Tipps Cruzeiro Bahia Serie A 19/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Cruzeiro MG wins the match

1. Comparatively, Cruzeiro MG has a better defensive potential at home than Bahia BA away, with only 21% of goals conceded compared to 50%. This gives Cruzeiro MG a greater chance of not conceding goals and winning the match.
2. Recent statistics analysis shows that Cruzeiro MG has a 29% offensive potential at home, while Bahia BA has a 36% offensive potential away. Although Bahia BA has a slightly higher offensive potential, the difference is not significantly sufficient to contradict the conclusion that Cruzeiro MG’s home strength could prevail over Bahia BA’s offense.
3. The latest home matches of Cruzeiro MG demonstrate a more stable performance compared to the recent away matches of Bahia BA. Although their winning percentages are similar, Bahia BA has suffered heavy losses in their away outings, indicating a more uncertain and unstable performance compared to Cruzeiro MG at home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Scoring statistics are quite low for both teams. Cruzeiro MG has scored 5 goals in 5 home matches and Bahia BA has scored 4 goals in 5 away matches, indicating a low offensive potential for each of them.

2. The match history also shows a low number of goals. In the last 5 home matches of Cruzeiro MG, there have been only 6 goals and in the last 5 away matches of Bahia BA, there have been only 8 goals.

3. Defensive statistics are also important to consider. Cruzeiro MG has conceded an average of 0.6 goals per home match and Bahia BA has conceded an average of 1.4 goals per away match, adding solidity to our prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Based on the recent performances of both teams, match scores have generally been low. For example, Cruzeiro MG has scored an average of 0.8 goals per match, and Bahia BA has scored an average of 1 goal per match. This indicates a low probability of both teams scoring during the match.

2. The probability of both teams not scoring is slightly higher (52.33%) compared to both teams scoring (47.67%). Bets based on higher probabilities are generally safer.

3. Reviewing previous matches reveals several instances where one or both teams have not scored, such as: Cruzeiro MG 0 – 1 Sao Paulo SP, Cruzeiro MG 0 – 0 Internacional RS, Flamengo 1 – 0 Bahia BA, Fluminense 1 – 0 Bahia BA. This provides an indication of the potential for a match where both teams do not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Bahia BA wins the match”

Bet on the exact result

“Cruzeiro MG 1-1 Bahia BA” translates to “Cruzeiro MG 1-1 Bahia BA” in English.

1. The offensive and defensive potential of both teams: Cruzeiro MG has a home offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 21%. On the other hand, Bahia BA has an away offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 50%. These statistics suggest a balanced match.

2. Recent results: Recent home match results for Cruzeiro MG show that the team often draws (20% of the time) and tends to score and concede a similar number of goals (5 goals scored and 5 goals conceded in their last 5 home matches). On the other hand, Bahia BA struggles to win away from home (20% of the time) and has scored fewer goals than their opponent (4 goals in 5 away matches), which could be a problem against Cruzeiro MG.

3. Success probabilities: The probabilities indicate that a draw has a success probability of 29.07%. Furthermore, the probability of fewer than 2.5 goals being scored in the match is quite high, as well as the probability of both teams not scoring. These factors point towards a 1-1 scoreline.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Cruzeiro MG has not been particularly strong at home recently, with only one win in their last 5 matches. Their goal record is also balanced with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Bahia BA also hasn’t been in great form away from home, with just one win in their last 5 outings. Their goal record isn’t much better with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Cruzeiro MG seems to have a better defense at home, conceding only 0.6 goals per match on average. However, their attacking potential is low at just 29%.

Bahia BA has a slightly better attack away from home, averaging 1 goal per match. Their defense is a bit weaker, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match.

The statistics suggest a higher probability of a win for Cruzeiro MG or a draw, with a combined probability of 78.49%.

Furthermore, the match is likely to be low-scoring, with a 95.93% probability of less than 3.5 goals in the match.

Recent home matches for Cruzeiro MG and away matches for Bahia BA also indicate a low-scoring game and a possible win for Cruzeiro MG.

In summary, the safest bet would be on under 3.5 goals with odds of 1.25, and a separate bet on a win for Cruzeiro MG or a draw with odds of 1.28.

The potential number of goals

Cruzeiro MG at home has shown mixed performances. Out of 5 matches, only one has been won (20%) and the same number ended in draws (20%). They have scored 5 goals and conceded the same amount, indicating a relatively balanced attack and defense.

On the other hand, Bahia BA has not shined away from home. In 5 away matches, they have only won once (20%) and have not managed to draw any. They have scored 4 goals, but conceded 5, revealing defensive weaknesses.

Therefore, Cruzeiro MG has a 29% offensive potential and a 21% defensive potential at home, while Bahia BA has a 36% offensive potential and a 50% defensive potential away from home.

Based on probabilities, Cruzeiro MG has almost a 50% chance of winning the match (49.42%) and a draw has a probability of 29.07%. Bahia BA has lower chances, with a victory probability of 21.51%.

Regarding the number of goals, there is a 68.6% chance of there being over 1.5 goals in the match. Less than 3.5 goals in the match have a very high probability of 95.93%. There is a 47.67% probability that both teams will score.

Looking at the teams’ recent matches, the performances of Cruzeiro MG at home and Bahia BA away do not provide a clear certainty.

In conclusion, this match could end with a relatively low score, possibly in favor of Cruzeiro MG. However, the recent performance of both teams does not offer a clearly favorable prediction.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In the end, statistics and recent performances point towards a match where Cruzeiro MG would be favored with their strong home record and better defensive stability. However, the offensive potential of Bahia BA should not be overlooked. A safe bet would be to wager on under 3.5 goals in the match, given both teams’ tendency to have relatively low-scoring games. For those looking for a “value bet,” a Bahia BA win could be a risky but potentially lucrative option. Although the match seems to be heading towards a low score, it’s important to keep in mind that sports betting always involves a level of risk and the outcome of a match can be influenced by a multitude of unpredictable factors.