Tipps Deportivo Pasto Independiente Medellin Primera A 09/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Deportivo Pasto wins the match

1. Deportivo Pasto’s home performance in the last 5 matches is very solid with a 40% win rate and a draw in 60% of cases. In comparison, Independiente Medellin has not won any of their last 5 away matches, but they have drawn in 80% of cases.

2. Deportivo Pasto’s offensive potential is lower than Independiente Medellin’s (43% vs. 64%), but Deportivo Pasto’s defensive potential is significantly higher (14% vs. 43%). These numbers highlight Deportivo Pasto’s strong defense, which could give them an advantage by limiting Independiente Medellin’s scoring.

3. The odds also indicate a high probability of success (71.98%) for the match to end in a draw or with a Deportivo Pasto win. This confirms the first two points and strengthens the prediction.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. General Performance Analysis: Over their last 5 home and away matches respectively, Deportivo Pasto and Independiente Medellin have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games, with Deportivo Pasto scoring 8 goals and conceding 11, and Independiente Medellin scoring 6 and conceding 7.

2. Conversion Rates: Deportivo Pasto and Independiente Medellin also have relatively low offensive and defensive conversion rates. Deportivo Pasto has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 14%. On the other hand, Independiente Medellin has an offensive potential of 64% and a defensive potential of 43%. These statistics suggest that it is unlikely for many goals to be scored in the match.

3. Betting Statistics: The betting statistics also suggest a low-scoring match, with odds of 1.57 for under 2.5 goals in the match. Additionally, there is an 87.91% probability for under 3.5 goals in the match, further supporting the idea of a low-scoring game.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The recent performances of both teams show that they have a strong offensive potential. Deportivo Pasto has scored 8 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Independiente Medellin has scored 6 goals in their last 5 away matches. This indicates that there is a strong possibility of both teams scoring during this match.

2. Independiente Medellin has a strong defensive potential of 43%. This suggests that there is a high likelihood of them conceding goals, especially when playing away. Additionally, in their last 5 away matches, they have not won any and conceded 7 goals. This further increases the probability of Deportivo Pasto scoring during the match.

3. The home match history of Deportivo Pasto shows that they tend to concede goals, with 11 goals conceded in their last 5 home matches. Considering that Independiente Medellin has an offensive potential of 64%, it is very likely that they will manage to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Independiente Medellin

1. Home and Away Match History: Deportivo Pasto tends to draw in 60% of cases when playing at home. Similarly, Independiente Medellin also draws in 80% of cases when playing away. These statistics strongly suggest the possibility of a draw.

2. Goal Averages: Deportivo Pasto has a goal average of 1.2 scored per home match, while Independiente Medellin has an average of 1.8 goals scored per away match. Additionally, both teams have fairly similar goals conceded averages (1.2 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.1 for Independiente Medellin), which also suggests the possibility of a draw.

3. Overall Match Predictions: A statistical prediction for the match placed the draw at a success probability of 32.97%. Furthermore, both teams have a relatively high probability of scoring during the match (57.69%). By combining these predictions, it is reasoned that the match could end in a 1-1 scoreline.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Deportivo Pasto has an average home form with 40% of wins and 60% of draws, scoring 8 goals and conceding 11. On the other hand, Independiente Medellin is weaker away from home with no wins and 80% of draws, scoring 6 goals and conceding 7.
Offensively, Deportivo Pasto scores an average of 1.2 goals per match at home compared to Independiente Medellin, who scores more (an average of 1.8 goals) in their last five away matches.
Defensively, Deportivo Pasto is quite solid at home, conceding only 0.4 goals per match, while Independiente Medellin concedes an average of 1.2 goals away from home.
It’s worth noting that Deportivo Pasto is slightly favored with a 39.01% probability of winning, followed by a draw at 32.97%, and Independiente Medellin’s less likely victory at 28.02%.
According to the statistics, a match with fewer than 3.5 goals (87.91% probability) seems to be the most plausible scenario.
Ultimately, both teams have a 57.69% probability of scoring during the match, indicating a certain offensive dynamic to the encounter.

The potential number of goals

Deportivo Pasto wins 40% of their home matches, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and a solid defense that concedes only 0.4 goals per match. However, their recent matches show a reverse trend, with a weakened defense that has conceded 11 goals in 5 matches.

Independiente Medellin, when playing away, has not won a recent match but has managed to secure a draw in 80% of cases. Their productive attack averages 1.8 goals per match, but the defense lets in 1.2 goals per match. This trend is also reflected in their last 5 matches.

Regarding the prediction, Deportivo Pasto has a 39.01% chance of winning, compared to 28.02% for Independiente Medellin. A draw also seems likely with a probability of 32.97%. Due to the superior attacking potential of Independiente Medellin, it is likely that both teams will score (57.69% probability).

In terms of the number of goals, there is a 71.98% probability for over 1.5 goals and 87.91% for under 3.5 goals. A safe forecast, with 100.55% chance, is to see less than 4.5 goals.

In conclusion, expect a match where both teams can score, but with probably fewer than 3.5 total goals. The odds of winning are slightly tilted in favor of Deportivo Pasto, but the match could very well end in a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the analysis of previous matches, performance statistics, offensive and defensive potential, and sports betting odds, it seems that Deportivo Pasto has slight chances of winning against Independiente Medellin. However, a draw is also a strong possibility. One can expect a very balanced battle, where each team can score, but most likely with less than 3.5 total goals. According to sports betting odds, a victory for Deportivo Pasto or a draw seems to be the safest bet. Those looking for high-value bets may consider wagering on over 2.5 goals in the match, given both teams’ propensity to score and concede goals. Finally, for those wishing to bet on the exact score, a 1-1 score appears to be a reasonable possibility.