Tipps Cuiaba Gremio Serie A 11/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Cuiaba wins the match.

1. Cuiaba has a strong tendency to draw matches at home, with a rate of 80% in their last 5 matches. This indicates that they are able to contain their opponents and would decrease the likelihood of losing, thus supporting the prediction of a draw or a Cuiaba win.

2. Gremio RS seems to struggle when playing away, having only won 20% of their last 5 matches outside their home. Additionally, they have conceded more goals (7) than they have scored (4). This could diminish the chances of a victory for Gremio RS.

3. Probability statistics also support the prediction, with a 72.82% probability that the match will end in a draw or a Cuiaba win. In comparison, the probability of Gremio RS winning or the match ending in a draw is significantly lower at 57.44%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The statistics from previous matches show a lack of offensive efficiency from both teams. In their respective last 5 matches, Cuiaba has only scored 4 goals and Gremio RS has scored an average of 4. This suggests a low-scoring match.

2. Gremio RS has a very strong defensive performance away from home, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match. This reinforces the idea that they could limit the number of goals from Cuiaba, potentially leading to a total of less than 2.5 goals.

3. The available betting odds also support the prediction of less than 2.5 goals in the match. The probability of success for this outcome is less than 2.5 goals in the match at 1.55, which is lower than the probability for more than 2.5 goals in the match at 2.40.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Cuiaba lacks home performances: With no wins and 80% draws in their last 5 home matches, they have shown a poor ability to score goals, having only scored 4 goals in 5 matches.

2. Gremio RS’s weak offensive performances: Away from home, Gremio RS has only won 20% of their matches and has an average offensive performance, scoring only 1.4 goals per match on average. Additionally, Gremio RS has also suffered some away losses, decreasing the chances of both teams scoring in the match.

3. Higher probabilities for a lower total of goals: Probability forecasts suggest a strong likelihood of under 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 goals in the match (with respective probabilities of 82.56%, 93.85%, and 66.15%), supporting the hypothesis that either one or both teams may not score during the match. Furthermore, the match is more likely to end in a draw or a Cuiaba win (72.82%) than with a Gremio RS win (57.44%), which could imply solid defense from Cuiaba.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Cuiaba 1-1 Gremio RS.

1. The recent performances of Cuiaba at home and Gremio RS away show a strong tendency towards draws, especially for Cuiaba who has drawn in 80% of their last 5 home matches.

2. The offensive and defensive statistics of both teams suggest low-scoring matches. At home, Cuiaba has an attacking potential of 21% and concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match. Away from home, Gremio RS scores an average of 1.4 goals per match and has a defensive potential of 14%, which could explain a final score of 1-1.

3. The probabilities also indicate a tight match with a narrow goal margin, 82.56% probability for under 3.5 goals in the match and 66.15% for over 1.5 goals in the match. The both teams to score option has a probability of 50.26%, favoring a prediction of 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Cuiaba is currently not performing well at home. In their last 5 matches: 0 wins, 4 draws. A total of 4 goals scored. Difficult to score with an average of 0.6 goals per match. More worryingly, they have conceded 5 goals.

Gremio RS is also not in great form away from home. Only one win in 5 matches. 4 goals scored, 7 conceded. An average of 1.4 goals scored.

Cuiaba has a low offensive potential at 21%, while Gremio RS is more offensive at 50%. However, Cuiaba has a solid defensive potential at 50%, while Gremio RS is less convincing at 14%.

In terms of probabilities: 42.56% for Cuiaba; 30.26% for a draw; 27.18% for Gremio RS. The “draw or Cuiaba victory” option at 72.82% seems interesting.

For goal betting: Under 3.5 goals at 82.56% seems sensible. On the other hand, over 2.5 goals at 37.95% should be avoided.

The possibility of both teams scoring is fairly balanced at 50.26% but remains risky.

Considering Cuiaba has lost all their recent home matches, and Gremio RS hasn’t shined away, a Cuiaba win seems unlikely, despite the home advantage. A draw seems more plausible. However, the low goal average could lead to a match with few goals expected.

The potential number of goals

Cuiaba, at home, struggles to win with a 0% victory rate in their last 5 matches, although they prove to be resilient by securing a draw in 80% of cases. Their offensive power seems limited with only 4 goals scored, averaging 0.6 goals per match.

Gremio RS, away, remains modest. They win 20% of the time but manage to secure a draw in 40% of cases. Their offensive performance (1.4 goals per match) and defensive record (0.4 goals conceded per match) are superior to Cuiaba.

The majority prediction for this match is either a draw or a Cuiaba win (72.82% probability). One can also expect a low-scoring match. There is a 66.15% probability of more than 1.5 goals in the match, but 82.56% probability supports a total under 3.5 goals. Additionally, there is nearly an equal chance of both teams scoring or not scoring.

Therefore, Cuiaba might keep their opponents, Gremio RS, at bay, but caution is advised. A low-scoring draw could be the most likely outcome.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, given the recent performances of Cuiaba and Gremio RS, a draw with a low goal score seems to be the most likely outcome for this Serie A match. Cuiaba has a strong tendency to draw when playing at home, and Gremio RS struggles to win away games. Additionally, with both teams showing weaknesses in their offensive play, it is unlikely that there will be more than 2.5 goals in this match. However, sports betting always involves a certain level of risk, and it is important to consider potential variations in team form and unexpected events that may occur during matches. Therefore, it would be wise to bet cautiously on this match.