Tipps Deportivo Cali Junior Primera A 29/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Deportivo Cali wins the match

1. In their last 5 home matches, Deportivo Cali has shown a high draw rate of 60%. Their combined probability of winning or drawing is 80%, which is higher than Junior Barranquilla’s away performance.
2. Deportivo Cali has a success probability of 65.59% for a draw or win in this match, based on the betting odds, which is higher than Junior Barranquilla’s win probability.
3. In the majority of matches played by Deportivo Cali at home, there have been less than 3.5 goals scored, with a probability of 89.25%. This reduces the chances of a crushing victory for Junior Barranquilla and increases the likelihood of a draw or a narrow win for Deportivo Cali.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Recent Performance Analysis: Over their last 5 home matches, Deportivo Cali has scored only 5 goals, averaging 1 goal per match. On the other hand, Junior Barranquilla has scored just 8 goals in 5 away matches, averaging 1.6 goals per match. Both teams have relatively weak offensive performances, increasing the likelihood of a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.

2. Defensive Statistics: Deportivo Cali has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match in their recent home games, while Junior Barranquilla has conceded 1.2 goals per match away. These numbers indicate that both teams have solid defenses, which could potentially limit the number of goals scored in the match.

3. Success Probabilities: The provided statistics show an 89.25% probability of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match, suggesting a trend towards matches with a relatively low number of goals. Therefore, a prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match seems logical.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Deportivo Cali’s defensive performance at home is relatively solid, having conceded only 1.6 goals per match on average in their last 5 home games. Furthermore, they have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 home matches.

2. Junior Barranquilla has shown a rather limited offensive capability in their last 5 away matches, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per game. Additionally, they failed to score in two of these matches.

3. Betting statistics indicate a higher probability (54.3%) of both teams not scoring. This probability is supported by the recent defensive and offensive performances of both teams.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Deportivo Cali 1-1 Junior Barranquilla

1. Deportivo Cali have a strong home record with 60% of draws in their last 5 matches. Additionally, they average 1.4 goals per game, aligning with a predicted score of one goal.

2. Junior Barranquilla, when playing away, have both offensive and defensive potential of 43%, suggesting they are likely to score and concede a goal. Furthermore, their goals scored and conceded average is also very close to a predicted score of one goal.

3. Overall statistics point towards a low probability of a high-scoring match, with only 35.48% chance of over 2.5 goals in the game, reinforcing the idea that the final score could be 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Deportivo Cali, at home, has a moderate performance with a 20% win rate and a 60% draw rate in the last 5 matches. With 5 goals scored and 6 conceded, their average is 1.4 goals scored per match and they concede an average of 1.6 goals.

Junior Barranquilla, playing away, shows a better performance with a 40% win rate and no draws. They have scored 8 goals and conceded the same number, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and conceded per match.

With a 34.95% probability of winning the match, Deportivo Cali is nearly on par with Barranquilla who has a 34.41% probability. A draw or a Deportivo Cali win has a 65.59% chance, while a draw or a Barranquilla win is at 65.05%.

Regarding the number of goals, over 1.5 goals is likely at 66.13%. Less than 3.5 goals have an 89.25% probability. Finally, both teams scoring has a 45.7% probability.

In conclusion, a match with less than 3.5 goals, where both teams do not score, and which ends in a draw or a Deportivo Cali win, seems the most probable.

The potential number of goals

Deportivo Cali struggles at home, winning only 20% of their matches and drawing 60% of the time. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 6 goals in 5 matches. Their offensive potential is at 50% and defense at 57%.

Junior Barranquilla has had better success away from home with a 40% win rate, scoring 8 goals and conceding 8 goals in 5 matches. Their offensive and defensive potential is at 43%.

Although Deportivo holds a slight edge defensively, their low home win rate and Junior’s decent away win rate make this match very evenly balanced. The data indicates that the probability of victory is almost equal for both teams, with Deportivo at 34.95% and Junior at 34.41%.

Regarding total goals, statistics suggest a 66.13% probability of over 1.5 goals in the match, while the probability is 89.25% for under 3.5 goals. This implies a relatively tight match can be expected.

Looking at recent matches, Deportivo has struggled to hold their ground at home, as seen in their 2-0 losses to Envigado FC and 1-0 to Patriotas Boyaca. On the other hand, Junior has shown good form away from home with 3-2 and 2-0 wins against Millonarios Bogota and Rionegro, respectively.

In conclusion, this match could be very close, with slightly higher odds for Deportivo to win at home, but Junior may surprise due to their effective away goal-scoring ability. There is a lower likelihood of seeing many goals in this match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Conclusion

Taking into account all the analyses, statistics, and factors at play, this match between Deportivo Cali and Junior Barranquilla appears to be heading towards a low number of goals, potentially less than 3.5. The uncertainty regarding which team will emerge victorious is quite high considering Deportivo’s home form and Junior’s away performance. The safest bet seems to be a draw or a win for Deportivo, in line with their past home performances. A 1-1 scoreline also appears to be a plausible possibility.

Furthermore, the numbers suggest that it is less likely for both teams to score. For bettors looking for a “value bet,” the draw presents an interesting opportunity given the gap between the success probability and the offered odds.

However, it must be remembered that every bet carries risks, and it is essential to bet responsibly. Past performances do not guarantee future results, and every match is subject to unpredictable variables. Good luck!