Tipps FC Juarez Leon Liga MX 20/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Based on the data provided, it seems likely that the match between FC Juarez and Leon will either end in a victory for Leon or a draw. However, the probability of a Leon victory is slightly higher. Therefore, my prediction would be: Leon wins the match.

1. Recent away performances by Leon have not shown a strong winning trend. However, their ability to score regularly and their higher defensive percentage compared to FC Juarez increases the likelihood of them winning or drawing.

2. FC Juarez has a strong tendency to draw at home, with 80% of their matches ending in a draw. This is a sign that they may be able to withstand Leon’s attack, but their low home win rate does not favor their probability of winning.

3. Probability calculations from the algorithm indicate that Leon has a slightly better chance of winning, with a success probability of 37.44% against FC Juarez’s 35.38%. This suggests a slight tilt in favor of Leon due to their previous performances and statistics.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. Goal statistics of both teams: By analyzing the provided data, we can see that FC Juarez has scored an average of 1.6 goals per home match and Leon has scored an average of 1 goal per away match. By adding these averages, we get a total of 2.6 goals per match on average, which exceeds the 2.5 goals threshold.

2. Offensive potential of both teams: FC Juarez has a 57% offensive potential at home, while Leon has a 36% offensive potential away. These strong offensive potentials could lead to a match with multiple goals scored.

3. Probability associated with the event: According to bookmakers, there is a 54.87% probability that more than 2.5 goals will be scored in the match. This is an important consideration to take into account as bookmakers consider multiple factors, including factors we may not have access to, to determine these probabilities.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Both teams have shown a good offensive ability in their recent matches, with FC Juarez averaging 1.6 goals per game and Leon averaging 1 goal per game. This suggests that they both can score during the match.

2. Defensive data also shows vulnerabilities in both teams. FC Juarez concedes an average of 1.2 goals per game, while Leon concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game. These statistics support the idea that both teams could score in this game.

3. The probability rate for both teams to score is quite high according to the bookmaker, at 56.92%. This probability is higher than the probability for both teams not to score, which reinforces the prediction that both teams will score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

FC Juarez 1-1 Leon

1. The statistics of both teams show a tendency not to win their respective matches, with a low home win rate for FC Juarez and no away win rate for Leon. This justifies an expectation of a draw.
2. Both teams tend to have an average of goals scored and conceded close to 1, likely only one goal per match for Leon and a little more for FC Juarez. This supports the idea of a low score on both sides.
3. The probabilities indicate that a draw is a possibility to consider (27.18%), while the probability of both teams scoring is quite high (56.92%). This combination makes a final score of 1-1 plausible.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

FC Juarez has shown a moderate performance at home with only 20% wins and 80% draws in the last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7.

Leon, playing away, has not won any of their last 5 matches and has had 4 draws. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 10.

In terms of gameplay potential, FC Juarez has a better offense at 57%, compared to Leon’s 36%. Defensively, Leon stands at 50% against Juarez’s 43%.

Probabilities indicate a slight advantage for Leon with a 37.44% chance of winning compared to FC Juarez’s 35.38%. A draw is a possible result with a probability of 27.18%.

The safer option seems to be “Draw or Leon to win the match” with a probability of 64.62%.

In terms of goals, “Over 1.5 goals in the match” is very likely at 77.95%. However, “Under 4.5 goals in the match” is the most likely outcome at 89.74%.

The recent history of matches shows a weak performance from Leon away, with many losses and draws. FC Juarez, despite few wins, has managed to score in every match.

In summary, this match will likely be tight with strong chances of seeing only 1 to 4 goals in total.

The potential number of goals

FC Juarez, playing at home, struggles to secure victories with only a 20% success rate and averages 1.6 goals per match. They have an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive potential of 43%. They are more likely (62.56%) to have a draw or win with odds of 1.42.

Leon, playing away, does not win often and only draws in 40% of cases. Their offensive potential is 36% and defensive potential is 50%. A draw or a Leon win has a probability of 64.62% with odds of 1.60.

The probability of both teams scoring is 56.92% and less than 3.5 goals are expected in the match. This goal count has a probability of 71.28% and odds of 1.42.

In conclusion, the match is tight. However, the numbers slightly favor a draw or a Leon win, with a fairly strong chance of both teams scoring.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the match between FC Juarez and Leon is shaping up to be tight and hard to predict with certainty. However, based on the available data and the historical behaviors of both teams, we can suggest some predictions with a certain level of confidence.

Leon’s past away performances and FC Juarez’s tendencies to draw at home, combined with the probabilities calculated by the algorithm, suggest that a safe bet could be a draw or a Leon victory.

Regarding the number of goals, the offensive statistics of both teams suggest that there will be over 2.5 goals during the match. However, for punters looking for a value bet, betting on under 2.5 goals could offer an interesting return. The chances of both teams scoring are quite high, reinforcing the prediction of a match with at least 2.5 goals.

Predicting the exact score is inevitably more uncertain, but considering all this information, a score of 1-1 seems plausible.

These conclusions are based on data and statistical analysis, but it is important to remember that sports betting always involves an element of uncertainty. Punters should always be aware of the risks and never bet more than they can afford to lose.