Tipps Croatia Poland UEFA Nations League 08/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Croatia wins the match.”

1. Croatia’s home performance: In its last 5 home matches, Croatia has won in 40% of the cases. In comparison, Poland has only won 20% of its away matches. Historically, playing at home provides a distinct advantage.

2. Stronger defensive potential: While both teams score an average of 1.6 goals per match, Croatia concedes slightly fewer goals than Poland (1.4 against 1.6 on average). Given that both teams have similar offensive potential, a better defense could tilt the balance in Croatia’s favor.

3. Win probabilities: Based on the data provided, Croatia has a success probability of 59.49%, compared to only 16.92% for Poland. This is an important indicator that shows Croatia is generally perceived as the favorite for this match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Both Croatia and Poland have shown that they have significant offensive potential with an average of 1.6 goals per home and away match respectively, which could result in at least three goals in the match.
2. Both teams also have a defensive capability lower than their offensive potential (Croatia 50%, Poland 57%), increasing the probability that each of them concedes a goal.
3. By analyzing the last five matches of both teams, many games have had more than 2.5 goals. For example, two out of the last five matches of Croatia had more than 2.5 goals, and two out of the last five matches of Poland had exactly 2.5 goals, indicating a trend that could continue in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. At home, Croatia has an average of 1.6 goals per match in their last 5 matches, and away from home, Poland also has an average of 1.6 goals per match. There is a strong likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal.
2. While Croatia is statistically favored to win the match, statistics also show that Poland has scored in 60% of their away matches, indicating a trend for both teams to score.
3. The recent matches of both teams show a pattern where both teams have often scored. For example, in Croatia’s last 5 home matches, both teams scored in 3 matches, and in Poland’s last 5 away matches, both teams also scored in 3 matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Poland wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Croatia 2-1 Poland

1. Croatia has shown a better performance at home recently (with a 40% win rate) compared to Poland away (with only a 20% win rate).
2. Croatia and Poland have similar goals conceded statistics (1.4 for Croatia and 1.6 for Poland), suggesting that both teams are likely to score in this match.
3. The probability of the match ending with over 2.5 goals is 54.36%, and since Croatia at home scores an average of 1.6 goals per match and Poland away also 1.6, the exact score of 2-1 to Croatia seems like a probable prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Croatia has displayed moderate form at home with a 40% win rate in their last 5 matches and a slightly leaky defense, conceding 8 goals. Poland, playing away, also shows an average level with only a 20% win rate and an identical defensive record of 8 goals conceded.

Croatia has a strong offensive potential at home, averaging 1.6 goals per match. However, Poland while playing away scores the same number of goals on average, indicating a potentially tight match.

Given these statistics, the most likely outcome is a Croatia win with a 59.49% chance. However, the draw, occurring in 20% of cases for Croatia and 40% for Poland, holds a significant probability of 23.59%.

In terms of goals, over 1.5 goals in the match are highly probable (80.51% chance) considering both teams’ average goal-scoring efficiency of 1.6 goals per match.

As for each team scoring, there is a 54.36% chance that both teams will score, reflecting a balanced offensive potential.

In summary, consider either a Croatia win or a draw with over 1.5 goals and both teams scoring.

The potential number of goals

Croatia is comfortable at home, winning 2 out of their last 5 matches. But be careful, they have conceded 8 goals, even though they have scored 7. Offensively, they have a success rate of 57%, but only 50% in defense. Not so solid.

Poland is not very strong away from home. They have only won one of their last five matches, drawing twice. They score as much as they concede, averaging 1.6 goals, with a success rate of 57% both in attack and defense.

The numbers predict a Croatia win at 59.49% and an 80.51% chance of a match with over 1.5 goals.

However, there is a 54.36% chance that both teams will score, as shown in their recent matches – look at “Croatia 1 – 1 Italy” and “France 1 – 1 Poland”.

My numbers don’t lie, but football is unpredictable. It’s up to you to bet.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, it seems that all indicators point towards a victory for Croatia or, at the very least, a draw. The fact that Croatia is playing at home and their recent performances appear to have a significant impact on the predictions. Furthermore, the offensive potential of each team suggests a match with over 2.5 goals, and the probability of each team scoring at least one goal is also high. However, it is worth noting that despite Poland’s position as an underdog, a “value bet” could be found in the “Draw or Poland to win the match” bet based on Poland’s recent away performance. Finally, the predicted exact score of 2-1 in favor of Croatia seems to be consistent with all this data.
Nevertheless, it is important to remember that, despite all these numbers and statistics, football remains an unpredictable sport and anything can happen during the match. So, bet with caution.