Tipps Empoli Monza Serie A 17/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Monza has not won a single away match in their last 5 games while Empoli has shown solid form at home, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Considering that Empoli’s offensive and defensive potential is superior to that of Monza, the most probable prediction would be: Empoli wins the match or a draw.

1. Recent performance:
Empoli has won 3 out of their last 5 home matches while Monza has not won any of their last 5 away matches. This indicates that Empoli is in better form and is more likely to win or at least not lose.

2. Defensive and offensive statistics:
Empoli has scored 6 goals in their last 5 home matches, conceding 7. On the other hand, Monza has only scored 2 goals in their last 5 away matches and conceded 3. This shows that Empoli has a better offensive and defensive performance than Monza.

3. Bookmakers’ odds:
Bookmakers estimate that Empoli has a 72.25% chance of winning or drawing. This is a strong argument in favor of this prediction as odds are determined by experts who take into account many factors.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Goal statistics: Looking at the last 5 matches, Empoli has scored an average of 0.6 goals per home match and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. As for Monza, in their last 5 away games, the team has scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. These statistics suggest that a match between these two teams is likely to have less than 2.5 goals.

2. Recent performances: In their last 5 respective matches, Empoli has won 60% of the time, while Monza has not won a single game on the road. Furthermore, Monza has only managed to score 2 goals in 5 matches. In other words, both teams are showing goal-scoring performances that lean towards a total of less than 2.5 goals.

3. Offensive and defensive potential: Empoli has an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 43%, while Monza has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 57%. The weakness in attack combined with the defensive solidity of these two teams suggests a low number of goals in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent performances: Observing the recent home performances of Empoli and Monza away, it can be seen that in the vast majority of cases, both teams managed to score goals.

2. Defensive statistics: Both teams tend to concede goals. Empoli concedes an average of 1.2 goals per home match, while Monza concedes an average of 1.6 goals per away match. This means that the defenses of both teams are not watertight and they are likely to concede goals.

3. Probability of success: The probability of both teams scoring is 54.45% with odds of 1.80. This is a prediction that has more than a 50% chance of happening, making it statistically favorable.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Empoli wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Empoli 1-1 Monza

1. Recent statistics: In their respective last 5 matches, Empoli has shown a tendency to win at home but also to concede goals to the opponent. On the other hand, Monza has displayed a weak performance away, with a significant tendency for draws and a low ability to score goals. These statistics point towards a 1-1 scoreline.

2. Draw probabilities: The win probabilities for Empoli (33.51%) and Monza (27.75%) are relatively low compared to the draw probability (38.74%), suggesting that the match could end in a draw.

3. Offensive and defensive potentials: The offensive and defensive potentials of both teams are quite balanced, with a slight edge for Empoli at home and Monza away. This means that both teams have the ability to score goals but also to concede, which could lead to a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Empoli has shown strength at home. In 5 matches, they win 60% of the time, with an average of 0.6 goals scored per match. However, their defense is a bit shaky, conceding an average of 1.2 goals.

On the other hand, Monza has not won a single game away from home in the last 5 matches. They have drawn 40% of the time, scoring an average of 0.8 goals per match and conceding 1.6 goals.

The prediction leans towards a draw (38.74%) or an Empoli win (33.51%). The odds are 3.30 for a draw and 2.50 for an Empoli victory.

There is a 72.77% chance that the match will end with more than 1.5 goals scored (odds of 1.36). Furthermore, there is a 54.45% chance that both teams will score at least one goal (odds of 1.80).

These statistics suggest a close match but Empoli is more likely to win, or at least avoid defeat against Monza.

The potential number of goals

Empoli, at home, has shown a strong performance with a 60% win rate in the last 5 matches. They have scored 6 goals, averaging 0.6 goals per match, indicating an offensive potential of 21%. However, their defense leaves something to be desired, conceding 7 goals and displaying a defensive potential of 43%.

Monza, away from home, has not won recently and has a 40% draw rate. With only 2 goals scored and an average of 0.8 goals per match, the offensive potential is low at 29%. However, they have managed to limit the damage by conceding only 3 goals, 1.6 per match on average, for a defensive potential of 57%.

The likelihood probabilities offer interesting opportunities. “Under 1.5 goals in the match” is priced at 3.20, while “Over 1.5 goals” has a high probability of 72.77% at odds of 1.36. Another notable bet: “under 4.5 goals in the match” is almost certain with a 97.38% success rate and odds of 1.09.

The question of whether both teams will score is rather suspenseful. The probability is 54.45% for “yes” with odds of 1.80, compared to 45.55% for “no” at odds of 1.98.

Overall, the probability of victory favors Empoli with 33.51% against 27.75% for Monza. The most likely outcome seems to be a draw with a 38.74% chance.

These numbers indicate a fairly balanced match, with a slight edge for Empoli. However, there is a good chance that this will be a low-scoring game.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of statistics and odds for the match between Empoli and Monza suggests that the most likely scenario would be a draw or a victory for Empoli. Empoli’s strong home performance combined with Monza’s weak away performance supports this hypothesis. It also seems probable that the total number of goals scored will be under 2.5, and both teams are likely to score at least one goal each. The probable value bet being “draw or Empoli win the match”. We predict that the potential exact score could be 1-1. As always, it is important to bet responsibly and consider this information only as part of an overall betting strategy.