Tipps Estrela Boavista Primeira Liga 16/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Estrela wins the match”

1. Recent Performance: At home in their last 5 matches, Estrela has a 60% win rate, compared to Boavista’s 20% win rate in their away matches. This means Estrela is three times more likely to win than Boavista based on their recent performances.

2. Defensive and Offensive Statistics: At home, Estrela has an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 43%, while Boavista has an offensive potential of only 14% and a defensive potential of 50% in their away matches. This indicates that Estrela is more likely to score goals and less likely to concede against Boavista.

3. Prediction Success Probabilities: Based on the provided information, the prediction “Estrela wins the match” has a success probability of 57.89%. This is the highest probability among all options. Therefore, it is statistically wiser to bet on Estrela winning.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The two teams have a low offensive conversion rate, with an average of 0.6 goals per game for Estrela and 0.4 for Boavista in their respective last 5 matches. This increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

2. Looking at their previous defensive performances, Estrela and Boavista have been conceding an average of 1.2 and 1.4 goals per game respectively. These statistics indicate that both teams have solid defenses, which could lead to a match with less than 2.5 goals.

3. Finally, based on the statistics and odds, the match has a success probability of 75.26% for under 3.5 goals. This suggests that bookmakers also expect a low-scoring game. This trend is supported by the odds for under 2.5 goals in the match being 1.55, which is below the average odds, indicating a high likelihood of a low-scoring game.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Defensive performance: Both teams have shown strong defensive performance, conceding an average of 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match respectively in their last 5 matches. They are capable of limiting the opposing team’s chances.

2. Low offensive potential: Statistics reveal a low offensive potential for both teams, with Estrela and Boavista scoring an average of 0.6 and 0.4 goals per match respectively in their last 5 matches.

3. Score history: In their recent matches, each team has had instances where they failed to score in a match. For example, in their last home matches, Estrela failed to score in 2 out of 5 matches and Boavista failed to score away in 3 out of 5 matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Fewer than 2.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

Estrela 1-0 Boavista

1. Estrela’s offensive potential is superior to that of Boavista with 21% compared to 14% respectively. This, combined with the fact that Boavista has a weaker defense (50% defensive potential compared to 43% for Estrela), suggests that Estrela has a better chance of scoring.

2. The high likelihood that the match will end with Under 1.5 goals (success probability: 2.75) reinforces the assumption of a final score of 1-0.

3. Recent match statistics show that Estrela has won a home victory in 60% of cases and managed to keep a clean sheet in two of those matches. In contrast, Boavista has a poor away performance with only one victory in 5 matches and tends to concede goals (5 goals conceded in 5 matches).

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Estrela has been in good form at home, winning 60% and drawing 40% of their last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded the same amount.

On the other hand, Boavista has struggled away from home, only winning 20% of their last 5 games, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5.

In terms of potential, Estrela averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per home match. As for Boavista, they score 0.4 goals and concede 1.4 goals per away match.

The probabilities favor Estrela with a 57.89% chance of success, with odds at 2.10. Boavista has only a 19.47% chance of winning with odds of 3.75. The draw has a 22.63% probability with odds of 3.20.

As for goals, fewer than 1.5 goals have the highest odds at 2.75. However, more than 1.5 goals are the most probable outcome with a 73.68% success rate and odds of 1.47.

There is a 48.42% chance that both teams will score, with odds of 2.05. And a 51.58% chance that both teams will not score, with odds of 1.72.

So, based on the statistics and odds, Estrela has a slight edge for this match. However, football always remains unpredictable.

The potential number of goals

Estrela has a strong home performance with a 60% win rate. At the same time, they have an offensive potential of 21% and score an average of 0.6 goals per match. However, their defense is lacking with a 43% potential and conceding 1.2 goals per match.

On the other hand, Boavista is not performing well away from home at all with only a 20% win rate. They struggle in attack with only 0.4 goals per match and an offensive potential of 14%. Their defense is also weak, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match and with a 50% defensive potential.

According to the odds, Estrela has a 57.89% chance of winning the match with odds of 2.10. The probabilities of a draw are 22.63% with odds of 3.20, and Boavista has only a 19.47% chance of winning the match.

Regarding goals, the odds indicate that less than 1.5 goals in the match is at 2.75, but more than 1.5 goals have a higher probability of 73.68% with odds of 1.47.

The outcome of this match seems to favor Estrela given their home performance and Boavista’s away performance. The numbers also suggest a low probability of many goals in the match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on recent performances, defensive and offensive statistics, the likelihood of the prediction being correct, and the odds offered, Estrela appears to be the favorite team to win this match against Boavista. An exact score of 1-0 in favor of Estrela seems to be an intriguing bet. Furthermore, a total of under 2.5 goals is also probable considering both teams’ limited offensive potential and solid defensive performances. It is also statistically less likely that both teams will score in this match. For those seeking a value bet, wagering on under 2.5 goals in the match could present an interesting opportunity. However, it is important to remember that football can be unpredictable and nothing is guaranteed. Ultimately, each bettor must assess and decide for themselves based on their own analysis and risk tolerance.