Tipps FC Nurnberg SC Paderborn 07 2. Bundesliga 19/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Paderborn wins the match.

1. Nuremberg’s recent home performance is not convincing with only a 20% win rate and 60% draws, indicating a struggle to dominate on their own turf.
2. Paderborn shows a better performance in away matches, managing to win 40% of the time and also securing a draw 40% of the time. This suggests a certain mastery in their travels.
3. Offensive and defensive statistics show that Paderborn has a higher attacking potential (57%) compared to Nuremberg (21%). Additionally, Nuremberg’s defensive performance seems to be a weakness with a potential of 93% against 79% for Paderborn. This could give Paderborn an advantage in scoring goals and resisting Nuremberg’s attacks.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Nuremberg’s offensive potential at home is quite low (21%). They score an average of only 0.6 goals per home match, which means they generally do not score more than one goal when playing at home. So, their contribution to the total number of goals during the match is likely to be low.

2. Despite their higher offensive potential, Paderborn averages 1.6 goals per away match, which is still far from pushing the total goals to over 2.5 in a single match.

3. Taking into account all the odds for this match, the odds for under 2.5 goals are 2.40, indicating a high likelihood that the total goals will be fewer than 2.5. This aligns with the past performances of both teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Both teams have a fairly good ability to score at home and away respectively, with Nuremberg scoring 0.6 goals per match at home and Paderborn scoring 1.6 goals per match away.

2. Considering their defenses, Nuremberg concedes an average of 2.6 goals per match at home while Paderborn concedes an average of 2.2 goals away, indicating that both defenses tend to give away goals.

3. Historical data of both teams’ results show a tendency for both teams to score. For instance, in Paderborn’s last 5 away matches, both teams scored in four of them.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Draw”

Bet on the exact result

Nuremberg 1-1 Paderborn

1. The draw statistics are significant for both teams. Nuremberg has a 60% draw rate at home and Paderborn has a 40% draw rate away, indicating a likely prediction for a draw.
2. Both teams have high concession rates, with Nuremberg averaging 2.6 goals conceded at home and Paderborn conceding 2.2 goals away. This increases the likelihood of both teams scoring.
3. The trend of both teams in their respective matches suggests that a high number of goals is not probable. The probabilities of under 1.5, 2.5, and 4.5 goals in the match are significant. This reinforces the idea of a low final score, making 1-1 a plausible outcome.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Nuremberg struggles to win at home, with just one victory and three draws in their last five matches. They have only scored three goals and conceded four.

Paderborn shows more offensive potential away from home, with two wins, two draws, and a total of eight goals scored. However, they have also conceded eight goals, indicating a leaky defense.

Nuremberg has a low 21% offensive potential at home, while Paderborn has a 57% offensive potential away.

In terms of betting, a draw seems to be the most likely outcome with odds of 3.75. Betting on under 3.5 goals in the match also seems promising, with a success rate of 100% and odds of 1.55.

Finally, both teams scoring also appears probable, according to the probabilities and odds of 1.47.

Overall, a tight match is expected, with likely few goals, but where each team could manage to score.

The potential number of goals

Nuremberg struggles at home with one win and three draws in their last five matches. Offensively, they average 0.6 goals per game and concede 2.6 goals on average.
Paderborn manages their away games fairly well, winning and drawing 40% of the time. They score an average of 1.6 times and concede 2.2 goals per match.
Nuremberg’s offensive potential at home is low, at 21%. However, their defensive potential is impressive at 93% compared to Paderborn’s 79%.
In terms of odds, a draw has a 100% probability with odds of 3.75. Similarly, either Nuremberg wins or it’s a draw with a 100% probability for odds of 1.70.
Regarding goals, less than 3.5 goals in the match has a 100% probability with odds of 1.55.
Finally, both teams to score has a 100% probability with odds of 1.47, despite Nuremberg’s defensive potential.
Based on the numbers, a draw seems likely, potentially with one or two goals in the game.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this 2. Bundesliga match between Nuremberg and Paderborn appears to be a balanced encounter with a tendency towards draws for both teams. Nuremberg’s home performance and Paderborn’s away performance support the notion of a potential draw. Furthermore, the odds suggest a high likelihood of under 2.5 goals in the match but an equally strong likelihood that both teams will score.

Despite Nuremberg’s weaker performances, their solid defensive displays could offset Paderborn’s superior offensive potential. Therefore, the prediction for the exact score would be 1-1, reflecting the offensive and defensive performances of both teams. As a result, the bet that offers an interesting value bet would be a draw.

It is important to remember that despite all statistical calculations and performance analyses, sports betting always involves an element of uncertainty. It is important to bet responsibly.