sometimes struggle to maintain a lead, while the match Flamengo 1 – 2 Fortaleza EC illustrates that Fortaleza EC can spring surprises away from home despite mixed overall form.

Overall, Criciuma seems to have the advantage due to playing at home, but Fortaleza EC has shown its ability to cause upsets. In any case, a low-scoring match is expected.

The potential number of goals

Criciuma won 40% of their last 5 home games, scoring 7 goals and conceding 9. Their offensive power is at 36% and defensive at 50%. On the other hand, Fortaleza EC won 20% of their last 5 away games, with 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their offensive strength is at 57%, defensive at 36%.

On paper, a tight match is expected with few goals. The probabilities indicate a 70.27% chance of over 1.5 goals in the match, but an even stronger probability of 90.27% for under 3.5 goals.

In terms of outcome, probabilities slightly favor Criciuma, with a 38.92% chance of winning against 31.89% for Fortaleza. However, a preferred bet could be “Draw or Criciuma wins” with a 68.11% probability.

It’s slightly more probable that both teams will score (51.89%) rather than not (48.11%).

In conclusion, this match could be tighter than initially suggested by the statistics, with likely few goals and slight advantages for Criciuma. Various scenarios should be considered for your betting choice.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Criciuma and Fortaleza EC is likely to be a tightly contested encounter with probably a low number of goals. Although Criciuma seems to have an edge due to their better home record, Fortaleza EC shouldn’t be underestimated as they have shown their ability to surprise on the road.

Overall, the safest bet seems to be on a draw or a Criciuma win, given their stronger home performances and defensive potential. The odds and statistics also suggest that this match could end with less than 2.5 goals.

However, an interesting potential value bet would be to wager on “Over 2.5 goals in the match.” Despite seeming to go against the overall trend of both teams, their recent offensive and defensive performances indicate a higher probability than what the bookmakers might think.

As for betting on the exact score, a prediction of 1-1 seems plausible considering how both teams have defended and attacked in their recent matches.

These are all predictions based on available statistics and information. As always in sports betting, nothing is ever guaranteed and it is advised to bet responsibly.