Tipps Estrela Rio Ave Primeira Liga 14/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Estrela wins the match.

1. The percentage of Estrela’s wins or draws at home in their last 5 matches is 80%, which is higher than Rio Ave’s win percentage in their last 5 away matches (0%).

2. In terms of offensive and defensive potential, Estrela has shown better performances at home than Rio Ave away. Estrela has an offensive potential of 43% and defensive potential of 57% compared to Rio Ave’s 29% and 7% respectively.

3. The probability of success for the prediction “Draw or Estrela wins the match” is the highest among all options, at 70.16%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The recent performance statistics of both teams show that they have a relatively low goal average. Estrela has scored an average of 1.2 goals per home match, while Rio Ave has scored 0.8 goals per away match, resulting in a total average of 2 goals per match, which is below the 2.5 goal mark.

2. Rio Ave has demonstrated a strong defense in away matches, conceding an average of only 0.2 goals per match. This could pose a challenge for Estrela’s team in surpassing the 2.5 goal mark.

3. Upon examining the last five matches of each team, in most cases, the total goals did not exceed 2.5. For instance, in four out of Rio Ave’s last five away matches, the total goals were 1 or less. Similarly, in three out of Estrela’s last five home matches, the total goals were 2 or less.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent performance statistics for Estrela show a trend of scoring goals at home. In fact, they have scored in each of their last 5 home matches, indicating a strong offensive potential.
2. Rio Ave, despite their poor away win record, managed to score in two of their last five away matches. This means they have the ability to score even in unfavorable conditions.
3. The statistical probability of both teams scoring is relatively high at 51.83%. This means that, considering all variables, it is more likely that both teams will score during the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Estrela 1-1 Rio Ave

1. The performance of both teams suggests a balanced outcome: Estrela achieves a 40% home win rate and 40% draw rate, while Rio Ave obtains 80% draws away. Combined, this leads to a high probability of a draw.

2. Based on the recent scoring history of both teams, a 1-1 score seems reasonable. Estrela has an average offensive performance of 1.2 goals per home match and Rio Ave scores an average of 0.8 goals away. Factoring in their defensive performance (1.6 goals conceded on average for Estrela and 0.2 for Rio Ave), the prediction leans towards a match where both teams score, with a total of 2 goals.

3. Digging deeper and looking at the odds, the 1-1 prediction also receives support. The odds indicate that both teams are likely to score (51.83% probability) and that there will probably be less than 2.5 goals during the match (odds of 1.57). Therefore, a 1-1 score aligns perfectly with these forecasts.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Estrela shows average form at home, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. With 9 goals scored and 13 goals conceded, their defense looks fragile.
On the other hand, Rio Ave struggles away from home. No wins in the last 5 matches, but 4 draws, indicating a solid defense with only 2 goals conceded.
The probability of Estrela winning the match is 38.22%, slightly higher than Rio Ave’s 29.84%. A draw, with a probability of 31.94%, also seems plausible.
Offensively, Estrela has been more efficient with an average of 1.2 goals per match compared to Rio Ave’s 0.8.
Based on this data, the most likely scenario would be a match with fewer than 3.5 goals, with a high probability of 89.01%. The chances of both teams scoring are also quite balanced, with a probability of 51.83%.
Combine this with the fact that Estrela is in better form at home than away, it seems that the safest bet would be “Draw or Estrela wins the match” with a success probability of 70.16%.

The potential number of goals

In its last 5 home matches, Estrela won and drew 40% of the time, scoring a total of 9 goals. Its offensive game is weaker than its defensive game. On the other hand, Rio Ave hasn’t won its last 5 games, but has drawn 80% of the time. It has scored fewer goals but its defense is solid.

Estrela’s offensive potential is 43%, compared to 29% for Rio Ave. Defensively, Estrela has a score of 57% while Rio Ave is at 7%.

Based on the probabilities, the most likely scenario would be a draw or a victory for Estrela. This scenario has a 70.16% chance of success. Rio Ave could surprise, but their probability of winning is lower at 29.84%.

In terms of goals, it is likely that there will be more than 1.5 goals in the match with a probability of 69.63%. However, the number of goals could remain below 3.5 with a probability rate of 89.01%.

Finally, both teams have almost equal chances of scoring: 51.83% for Estrela and 48.17% for Rio Ave.

In conclusion, the match could be competitive, but the advantage seems to be on Estrela’s side.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the analysis of predictions and recent team performances, Estrela appears to have a significant advantage at home compared to Rio Ave away from home. The strong offensive and defensive potential of Estrela, with 43% and 57% respectively, and their 80% win or draw rate in their last series of home matches, increase their chances of coming out as winners or at least securing a draw.

However, it is also likely that the total number of goals scored will be under 2.5, based on the offensive potential of both teams averaging 2 goals per match combined, and Rio Ave’s solid defense away from home.

Regarding the exact score, a 1-1 draw is probable considering Rio Ave’s strong defense away from home and Estrela’s relatively low goal-scoring record at home.

It is also likely that both teams will score in this match, with Estrela showing a tendency to score at home and Rio Ave managing to score in two of their last five away matches.

In summary, for bettors, “Draw or Estrela to win the match” seems to be the safest option to consider before kick-off. However, it is important to always remember that while statistics and analysis of past performances can provide some guidance, the outcome of a football match can be unpredictable and subject to many other unknown and unforeseeable factors. Betting should always be practiced with caution and responsibility.