Tipps Emelec Cumbayá Liga Pro 14/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Emelec wins the match

1. Emelec has a 80.41% probability of winning, providing a statistically secure margin for this bet. Furthermore, their average home score is higher than Cumbayá’s away score, further enhancing this probability.
2. In their last 5 matches, Cumbayá has never won away and has a 0% win rate. Additionally, their offensive potential away from home is weak (21%) compared to Emelec’s defensive potential at home (14%).
3. Upon analyzing recent matches, it is evident that Emelec has a strong defense, having only conceded 4 goals in 5 home matches. Moreover, Cumbayá has only scored one goal in their last 5 away matches, suggesting they may struggle to overcome Emelec’s defense.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Emelec has a home goal scoring average of 1 goal per match, while Cumbayá has an away goal scoring average of 0.6 goals, resulting in a combined average of 1.6 goals per match, which is below 2.5 goals.

2. In Emelec’s last five home matches, three have had less than 2.5 goals. Similarly, in Cumbayá’s last five away matches, all have had less than 2.5 goals.

3. Defensive statistics also support a low-scoring match. Emelec concedes an average of 0.4 goals per home match, while Cumbayá concedes an average of 1.4 goals in away matches, for a combined average of only 1.8 goals, which is also below 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Cumbayá’s offensive potential away from home is quite low (21%), indicating that they struggle to score goals when playing away.
2. Emelec, when playing at home, has a defensive potential of 14%, meaning they concede very few goals, reinforcing the idea that the opposing team may not score.
3. Cumbayá’s recent away matches show a trend where they score very rarely, with 0 goals in 4 out of the last 5 matches. This trend suggests that Cumbayá may struggle to score in the match against Emelec.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Emelec wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Emelec 1-0 Cumbayá

1. Emelec has won in 40% of their last home matches and their offensive potential at home is 36%. Furthermore, they score an average of 1 goal per home match, suggesting a strong possibility that Emelec will score at least one goal in this match.

2. On the other hand, Cumbayá has not won any of their last 5 away matches and has a relatively high defensive potential at 50%. Similarly, Cumbayá has only scored one goal in their last 5 away matches, indicating a potential lack of offensive effectiveness away from home.

3. According to the odds, the most likely scenario is that both teams will not score with a success probability of 52.58%. This aligns with the previous statistics and favors the exact score of 1-0 for Emelec.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Emelec, at home, wins 40% of its matches. Cumbayá, away, has not won yet. Cumbayá scores 0.6 goals per away match and concedes 1.4. Emelec’s home offense is more effective with an average of 1 goal scored per match. Emelec’s defense is solid at home, conceding only 0.4 goals on average.

The forecast leans towards an advantage for Emelec with a probability of 80.41%. Betting on Emelec to win or for the match to end in a draw gives a high success probability of 95.36%.

Regarding the number of goals, “over 1.5 goals” appears promising with a success chance of 83.51%.

An important fact, Cumbayá has been ineffective in its recent away matches, with results like 3-0 against Aucas and 3-0 against Independiente del Valle.

In summary, there seems to be a higher likelihood of an Emelec victory with a game featuring over 1.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

Emelec, in their last 5 home matches, have shown some solidity with a 40% win rate and have kept a clean sheet on multiple occasions. They have scored 4 goals and conceded the same number.
Cumbayá, in their last 5 outings, have not won a single match. With only 1 goal scored and 4 conceded, their offensive efficiency is low.
Emelec’s offensive potential at home stands at 36% and their defensive potential is at 14%. For Cumbayá away from home, these numbers are 21% and 50% respectively.
The probability of a victory for Emelec is very high, with an 80.41% chance at odds of 1.30. A draw has a 14.95% probability at odds of 5.00. The least likely scenario is a Cumbayá win, with just a 4.64% chance and tempting odds of 9.00.
The bet “Over 1.5 goals” seems secure with a probability of 83.51% at odds of 1.20. On the other hand, a “Draw or Cumbayá win” has only a 19.59% chance at odds of 3.30.
Finally, the match history reveals strong defenses for Emelec and offensive shortcomings for Cumbayá, reinforcing the idea of a low-scoring match with a likely victory for Emelec.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the statistical probability and recent performances point towards Emelec’s dominance in the upcoming match. A victory for Emelec appears to be the most likely scenario, with a high success probability of 80.41%. Additionally, predicting a low-scoring match, with less than 2.5 goals, seems equally plausible given Emelec’s defensive track record and Cumbayá’s offensive issues. Based on this data, bettors could potentially achieve a favorable return and minimize risks by betting on an Emelec win and less than 2.5 goals in the match. It is important to remember, however, that in sports betting, while statistics and past data can help formulate predictions, they do not guarantee precise outcomes. It is crucial to bet responsibly and within one’s own financial limits.