Tipps Faroe Islands FYR Macedonia UEFA Nations League 07/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

My prediction is “Draw or North Macedonia wins the match”.

1. Over their last 5 home matches, the Faroe Islands have a high probability of drawing (80% of cases) rather than winning (20% of cases). This low home win rate makes the prediction “Draw or North Macedonia wins the match” more likely.

2. Despite North Macedonia not winning any away matches in their last 5 games, the probability of them winning this match is higher on the betting platform (47.72%) than the Faroe Islands (21.83%). Furthermore, the probability of the prediction “Draw or North Macedonia wins the match” is 78.17%, which is much higher than the other option.

3. The statistics for goals scored and conceded per match for both teams are not very favorable, averaging less than one goal per game. This reinforces the idea that it is more likely for the match to end in a draw or with a narrow victory for North Macedonia, considering the offensive and defensive potential highlighted.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics from previous matches show a trend of low scores. The Faroe Islands have an average of 0.8 goals per match at home while North Macedonia has an average of 0.6 goals per match away. The sum of these two averages is less than 2.5, indicating a high probability of a total score under 2.5 for this match.

2. Historically, when these teams have faced each other, they tend to concede more goals than they score. For example, in their last 5 matches, the Faroe Islands conceded 4 goals at home while scoring 3, and North Macedonia conceded 5 goals away while scoring 3. This suggests that defenses will likely dominate this match, thus limiting the total number of goals.

3. The odds for “under 2.5 goals in the match” are 1.68, which is relatively low. Low odds are usually a sign that both bettors and bookmakers expect the event and, in this case, anticipate a low total number of goals. This reinforces the idea that fewer than 2.5 goals will be scored in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The offensive potential of the Faroe Islands at home and North Macedonia away is quite low (29% and 21% respectively), which could reduce the likelihood of both teams scoring during the match.
2. Previous match statistics show that the Faroe Islands have had a low scoring rate at home (only scoring in 3 out of the last 5 matches) while North Macedonia has failed to score in their last 5 away matches.
3. Betting statistics indicate a higher chance (51.27%) of both teams not scoring, which aligns with the weak offensive performances of both teams in their previous matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Faroe Islands 1-1 North Macedonia

1. The Faroe Islands’ tendency to draw in their last 5 home matches (80%): this reflects the competitiveness of the team, especially when playing at home. It is likely that they will defend hard to avoid losing, increasing the probability of a draw.

2. North Macedonia’s low offensive potential in away matches: they have only scored an average of 0.6 goals in their last 5 away matches, highlighting their struggle to score when playing away from home. This could limit the final score.

3. Previous trends of fewer goals in the match: The probability of fewer than 2.5 goals being scored in the match is quite high and most of both teams’ previous matches have ended with a total goal count of less than 3. A 1-1 scoreline aligns with this trend.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Faroe Islands are hard to beat at home, with a 20% win rate and 80% draws in their last 5 matches. The Faroe Islands score few goals, averaging 0.8 goals per match, but only concede 1 goal on average.

On the other hand, North Macedonia struggles away from home with no points in their last 5 away matches. They score few goals (0.6 goals per match) and concede a lot (1.6 goals per match).

A Faroe Islands victory seems unlikely at 21.83%. A draw is more conceivable at 30.46%. However, North Macedonia is the favorite with a 47.72% probability of winning.

As for goals, the most likely scenario is a match with under 2.5 goals (1.68) and even under 1.5 goals (3.00). This reflects the defensive playing style of both teams. More than 3.5 goals seems unlikely at 4.00.

Ultimately, both teams have nearly equal chances of scoring with a 48.73% chance of both teams scoring and a 51.27% chance of at least one team not scoring.

Prediction: Draw or under 2.5 goals in the match.

The potential number of goals

The Faroe Islands have a weak offensive capacity at home, scoring only 0.8 goals per match. Their remarkable defensive ability is shown by conceding only 1 goal per match. The results of their last 5 matches align with these statistics, with only 1 win and 4 losses.

North Macedonia has an even worse record away from home. Having not won a single match in their last 5 games, they have scored 0.6 goals per match and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. This confirms a very low offensive potential of 21% and a poor defense at 57%.

Despite the odds, North Macedonia has a higher probability of winning the match at 47.72% compared to 21.83% for the Faroe Islands. A North Macedonia win would yield odds of 2.05.

The number of goals in the match is expected to be low, with a 76.14% probability of under 3.5 goals, at odds of 1.22. There is a 48.73% chance that both teams will score according to the bookmakers, with odds of 1.90.

In summary, this match is likely to be defensive with few goals, given the offensive capabilities of both teams. Expect a significant chance of a draw or a win for North Macedonia.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering the statistics and previous trends, the Faroe Islands team seems to struggle to maintain defensive solidity at home, giving North Macedonia an opportunity to score despite their poor performance in attack. However, both teams have shown a tendency towards low-scoring results and defensive matches, so the total score of the game could be below 2.5. Additionally, the bet of “under 2.5 goals in the match” appears to be a reasonable value bet given the odds of 1.68. Finally, it is important to note that despite the possibility of a North Macedonia win, a draw remains a plausible outcome.