Tipps Emelec El Nacional Liga Pro 19/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Emelec wins the match.

1. The high percentage for a draw or Emelec’s victory: There is an 80.75% probability that the match will end either in a draw or with Emelec winning. This is a significant factor suggesting that this scenario is very likely.

2. Emelec’s recent performances at home: In their last 5 home matches, Emelec has won once and drawn twice, indicating they have a strong home record. Despite scoring few goals, their defense seems quite solid.

3. El Nacional’s away performances: El Nacional’s last five away matches show they mostly win, but they have also drawn and lost once, suggesting they are not invincible on the road.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Based on Emelec’s recent home match history, they have had a poor offensive performance, scoring only 3 goals in 5 matches, which limits the total number of goals that could be scored in the match.

2. El Nacional, despite having a better offensive performance away, also has a moderately solid defense, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. This shows they are capable of limiting the number of goals Emelec could score.

3. While El Nacional’s offensive potential is higher than Emelec’s, their average away performance is 1 goal per match. Combined with Emelec’s poor offensive output, this strongly suggests the match will end with fewer than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Emelec’s offensive potential at home is relatively low at only 21%, coupled with the fact that they have only scored 3 goals in five home matches.

2. El Nacional, although possessing a higher offensive potential than Emelec, has a quite high defense rate of 64% away from home. This, along with the fact that they have conceded 7 goals in five away matches, suggests they could prevent Emelec from scoring.

3. Emelec’s previous home matches show their struggle to score, with 3 out of 5 matches where they failed to score. It is likely that this scenario will repeat itself.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“El Nacional wins the match”

Bet on the exact result

Emelec 1-1 El Nacional

1. The statistics of Emelec’s recent home matches and El Nacional’s away matches show a tendency for draws, indicating that both teams have fairly balanced strengths, making a 1-1 score likely.
2. El Nacional has higher offensive and defensive potential than Emelec, especially away. However, Emelec’s relatively low home score (0.6 goals/match) confirms that a low-scoring match is highly probable, with a 1-1 result being the most likely outcome in such matches.
3. The percentiles for the match also favor a draw or Emelec’s victory, leaning towards a draw result. Moreover, the probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match is quite high, suggesting a low-scoring game. A 1-1 score is the most probable outcome in a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Emelec has only won 20% of their last 5 home matches and drew 40% of the time. Only 3 goals have been scored by Emelec and 4 goals have been conceded. Emelec averages 0.6 goals scored at home and 1.2 conceded, giving them an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 43%.

El Nacional has won 60% of their last 5 away matches and drawn 20% of the time. El Nacional has scored a total of 6 goals and conceded 7 goals. Away from home, El Nacional averages 1 goal scored per match and 1.8 conceded. Offensive potential at 36% and defensive potential at 64%.

For Emelec, the probability of winning the match is 51.87% with odds of 1.83. The probability of a draw is 28.88% with odds of 3.50. El Nacional has a 19.25% probability of winning with odds of 4.00.

Punters who favor a draw or Emelec winning have an 80.75% probability of winning at odds of 1.18. Those who choose a draw or El Nacional winning have a 48.13% chance of success at odds of 1.90.

Our analysis predicts Under 3.5 goals in the match with a success probability of 81.82% at odds of 1.25.

In conclusion, a close match is expected. The statistics suggest a low probability of a high number of goals.

The potential number of goals

The match between Emelec and El Nacional promises to be intense. At home, Emelec has been delivering poor results. They only win 20% of their recent matches and draw 40% of the time. With just 3 goals scored, their attack seems dormant. Having conceded 4 goals, their defense remains porous.

It’s the opposite for El Nacional, who has a 60% away win rate. They score more frequently, with 6 goals to their name, but also concede a total of 7 goals.

Performance analysis indicates an offensive potential of 21% for Emelec and a defensive potential of 43%. El Nacional has a higher offensive potential, at 36%, while their defensive potential is at 64%.

In terms of probabilities, Emelec has a 51.87% chance of winning the match, while El Nacional has only a 19.25% chance of victory. A draw seems less likely, with a probability of 28.88%.

Based on trends, there is a 71.12% chance of seeing a match with over 1.5 goals, but the success rate drops to 47.59% for over 2.5 goals. It’s also highly likely (81.82%) to see a match with under 3.5 goals.

Interestingly, both teams have almost equal probabilities of scoring during the match: 50.8% for yes, 49.2% for no.

Given these data, a balanced match is expected, although the advantage seems to be with Emelec at home despite their recent underperformances.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, data analysis leads us to consider a balanced match between Emelec and El Nacional. The scale slightly tips in favor of Emelec due to their home performance, despite a relatively low offensive output. However, El Nacional’s higher potential – both in attack and defense – could lead to an upset. The number of goals is expected to be low, with a high probability of a total of fewer than 2.5 goals. Bettors may want to consider a bet on an Emelec win or a draw, given the current probabilities. Similarly, a 1-1 exact score seems to be the most likely scenario based on current trends. As always, when placing bets, it is essential to consider various variables and only wager what one is willing to lose.