Tipps Estonia Azerbaijan UEFA Nations League 11/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Estonia or draw.

1. The “Estonia or draw” bet has a success probability of 65.22%, which is higher than Azerbaijan’s winning probability alone (34.78%).
2. Estonia has relatively strong home performances, winning in 20% of cases and drawing in 60% of cases. Additionally, in their last home game against the same opponent, Estonia defeated Azerbaijan.
3. In their last 5 away games, Azerbaijan has only won 20% of the time and has not drawn any matches. Their defensive potential away stands at 79%, although higher than Estonia’s, does not guarantee a win in this match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. In their respective last 5 matches, Estonia and Azerbaijan have shown a weak offensive potential, with 1 goal and 1.2 goals scored on average per match. This lack of offensive efficiency from both teams increases the probability of a match with less than 2.5 goals.
2. Defensive statistics indicate that Estonia and Azerbaijan each concede on average more than 2 goals per match. However, Estonia’s defensive performance significantly improves at home (1.4 goals conceded on average per match) and Azerbaijan’s away performance (2 goals conceded on average per match) remains moderate. These elements point to generally well-controlled matches with few goals.
3. The probabilities of success for the bet “Under 2.5 goals in the match” are reinforced by the analysis of the recent results of both teams: in the last 5 home matches of Estonia and 5 last away matches of Azerbaijan, the majority ended with less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Estonia has a weak offensive performance with an average of 1 goal scored per home match, and has an offensive potential of only 36%. Boosted by the low percentage of home wins, it is likely that Estonia will not score in this match.

2. The Azerbaijan team also has a low offensive potential of 43% when playing away, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per match. Additionally, in its last 5 away matches, it has only won 20% of the time.

3. In the last five encounters between these two teams, Azerbaijan has only scored once in its visit to Estonia. There is therefore a strong historical trend towards matches where one of the two teams does not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Estonia 1-1 Azerbaijan

1. Both teams display a weak offensive performance at home and away, with an average of less than two goals per match. Estonia has a 36% offensive potential while Azerbaijan has a 43% offensive potential, indicating that both teams are likely to score a goal each.

2. Statistics suggest a slightly higher probability of a draw (32.07%) than an Estonia win (33.15%). Additionally, Estonia has drawn in 60% of their last 5 home matches.

3. Both teams have relatively high defensive potentials, with Estonia at 71% and Azerbaijan at 79%. This suggests that both teams might be capable of holding the opponent to just one goal.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Estonia struggles to win at home, with only a 20% recent win rate. They more often draw, at 60%. In comparison, Azerbaijan doesn’t perform much better away, also with a 20% win rate.

Estonia has scored 5 goals in 5 matches, an average of 1 goal per match. They have conceded 7, an average of 2 goals per match. Offensive potential at 36%, but defensively weak at 71%.

Azerbaijan isn’t much better, averaging 1.2 goals per match, but conceding even more at 2.2 goals per match. Their offensive and defensive potential is 43% and 79% respectively.

In this match, Estonia has a 33.15% chance of winning, and Azerbaijan 34.78%. A draw seems likely at 32.07%.

In terms of goals, there’s a 71.2% chance of there being over 1.5 goals. The most likely scenario is less than 3.5 goals in the match, with an 88.04% probability.

It’s worth noting that in their last meeting, Azerbaijan beat Estonia 2-0 away.

A safe bet could be that fewer than 3.5 goals will be scored in this match. A riskier bet could be to bet on an Azerbaijan victory, considering their performance in the last match.

The potential number of goals

Estonia, at home, has a mixed record with a 20% win rate and a 60% draw rate. Offensively, they have managed to score 5 goals, but defensively, they have allowed 7 goals. Their estimated offensive capability of 36% struggles against a defense that is struggling with a 71% score.

Azerbaijan, away from home, shows an efficiency of 20% in terms of wins, but no draws have been observed. Despite an offensive output of 43%, the team faces a weak defense that has conceded 8 goals, while only scoring 3.

It’s safe to say that this matchup looks tight. The probabilities slightly favor Azerbaijan with a 34.78% chance of winning, compared to 33.15% for Estonia. A draw remains a possibility with a 32.07% chance.

Looking at the goals, more than 1.5 goals in the match seems like a safe bet, with a probability of 71.2%. For the more daring, a bet on over 2.5 goals has a 43.48% chance of success.

In terms of respective performances, it is remembered that Estonia lost to Azerbaijan in their last home meeting. As for Azerbaijan, they have recently suffered heavy defeats away, notably against Belgium and Sweden.

Considering these elements, a bet on a match with less than 3.5 goals seems reasonable, with an 88.04% chance of success. Regarding the match outcome, a draw or an Azerbaijan win has a slightly higher probability of success at 66.85%.

In conclusion, a defensive match with less than 2.5 goals scored appears to be the most likely scenario. All bets involve risks, but thorough analysis can provide a considerable advantage.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on statistics, recent team performances, and probabilities, the Estonia vs Azerbaijan match seems highly likely to end in a draw or a narrow victory margin. Both teams are showing a weak offensive potential, increasing the likelihood of a match with under 2.5 goals.

The “Estonia or draw” bet offers solid odds, with a success probability of 65.22%. Additionally, betting on under 2.5 goals being scored during the match seems like a reliable option given the teams’ low attacking potential.

It could also be interesting to bet on an exact score of 1-1, although it is a riskier bet. The uncertainty surrounding the match outcome reinforces the idea that a draw is a value bet, offering an intriguing probability of 32.07%.

Lastly, it is unlikely that both teams will score based on their recent weak offensive performances, so a bet on “No” to this question could provide a good return on investment.

It is important to note that all predictions involve a certain degree of risk, and subsequent results may vary depending on a multitude of factors not considered in this analysis. Therefore, all bets should be placed responsibly.