Tipps FC Porto Guimaraes Coupe du Portugal 17/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Porto wins the match

1. Porto shows a strong home win percentage with 60% victories in their last 5 matches, indicating they have a clear advantage when playing on their home turf.
2. Despite Guimaraes having a slightly lower offensive potential than Porto (43% vs. 57%), Guimaraes has a significantly lower defensive rate (29% vs. 43%). This suggests that Porto has a more efficient offensive ability and better defense, increasing their chances of winning the match.
3. Probability analysis shows a high likelihood of Porto winning the match (74.09%). This statistic strongly favors Porto’s victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. The recent match statistics show that Porto, at home, as well as Guimaraes, away, have offensive capabilities that have allowed them to score an average of 1.6 and 1.2 goals per match respectively.

2. The statistics also show that both teams tend to concede goals: Porto has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match at home, and Guimaraes 0.8 goals away.

3. Finally, the prediction “Over 2.5 goals in the match” has a success probability of 56.99%, which is a reasonably high probability and therefore an argument in itself.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Guimaraes has a very solid defensive performance away from home, conceding only an average of 0.8 goals per match, with a defensive potential of 29%.
2. Porto, despite its offensive strength, has shown inconsistent performances with an average of 1.6 goals per match and has both scored and conceded the same amount of goals (13) in the last 5 home matches.
3. The probability of both teams not scoring is 52.85%, which is higher than the chances of both teams scoring (47.15%). The odds for this scenario are more favorable.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

Porto 2-1 Guimaraes

1. The offensive potential of Porto is superior to that of Guimaraes: according to statistics, Porto has scored an average of 1.6 goals per match at home compared to 1.2 for Guimaraes away. This indicates that Porto is more likely to score goals, especially at home.

2. Porto has a high probability of winning the match: with a 74.09% chance of victory, it is likely that Porto will score at least two goals due to their overall strong performance at home.

3. Past performances: in their last encounter, Porto lost to Guimaraes 1-2 at home. A revenge match could be on the cards and the previous scoreline could be repeated but in favor of Porto this time, considering their other home performances. This supports the exact score prediction of Porto 2-1 Guimaraes.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Porto, at home, boasts a 60% win rate but also a leaky defense with 13 goals conceded. Guimaraes, on the road, excels with an 80% win rate, scoring 9 goals but also conceding the same amount.

On average, Porto impresses offensively at home with 1.6 goals per match, but defensively, it is less glorious, conceding 1.2 goals to opponents. Guimaraes, away from home, shows balanced figures: 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.

According to the odds, Porto has a high probability of winning (74.09%). However, a draw is still possible at 17.62%. Guimaraes, despite its recent performances, is the underdog with only 8.29% chance.

The match seems to favor a scenario rich in goals, with 79.79% for over 1.5 goals, and 56.99% for over 2.5 goals. However, a tighter match would not be surprising, with 67.88% for under 3.5 goals.

Finally, both teams have almost the same chance of scoring (47.15%) or remaining goalless (52.85%).

Considering the latest matches, especially Guimaraes’ victory at Porto, everything points to a fiercely contested match. However, statistics favor Porto at home.

The potential number of goals

Porto has shown a strong performance at home, winning 60% of their last 5 matches. However, Guimaraes also seems to be in good form, winning 80% of their last 5 away matches. Porto has scored as many goals as they have conceded (13), while Guimaraes has a goals scored/conceded ratio of 9/9.

Porto’s offensive potential at home is slightly higher than Guimaraes’ away (57% vs 43%). Their defenses, however, are closer with Porto at 43% and Guimaraes at 29%.

The indicated probability for Porto to win the match is 74.09% with odds of 1.36. The probabilities also suggest over 1.5 goals (odds of 1.22) with a success probability of 79.79%. Furthermore, there is a 67.88% chance of there being less than 3.5 goals in the match (odds of 1.42).

However, the probability of both teams scoring is lower, with a 47.15% chance (odds of 2.00). Taking these factors into account, spectators can expect a Porto victory with a moderate number of goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the prediction suggests that Porto is favored to win the match against Guimaraes, with a strong home success rate (60%) and superior offensive potential. However, Guimaraes’ defensive performances should not be underestimated. The analysis also suggests a “Over 2.5 goals in the match” outcome, and the probability of both teams scoring is considered lower. Surprisingly, a draw could offer interesting betting value, considering the closeness of both teams’ performances. Finally, the prediction suggests an exact score of 2-1 in favor of Porto, based on historical confrontations and recent performances.

That being said, it is important to remember that sports betting remains uncertain and involves a level of risk. It is therefore recommended to bet responsibly.